Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru

Abstract

The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied.

Can Latin American Voters see the Future?

“…However, these models may not be well-suited to forecasting elections in young democracies (Bertholini, Rennó, & Turgeon, 2022). The limited number of elections in Latin America constitutes the principal obstacle to employing structural models in the region (Arce & Vera, 2022). Researchers have attempted to deal with this problem in two ways.…”