Causes and consequences of Southern Ocean change: the IPCC SROCC assessment

Meredith, Michael P.; Sommerkorn, Martin; Cassotta, Sandra; Derksen, Chris; Ekaykin, Alexey; Hollowed, Anne B.; Kofinas, Gary P.; Mackintosh, Andrew; Melbourne-Thomas, Jess; Muelbert, Mônica M. C.; Ottersen, Geir; Pritchard, Hamish D.; Schuur, T.; Meijers, Andrew; Hogg, Andrew McC.; Hallberg, Robert; Tagliabue, Alessandro; He, Shengping; Peck, Victoria L

doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-164

Cited by 148 publications

(222 citation statements)

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“…Early projections show that the dominant ice cap climate, e.g., in the case of Iceland, could be replaced by the subpolar oceanic climate (Cfc), which is currently only dominant around the southern shores of the island, including Reykjavik, the country's main urban center, by the end of the century [9], according to the former A1FI fossil-intensive emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [10]. The recent state of the art Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) by the IPCC [4], having one of its six chapters dedicated for the polar regions [11], on the other hand, reveals the latest observed and projected changes and impacts as well as the systemic responses to these.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geobibliography and Bibliometric Networks of Polar Tourism and Climate Change Research

Demiroglu

Hall

2020

Atmosphere

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In late 2019, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their much-awaited Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). High mountain areas, polar regions, low-lying islands and coastal areas, and ocean and marine ecosystems, were separately dealt by experts to reveal the impacts of climate change on these regions, as well as the responses of the natural and human systems inhabiting or related to these regions. The tourism sector was found, among the main systems, influenced by climate change in the oceanic and cryospheric environments. In this study, we deepen the understanding of tourism and climate interrelationships in the polar regions. In doing so, we step outside the climate resilience of polar tourism paradigm and systematically assess the literature in terms of its gaps relating to an extended framework where the impacts of tourism on climate through a combined and rebound effects lens are in question as well. Following a systematic identification and screening on two major bibliometric databases, a final selection of 93 studies, spanning the 2004–2019 period, are visualized in terms of their thematic and co-authorship networks and a study area based geobibliography, coupled with an emerging hot spots analysis, to help identify gaps for future research.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geobibliography and Bibliometric Networks of Polar Tourism and Climate Change Research

Demiroglu

Hall

2020

Atmosphere

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“…They are also caused by alterations of permafrost, which often acts as a basement for foundations. Its high vulnerability to increasing air temperature in the Arctic, which is predicted to continue over the 21st century [9], is widely recognized to be a reason for current or future negative consequences to society [10,11] and represents a natural hazard.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Unlike any other cryospheric object, changes to permafrost cannot be easily observed [9]. The application of a geo-penetrating radar (GPR) to permafrost studies has allowed researchers to reliably recognize thawed and frozen layers, massive ice, and rocks in continuous and discontinuous permafrost [15][16][17][18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The development of methods of subsurface sounding is a priority task under predicted shrinkage of permafrost area, increasing permafrost temperature and active layer thickness [9]. They do not only non-destructively complement the spatial structure of permafrost deduced from "snapshots" of a sampled active layer thickness [19], an exposed parts of geological sections, and survey drilling, which commute disturbance to the thermal regime of soils [26,27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hazards of Activation of Cryogenic Processes in the Arctic Community: A Geopenetrating Radar Study in Lorino, Chukotka, Russia

2020

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The subsurface structure of permafrost is of high significance to forecast landscape dynamics and the engineering stability of infrastructure under human impacts and climate warming, which is a modern challenge for Arctic communities. Application of the non-destructive method of geo-penetrating radar (GPR) survey is a promising way to study it. The study program, which could be used for planning and monitoring of measures of adaptation of Arctic communities to environmental changes is provided in this paper. The main principle was to use etalons of coupled radargrams and archive geological data to interpret changes in the permafrost structure from a grid of 5–10 m deep GPR transects. Here, we show the application of GPR to reconstruct and predict hazards of activation of cryogenic processes from the spatial variability in the structure of permafrost. The cumulative effects of the village and climate change on permafrost were manifested in changes in the active layer thickness from 0.5−1.0 m to up to 3.5 m. Despite that the permafrost degradation has declined due to the improved maintenance of infrastructure and the effects of ground filling application, the hazards of heaving and thermokarst remain for the built-up area in Lorino.

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“…In the Arctic, rapid and extensive impacts from climate change have already had significant implications for social, ecological and geophysical systems, with further changes projected even by emissions-conservative scenarios [1]. According to some projections, the summer Arctic may be nearly sea ice free by the 2030s [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Four Paradoxes of the User–Provider Interface: A Responsible Innovation Framework for Sea Ice Services

2020

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In the Arctic region, sea ice retreat as a decadal-scale crisis is creating a challenging environment for navigating long-term sustainability. Innovations in sea ice services can help marine users to anticipate sea ice concentration, thickness and motion, plan ahead, as well as increase the safety and sustainability of marine operations. Increasingly however, policy makers and information service providers confront paradoxical decision-making contexts in which contradictory solutions are needed to manage uncertainties across different spatial and temporal scales. This article proposes a forward-looking sea ice services framework that acknowledges four paradoxes pressuring sea ice service provision: the paradoxes of performing, contradictory functions embedded in sea ice services, contradicting desired futures and the paradox of responsible innovation. We draw on the results from a multi-year co-production process of (sub)seasonal sea ice services structured around scoping interviews, workshops and a participatory scenario process with representatives of marine sectors, fishers, hunters, metservice providers, and policy experts. Our proposed framework identifies institutionalized coproduction processes, enhanced decision support, paradoxical thinking and dimensions of responsible innovation as tactics necessary to address existing tensions in sea ice services. We highlight the role of socio-economic scenarios in implementing these tactics in support of responsible innovation in sea ice social–ecological systems. The article concludes with a discussion of questions around equity and responsibility raised by the ultimate confirmation that enhanced information, data infrastructures, and service provisions will not benefit all actors equally.

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Causes and consequences of Southern Ocean change: the IPCC SROCC assessment

Cited by 148 publications

References 0 publications

Geobibliography and Bibliometric Networks of Polar Tourism and Climate Change Research

Geobibliography and Bibliometric Networks of Polar Tourism and Climate Change Research

Hazards of Activation of Cryogenic Processes in the Arctic Community: A Geopenetrating Radar Study in Lorino, Chukotka, Russia

Four Paradoxes of the User–Provider Interface: A Responsible Innovation Framework for Sea Ice Services

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