Cervical Cancer in Khon Kaen, Thailand: Analysis of 1990-2014 Incidence Data and Prediction of Future Trends

Abstract

Background:Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer of women in Thailand. There have been no reports of incidence and future in Khon Kaen, a province in northeastern Thailand, where the relatively high prevalence gives evaluation of cervical cancer screening a high priority. Objectives:To determine cervical cancer incidence rates in Khon Kaen for 1990–2014 and predict future trends until 2029. Methods:Cancer incidence data from the Khon Kaen population-based cancer registry were analyzed and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were estimated. Joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort modeling were applied for data from 1990 to 2014 and the Nordpred package was employed to project trends from 2015 to 2029. Results:Between 1990 and 2014, a total of 3,258 cases were diagnosed with ICD-O code C53 (invasive cervical cancer). Before 2005, an annual percentage change (APC) varied widely, with outliers in 1993 and 1999. The APC computed with the Joinpoint software decreased at -2.8% (95% CI;-4.5 to -1.1) per year on average. After 2005, a rise was noted until 2008, after which a drop became apparent with an APC of -8.0% (95% CI; -14.5 to -1.1) per year on average. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the decrease in incidence. The three projection method suggested that incidence rates would continue to decrease in the future.Conclusions:A decreasing trend in incidence of cervical cancer in Khon Kaen was noted from 1990 to 2014 with a prediction of continuous decrease until 2029. Maintenance and improvement of the screening program is advised.

The Trend and Prediction of Cervical Cancer Incidence in Delhi, India: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

“…Globally, the cervical cancer ASIR declined, albeit some countries like East Asia and Southern sub-Saharan Africa showed an upward trend (Zhang et al, 2019)). Our study revealed a declining trend with EAPC -3.0% which was marginally higher than EAPC reported in Khon Kaen Thailand (-2.8.%; 1990-2014) (Saenrueang et al, 2019). The decline of cervical cancer is primarily a result of the change in preventive measures such as behaviours of social culture factors, improvement in health care services, enhancement in the literacy rate, delay in marriage age, and family planning behaviours (Vu et al, 2018).…”

National Cancer Control Program of Thailand

“…A decrease was projected in all geographic zones except the North-East during 2012-2025 (Virani et al, 2017). However, a decreasing trend in incidence of cervical cancer in Khon Kaen was evident from 1990 to 2014 with a prediction of continuous decrease until 2029 (Saenrueang et al, 2019). Cervical cancer incidence in Songkhla peaked around 1998-2000 and then dropped by 4.7% per year (Sriplung et al, 2014).…”

Survival after Diagnosis of Cervical Cancer Patients at a Tertiary Referral Hospital in Northeast Thailand

“…Cervical cancer (CC) was the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide, following breast, colorectal, and lung cancers based on GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates (Farahat et al, 2021;Shivamurthy et al, 2022). There were an estimated 311,365 global deaths from CC and 569,847 new cases, or incidence of 15.1 per 100,000 women, in 2018 (Anfinan and Sait, 2020).…”