Changes of Southern Hemisphere westerlies in the future warming climate

Deng, Kaiqiang; Azorín-Molina, César; Yang, Song; Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Gangfeng; Minola, Lorenzo; Chen, Deliang

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106040

Cited by 41 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The decrease in NH JJA is consistent with Kornhuber and Tamarin-Brodsky (2021) and is likely related to reduced large-scale baroclinicity (Lehmann et al, 2014;Chang, 2017). In the SH the change is likely linked to the increased speed of the midlatitude jets (Barnes and Polvani, 2013;Bracegirdle et al, 2020b;Goyal et al, 2021), which has been shown to be connected to the increased width of the Hadley cell (Ceppi and Hartmann, 2013) and local increases in baroclinicity (Deng et al, 2022). Further investigation would be required to determine the exact processes driving the changes in cyclone speed and whether this was present throughout the cyclone life cycle.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 73%

Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

Priestley

Catto

2022

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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Abstract. Future changes in extratropical cyclones and the associated storm tracks are uncertain. Using the new CMIP6 models, we investigate changes to seasonal mean storm tracks and composite wind speeds at different levels of the troposphere for the winter and summer seasons in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Changes are assessed across four different climate scenarios. The seasonal mean storm tracks are predicted to shift polewards in the SH and also in the North Pacific, with an extension into Europe for the North Atlantic storm track. Overall, the number of cyclones will decrease by ∼5 % by the end of the 21st century, although the number of extreme cyclones will increase by 4 % in NH winter. Cyclone wind speeds are projected to strengthen throughout the troposphere in the winter seasons and also summer in the SH, with a weakening projected in NH summer, although there are minimal changes in the maximum wind speed in the lower troposphere. Changes in wind speeds are concentrated in the warm sector of cyclones, and the area of extreme winds may be up to 40 % larger by the end of the century. The largest changes are seen for the SSP5-85 scenario, although a large amount of change can be mitigated by restricting warming to that seen in the SSP1-26 and 2-45 scenarios. Extreme cyclones show larger increases in wind speed and peak vorticity than the average-strength cyclones, with the extreme cyclones showing a larger increase in wind speed in the warm sector.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 73%

Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

Priestley

Catto

2022

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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“…A recovery in the TS has been detected since the 2000s, which is believed to be related to the Pacific and Atlantic climate variations (e.g., Azorin‐Molina et al., 2018; Zeng et al., 2019; Deng et al., 2022a, Deng et al., 2022b). Thus, we will examine the phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic dominant modes in the sea surface temperature (SST), that is, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO), and explore their relationships with the TS reversal.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes

et al. 2022

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The near‐surface wind speed over land has declined in recent decades, a trend known as terrestrial stilling (TS). However, recent studies have indicated a reversal of the TS during the last decade, triggering renovated interest in the future wind speed changes. This study examines the TS over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) land areas and explores its future changes under Model Inter‐comparison Projection Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The results show that the NH mid‐latitude TS will likely continue during the whole 21st century under mid‐to‐high greenhouse warmings (SSPs‐245, 370, and 585). Nevertheless, if the world reduces carbon emissions substantially (SSP‐126), the TS will be interrupted and likely reversed after the mid‐21st century. The projected TS shows seasonal differences, with the largest (smallest) decreasing trends of wind speed in boreal summer (winter). Moreover, the TS reversal during the last decade is suggested as a multi‐decadal fluctuation related to the Pacific and Atlantic multi‐decadal oscillations. In addition, this study proposes that increased upper‐air warming in the future climate could play a key role in reducing the NH mid‐latitude surface wind speed. The continuing TS provides strong implications for the near‐surface environment and wind energy development, particularly for countries in the NH mid‐latitudes.

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“…In short, we conclude that the higher emissions could cause a more significant difference in SAT gradient between the two hemispheres, which induces a more significant decrease in NSWS over the NH and a weaker increase in NSWS over the SH. In a recent study, Deng et al43 also found that the SH westerlies will be enhanced under global warming, which is induced by the changes in the equator-to-pole air temperature gradient. Besides, tropospheric circulation changes related to some natural internal variabilities (such as North Atlantic Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, etc.)…”

mentioning

confidence: 96%

Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections

Shen

Zha

et al. 2022

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the CESM2 has the best ability in reproducing the observed NSWS trends, although all models examined are generally not doing well. Based on projections of CESM2, the global NSWS will decrease from 2021 to 2100 under all three SSPs. The projected NSWS declines significantly over the north of 20°N, especially across North America, Europe, and the mid‐to‐high latitudes of Asia; meanwhile, it increases over the south of 20°N. Under SSP585, there would be more light‐windy days and fewer strong‐windy days than those under SSP245, which leads to a significant global NSWS decline. Robust hemispheric‐asymmetric changes in the NSWS could be due to the temperature gradient in the two hemispheres under global warming, with −1.2%, −3.5%, and −4.1% in the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.5% in the Southern Hemisphere, for the near‐term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060), and long‐term (2081–2100), respectively.

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Changes of Southern Hemisphere westerlies in the future warming climate

Cited by 41 publications

References 48 publications

Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes

Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections

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