2021
DOI: 10.1007/s11127-021-00928-4
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Public health and expert failure

Abstract: In a modern democracy, a public health system includes mechanisms for the provision of expert scientific advice to elected officials. The decisions of elected officials generally will be degraded by expert failure, that is, the provision of bad advice. The theory of expert failure suggests that competition among experts generally is the best safeguard against expert failure. Monopoly power of experts increases the chance of expert failure. The risk of expert failure also is greater when scientific advice is pr… Show more

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Cited by 12 publications
(12 citation statements)
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“…For example, consider the case of the SAGE, as discussed by Koppl (2021). The pandemic models SAGE and others used in formulating their advice for the COVID-19 pandemic relied heavily on assuming a homogeneous population (ibid.…”
Section: The Basic Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 3 more Smart Citations
“…For example, consider the case of the SAGE, as discussed by Koppl (2021). The pandemic models SAGE and others used in formulating their advice for the COVID-19 pandemic relied heavily on assuming a homogeneous population (ibid.…”
Section: The Basic Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…2 As a consequence of modeling a homogeneous population, SAGE's advice to the British government was predicated on an analysis that likely overestimated benefits of various mitigation measures. Given that SAGE has significant market power in their role as advisor for the British government (Koppl, 2021), failure on their part could have an effect like that described in Figure 3: A relatively small failure (overestimating herd immunity thresholds and spread) causes the experts to be more pessimistic in their advice. This overestimation becomes an input into the British government's decision-making.…”
Section: The Basic Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 2 more Smart Citations
“… [22] suggest that adverse shocks provide voters with the opportunity to learn new information about incumbents. In recent months, new work has assessed how the policy response to the pandemic affects political consensus ( [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] ). 28 show that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump’ s vote share in the 2020 US presidential election, suggesting that voters may have punished Trump for the management of the pandemic crisis.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%