Changes in the Mechanisms Causing Rapid Drought Cessation in the Southeastern United States

Maxwell, Justin T.; Knapp, Paul A.; Ortegren, Jason T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Soulé, Peter T.

doi:10.1002/2017gl076261

Cited by 19 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…were nearly identical to those of non-tropical precipitation days ( Figures S3 and 3c and 3d). This is consistent with the dominance of frontal storm types in the fall precipitation climatology (Kunkel, Easterling, et al, 2012) and rapid drought cessation from high-intensity precipitation events (Maxwell et al, 2017) in the southeastern United States. Despite the fact that fall is the peak tropical cyclone season in the SE-Gulf, tropical cyclones did not dominate the fall precipitation record.…”

Section: Geophysical Research Letterssupporting

confidence: 84%

Increased Fall Precipitation in the Southeastern United States Driven by Higher‐Intensity, Frontal Precipitation

Bishop

Williams

Seager

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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During 1895‐2018, fall precipitation increased by nearly 40% in the southeastern United States north of the Gulf of Mexico due to increased circulation around the western North Atlantic Subtropical High, which enhanced moisture transports into the region. We find here that these increases in southeastern U.S. fall precipitation manifested almost entirely as increases in precipitation intensity, not frequency. Further, the enhanced moisture transports increased precipitation totals far more on the highest‐intensity precipitation days than on the lower‐intensity days, leading to nearly all of the increase to be delivered on extreme (top‐5% intensity) precipitation days. Eighty‐seven percent of the fall precipitation increase was driven by non‐tropical storms (mostly frontal), not tropical cyclones, though the proportion of precipitation falling as either storm type did not change. Further research is needed to evaluate whether these observed precipitation increases are likely to continue, stabilize, or reverse.

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Section: Geophysical Research Letterssupporting

confidence: 84%

Increased Fall Precipitation in the Southeastern United States Driven by Higher‐Intensity, Frontal Precipitation

Bishop

Williams

Seager

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…When these streams interact with the coastal topography of the U.S. West Coast they can cause extreme high precipitation, sometimes so high that persistent droughts can be terminated in a few weather events (see, e.g., Dettinger 2013Dettinger , 2016. In addition there has been work on how tropical cyclones can contribute to drought relief or termination in the southeast United States (e.g., Kam et al 2013;Maxwell et al 2013). In more general prior work on DO&T, Karl et al (1987) noted that the probability of amelioration or termination of a drought depends on the mean annual cycle of precipitation, being highest in wet seasons that have the possibility of extreme wet conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dettinger (2013) argued that drought onsets are slower than terminations because negative precipitation anomalies cannot exceed the negative of the climatological precipitation, but positive anomalies easily can. However, Maxwell et al (2017) specifically studied rapid drought terminations at the local scale across the southeast United States. For this region they found that rapid termination was most likely in summer and fall with fronts and tropical cyclones the two most likely causes and atmospheric rivers responsible for considerably fewer terminations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms of Seasonal Soil Moisture Drought Onset and Termination in the Southern Great Plains

Seager

Nakamura

Ting

2019

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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Mechanisms of drought onset and termination are examined across North America with a focus on the southern Plains using data from land surface models and regional and global reanalyses for 1979–2017. Continental-scale analysis of covarying patterns reveals a tight coupling between soil moisture change over time and intervening precipitation anomalies. The southern Great Plains are a geographic center of patterns of hydrologic change. Drying is induced by atmospheric wave trains that span the Pacific and North America and place northerly flow anomalies above the southern Plains. In the southern Plains winter is least likely, and fall most likely, for drought onset and spring is least likely, and fall or summer most likely, for drought termination. Southern Plains soil moisture itself, which integrates precipitation over time, has a clear relationship to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with cold conditions favoring dry soils. Soil moisture change, however, though clearly driven by precipitation, has a weaker relation to SSTs and a strong relation to internal atmospheric variability. Little evidence is found of connection of drought onset and termination to driving by temperature anomalies. An analysis of particular drought onsets and terminations on the seasonal time scale reveals commonalities in terms of circulation and moisture transport anomalies over the southern Plains but a variety of ways in which these are connected into the large-scale atmosphere and ocean state. Some onsets are likely to be quite predictable due to forcing by cold tropical Pacific SSTs (e.g., fall 2010). Other onsets and all terminations are likely not predictable in terms of ocean conditions.

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“…TCs are characterized by high winds, coastal storm surge, and extremely intense precipitation that can extend far inland after a TC makes landfall and weakens. TC‐related extreme precipitation frequently contributes to drought demise, and the impacts have been discussed using both observed and model data (Kam et al, ; Lam et al, ; Maxwell et al, ; Maxwell et al, ; Maxwell et al, ; Misra & Bastola, ). In the Northeast United States, two thirds of the extremes in precipitation during the hurricane season have been related to TCs (Barlow, ), and the affected region from one TC often spans several hundred kilometers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Demise Attribution Over CONUS

Dirmeyer

2020

JGR Atmospheres

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Compared with drought onset, the quantification and attribution of drought demise are not well studied. Meteorological droughts usually terminate more rapidly than they initiate, making it hard to define a transition period leading to drought demise with monthly data. In this study, methods of quantifying and attributing drought demise are applied to the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA‐2) using modified Standardized Precipitation Index representing meteorological drought calculated at pentad intervals to resolve subseasonal demise events. Methodologies to attribute three specific causes of drought demise in nine climate regional divisions over conterminous U.S. (CONUS) are developed. The three phenomenological causes are tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and changes in land atmospheric feedback. Atmospheric river is the most common of the factors for drought demise, over most of the regions in the eastern, and central U.S. tropical cyclones are important causes over the Southwest, the South in fall, and the Southeast in summer. Evolving land atmospheric feedback is a factor mainly over the central and southwestern United States. These attributions estimated may not be representative of the long‐term climatologies of drought demise due to the short duration of MERRA‐2. A representativeness test is conducted for estimating the three impacts on drought demise using subsamples from a large ensemble of climate model simulation including several centuries of data. Thirty to forty years is not long enough to be representative of local long‐term statistics for the attribution of the causes of demise of extreme events like drought but may be adequate at regional scales.

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Changes in the Mechanisms Causing Rapid Drought Cessation in the Southeastern United States

Cited by 19 publications

References 51 publications

Increased Fall Precipitation in the Southeastern United States Driven by Higher‐Intensity, Frontal Precipitation

Increased Fall Precipitation in the Southeastern United States Driven by Higher‐Intensity, Frontal Precipitation

Mechanisms of Seasonal Soil Moisture Drought Onset and Termination in the Southern Great Plains

Drought Demise Attribution Over CONUS

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