Challenging the Greenhouse Effect Specification and the Climate Sensitivity of the IPCC

2019

PSIJ

Self Cite

The greenhouse effect concept explains the Earth's elevated temperature. The IPCC endorses the anthropogenic global warming theory, and it assumes that the greenhouse (GH) effect is due to the longwave (LW) absorption by GH gases and clouds. The IPCC's GH definition lets to understand that the LW absorption is responsible for the downward radiation to the surface. According to the energy laws, it is not possible that the LW absorption of 155.6 Wm -2 by the GH gases could re-emit downward LW radiation of 345.6 Wm -2 on the Earth's surface. When the shortwave (SW) absorption is decreased from this total LW radiation, the rest of the radiation is 270.6 Wm -2 . This LW radiation downward is the imminent cause for the GH effect increasing the surface temperature by the 33°C. It includes LW absorption by the GH gases and clouds in the atmosphere and the latent and sensible heating effects. Without the latent and sensible heating impacts in the atmosphere, the downward LW radiation could not close the energy balance of the surface. The contribution of CO 2 in the GH effect is 7.4% corresponding to 2.5°C in temperature. This result does not only mutilate the image of CO 2 as a strong GH gas, but it has further consequences in climate models. It turned out that the IPCC's climate model showing a climate sensitivity (CS) of 1.2°C (caused by CO 2 effects only) could not be fitted into the total GH effect of CO 2 . A climate model showing a CS of 0.6°C matches the CO 2 contribution in the GH effect.

“…In this figure is a difference in respect to the same of the previous study [3]. The SW absorption flux by the atmosphere has not been included into the GH effect.…”

Section: Calculation Basis Of the Greenhouse Effectmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The author has used the energy flux values of the previous study [3], and they have been depicted for illustrating the GH effect in Fig. 1.…”

Section: Calculation Basis Of the Greenhouse Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Calculation Basis Of the Greenhouse Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ollila [3] has included the SW absorption by the atmosphere into the GH effect. The main objective of this study is to analyze if this is a feasible and justified conclusion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The Greenhouse Effect Definition

2019

PSIJ

Self Cite

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Simulate the Current Temperature Only If the Shortwave Radiation Anomaly of the 2000s Has Been Omitted

2021

CJAST

The research article of Gillett et al. was published in Nature Climate Change (NCC) in March 2021. The objective of the NCC study was to simulate human-induced forcings to warming by applying 13 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate models. NCC did not accept the author’s remarks as a “Matters arising” article. The purpose of this article is to detail the original three remarks and one additional remark: 1) the discrepancy between the graphs and reported numerical values, 2) the forcings of aerosols and clouds, 3) the positive water feedback, and 4) the calculation basis of the Paris agreement. The most important finding is that General Circulation Models (GCMs) used in simulations omit the significant shortwave anomaly from 2001 to 2019, which causes a temperature error of 0.3°C according to climate change physics of Gillett et al. For the year 2019, this error is 0.8°C showing the magnitude of shortwave anomaly impact. The main reason for this error turns out to be the positive water feedback generally applied in climate models. The scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement is faulty for the same reason.

The Pause End and Major Temperature Impacts during Super El Niños are Due to Shortwave Radiation Anomalies

2020

PSIJ

Self Cite

The hiatus or temperature pause during the 21 st century has been the subject of numerous research studies with very different results and proposals. In this study, two simple climate models have been applied to test the causes of global temperature changes. The climate change factors have been shortwave (SW) radiation changes, changes in cloudiness and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events assessed as the ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) values and anthropogenic climate drivers. The results show that a simple climate model assuming no positive water feedback follows the satellite temperature changes very well, the mean absolute error (MAE) during the period from 2001 to July 2019 being 0.073°C and 0.082°C in respect to GISTEMP. The IPCC's simple climate model shows for the same period errors of 0.191°C and 0.128°C respectively. The temperature in 2017-2018 was about 0.2°C above the average value in 2002-2014. The conclusion is that the pause was over after 2014 and the SW anomaly forcing was the major reason for this temperature increase. SW anomalies have had their greatest impacts on the global temperature during very strong (super) El Niño events in 1997-98 and 2015-16, providing a new perspective for ENSO events. A positive SW anomaly continued after 2015-16 which may explain the weak La Niña 2016 PSIJ, 24(2): 1-20, 2020; Article no.PSIJ.55149 2 temperature impacts, and a negative SW anomaly after 1997-98 may have contributed two strong La Niña peaks 1998-2001. No cause and effect connection could be found between the SW radiation and temperature anomalies in Nino areas. Original Research Article