Challenges to the Adaptation of Double Cropping Agricultural Systems in Brazil under Changes in Climate and Land Cover

Abstract

The wide adoption of highly productive soy–maize double cropping has allowed Brazil to become one of the main producers and exporters of these commodities. However, land cover and climate change could affect the viability of double cropping due to a shortening of the rainy season, and both crops could be affected. The goals of this study were to evaluate if adaptation measures such as adoption of shorter-cycle cultivars and delaying sowing dates are effective to maintain soybean and maize yield in the main producing regions in Brazil. We used a crop model and four climate models to simulate double cropping in two climate scenarios that differ in Amazonia and Cerrado deforestation levels. We tested if 10 soybean and 17 maize sowing dates and three cultivar combination could reduce the impacts of a shorter rainy season in double cropping yield and gross revenue. Results showed a decrease in maize yield due to a delay of soybean sowing dates and rainfall reduction during the growing season. Adaptation through delaying sowing dates and the adoption of short cycle cultivars was not effective to maintain system revenue in all the study regions in a scenario with high deforestation levels.

CIDF-WSN: A Collaborative Interest and Data Forwarding Strategy for Named Data Wireless Sensor Networks

“…These aforementioned readings highly affect the productivity of the crop and require well-timed delivery at the control center to yield better growth. This is because any change in these parameters may directly affect the growth of underlying crop and may require immediate attention (e.g., The 1-degree Celsius increase in the seasonal temperature may lower the overall productivity of rice crop by 9%, while the same increase may lower the productivity of corn crop by 10%) [ 37 ]. Therefore, we take into consideration the above-mentioned environmental conditions which have substantial importance in attaining the fine-quality final product.…”

Closing the Gap: Sustainable Intensification Implications of Increased Corn Yields and Quality for Second-Crop (safrinha) in Mato Grosso, Brazil

“…Recent analysis using 2000-2015 weather data indicates a 6 to 8% reduction in safrinha corn GY under scenarios of increased Amazon and Cerrado deforestation in MT [77]. Crop modelling with actual climate and projected climate change (2011 to 2050) indicate safrinha corn grain yield losses of 20% that are statistically significant in the Cerrado in MT and central/southern Goiás states [78]. Modelling "business as usual" climate change (2013-2050; RCP 8.5) shows reductions in areas suitable for back-to-back cropping in Matopiba (−61%) and MT/central Brazil (−17 to −18%) [79].…”

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Sowing and the Onset of the Rainy Season in a Region of Large Agricultural Expansion in Brazil

“…Western Bahia continues to stand out for its worldwide market position, with approximately 40% of cotton output, or 600,000 tons, exported to Asian nations (China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Vietnam), and 60% of soybean production, or 3.18 million tons, exported to China and the Netherlands [4]. The high production and export rates achieved by the region could be partly explained by the adoption of double cropping systems, where farmers sow a second crop (maize or cotton) in the middle of the rainy season after sowing soybeans in the beginning of the rainy season [5,6]; and the wide adoption of irrigation, which increased its area by around 800% from 1990 to 2020 [7].…”

“…Double cropping systems are favored in regions with a high annual precipitation rate, a long rainy season (>200 days), and a low variability in the rainy season onset [5,6,8]. The viability of double cropping depends on farmers successfully sowing soybeans right at the beginning of the rainy season.…”

“…Recent studies indicate that the rainy season is starting later and shortening in central Brazil [11][12][13][14] due to both climate change and widespread Amazon and Cerrado deforestation. This worrying scenario is projected to intensify in the future [15], with disastrous potential impacts in case local farmers fail to adapt [5,6].…”