Changes in the linear relationship of ENSO–PDO under the global warming

Kwon, Min Serk; Yeh, Sang‐Wook; Park, Young-Gyu; Lee, Yoon-Kyoung

doi:10.1002/joc.3497

Cited by 33 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The ERSST of Figure a accompanies positive SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar with Deser and Blackmon [] and Kwon et al . []. In the simulated SST anomalies in Figure b, we do not explore any correlation with the ENSO state (this Figure is not shown), and this relationship cannot easily be inferred from Figure b since we use composite map without empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the ENSO phases are mixed.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of aerosols in multidecadal SST variability simulations over the North Pacific

et al. 2015

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The influence of aerosol emissions on North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the twentieth century is investigated using a comparison between historical simulations with and without anthropogenic aerosol changes. The historical simulations using the Hadley Global Environment Model version 2 show that there is a common externally forced component in relation to the twentieth century North Pacific SST variability. This matches a number of important temporal and spatial characteristics of the observed multidecadal SST variability from the 1920s to 1990s, which is not found in experiments without aerosol changes. This paper explores both direct and indirect aerosol influences, and finds that in this model the aerosol-cloud interactions dominate the total aerosol forcing of the surface energy budget. These aerosol-cloud processes were not commonly included in most models in the previous (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3) generation, which may explain why the potential role of aerosols in Pacific variability has not been previously discussed. However, unlike recently reported aerosol drivers of Atlantic SST variability, the aerosol surface radiative forcing pattern does not map directly onto the historical spatial surface radiative and SST changes but is instead modulated by circulation changes to the Aleutian Low. These circulation changes share common features with previously reported studies of natural drivers of Pacific variability, suggesting that both forced and internally generated SST variability may be modulated via the same circulation response.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of aerosols in multidecadal SST variability simulations over the North Pacific

et al. 2015

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“…The risk is considered low, given the fact that we include physically motivated predictor variables such as moisture transport and vertical stability. It has been argued that inclusion of precipitation and moisture‐related predictor variables can reduce the risk of the nonstationarity problem in statistical downscaling [ Diaz et al ., ; Meehl and Teng , ; Sterl et al ., ; Kug et al ., ; Herceg Bulić et al ., ; Kwon et al ., ; Stevenson , ; Coats et al ., ; Zhou et al ., ], but this assumption may miss some theoretical foundations, too [see also Smith et al ., ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections

2015

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Seasonal mean rainfall projections for Hawai'i are given based on statistical downscaling of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global model results for two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The spatial information content of our statistical downscaling method is improved over previous efforts through the inclusion of spatially extensive, high-quality monthly rainfall data set and the use of improved large-scale climate predictor information. Predictor variables include moisture transport in the middle atmosphere (700 hPa), vertical temperature gradients, and geopotential height fields of the 1000 and 500 hPa layers. The results allow for the first time to derive a spatially interpolated map with future rainfall change estimates for the main Hawaiian Islands. The statistical downscaling was applied to project wet (November-April) and dry (May-October) season rainfall anomalies for the middle and late 21st century. Overall, the statistical downscaling gives more reliable results for the wet season than for the dry season. The wet-season results indicate a pronounced dipole structure between windward facing mountain slopes and the leeward side of most of the islands. The climatically wet regions on the windward slopes of the mountain regions are expected to become wetter or remain stable in their seasonal precipitation amounts. On the climatically dry leeward sides of Kaua'i, O'ahu, Maui, and Hawai'i Island, future precipitation exhibits the strongest drying trends. The projected future rainfall anomaly pattern is associated with a circulation anomaly that resembles a shift in the position or strength of the subtropical high and the average location of extratropical troughs. These new results suggest that a negative trend dominates the area-averaged changes in the statistical downscaling over the Hawaiian Islands. However, the islands are expected to experience a greater contrast between the wet and dry regions in the future.

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“…Without aggressive reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. Southwest is projected to experience unprecedented drought conditions within this century (e.g., Ault et al, ; Cook et al, ; Seager & Vecchi, ). Future changes in ENSO and PDO in response to climate change remain inconclusive (Cai et al, ; Wang et al, ), though results from a multimodel ensemble study by Kwon et al () suggest that the linear relationship between ENSO and PDO during the boreal winter (December–February) may become stronger under greenhouse gas forcing. Asian dust outflow to the Pacific appears to have increased as a result of desertification (Chin et al, ), but it is not known if and how climate change will influence trans‐Pacific transport in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Controls Springtime Fine Dust Variability in the Western United States? Investigating the 2002–2015 Increase in Fine Dust in the U.S. Southwest

2017

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We use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to investigate the role of meteorology in controlling the interannual variability of fine dust concentrations in the western United States during 2002–2015 March–May. We then develop a prediction model to explore the causes of an observed increase in fine dust concentrations during March in the Southwest. For each spring month, 54–61% of the total variance in fine dust anomalies can be explained by the first two leading EOF modes, which consist of a coherent pattern of covariability across the West and a dipole northwest‐southwest pattern. We identify the key meteorological controlling factors to be regional precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture, which are in turn mostly driven by large‐scale changes in sea surface temperature and/or atmospheric circulation patterns, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In addition, fluctuations in the trans‐Pacific transport of Asian dust likely contribute to fine dust variability in March and April. We find that March fine dust concentrations have increased from 2002 to 2015 in the Southwest (0.06 ± 0.04 μg m−3 a−1, p < 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that these increases are associated with the following: (1) regionally drier and warmer conditions driven by constructive interference between ENSO and PDO, (2) soil moisture reductions in areas spanning the North American deserts, and (3) enhanced trans‐Pacific transport. Our results provide an observational basis for improving dust emission schemes and for assessing future dust activity under climate change.

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Changes in the linear relationship of ENSO–PDO under the global warming

Cited by 33 publications

References 42 publications

Influence of aerosols in multidecadal SST variability simulations over the North Pacific

Influence of aerosols in multidecadal SST variability simulations over the North Pacific

Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections

What Controls Springtime Fine Dust Variability in the Western United States? Investigating the 2002–2015 Increase in Fine Dust in the U.S. Southwest

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