Civilian Nuclear Cooperation and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Bluth, Christoph; Kroenig, Matthew; Lee, Rensselaer; Sailor, W.C.; Fuhrmann, Matthew

doi:10.1162/isec_c_00007

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They are not alone in this; the pessimistic view of proliferation is shared by a majority of analysts (Allison 2010). This is based on the diffusion of civil nuclear technology which has increased the number of states with the technological resources and fissile materials that would enable them to develop nuclear weapons, and the actions of a small number of states that have not joined the NPT or seem to violate their commitments under the NPT (Bluth et al 2010). But it ignores both the record of success of the NPT and the changed international environment in which for most states there is no security requirement for a nuclear deterrent and the costs of nuclear acquisition far outweigh any conceivable benefits (Sagan 1996/97).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Irrelevance of ‘Trusting Relationships’ in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Reconsidering the Dynamics of Proliferation

Bluth¹

2011

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations

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In a recent paper Jan Ruzicka and Nicholas J. Wheeler have posited that the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty (NPT) is an example of several 'trusting relationships'. The authors assert that 'since the end of the 1990s the trusting relationships embodied in the NPT have come under strain' and that this accounts for the fact that the 'treaty is facing growing pressures that are eroding what has been an effective barrier to nuclear weapons proliferation'. This article questions the assumptions underlying this analysis. It argues that the approach taken by Ruzicka and Wheeler fundamentally misconceives the dynamics of nuclear non-proliferation. The policy implications generated by this approach are impractical and downright dangerous as they fail to address the causes of proliferation and instead exacerbate the problem further.The proliferation of nuclear weapons is widely perceived by political leaders as one of the major problems of global security in the contemporary era. This is clear from a litany of public pronouncements by US presidents, actions taken by the United Nations and declaratory policies of other states. For example, the commitment by the British coalition government in 2010 to the renewal of its strategic nuclear deterrent was based on the uncertain trajectory of nuclear proliferation, rather than present and certain risks (HM Government 2010a and 2010b). In recent years the academic expert community has renewed its efforts to unravel the causes of proliferation and understand the risks to the non-proliferation regime embodied in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and associated agreements.Broadly speaking, the factors that cause states to acquire or to forgo nuclear weapons are security, domestic politics, norms or psychological factors (Sagan 1996/97;Hymans 2006;Solingen 2007;Potter and Mukhatzhanova 2008). One of the key problems in developing a theoretical basis for the understanding of nuclear proliferation is the fact that it is actually very rare, and in each case the causal factors seem to differ significantly. One hundred and eighty-nine states are members of the NPT, including five nuclear states. There are only four states that are not members of the NPT and that have nuclear weapons. Of the four states that acquired nuclear weapons outside the NPT regime, the last one to make the decision to go nuclear and that received civilian nuclear assistance started its nuclear programme 38 years ago

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Irrelevance of ‘Trusting Relationships’ in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Reconsidering the Dynamics of Proliferation

Bluth¹

2011

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations

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“…The accumulation of information on nuclear issues since 1945 has been most valuable to studies of the causes of nuclear proliferation (e.g., Sagan 1996Sagan /1997Singh & Way 2004;Hymans 2006Hymans , 2012Jo & Gartzke 2007;Solingen 2007Solingen , 2012Fuhrmann 2008Fuhrmann , 2009aFuhrmann ,b, 2012Gartzke & Kroenig 2009Kroenig 2009aKroenig ,b, 2010Bluth et al 2010 Mehta 2015). 2 There has also been steady growth in the acceptance of quantitative methods by international relations scholars and policy makers.…”

Section: Studying the Shadow Of Nuclear Consequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nukes with Numbers: Empirical Research on the Consequences of Nuclear Weapons for International Conflict

Gartzke

Kroenig

2016

Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.

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Research on nuclear security has gone quantitative. Rapid growth in empirical approaches to the consequences of nuclear weapons in recent years promises to settle some controversies, even as it initiates or resurrects debates that may eventually be resolved with better estimates or data. The toolkit for studying nuclear security had long been bereft of quantitative approaches, undermining the virtuous cycle between theory and evidence. New data and growing confidence in statistical approaches have finally produced a systematic empirical literature on the consequences of nuclear weapons. We review existing studies, organizing the literature along thematic lines. We also discuss challenges facing the emergent quantitative literature and suggest several avenues for future research. Although the terminus of the basic research agenda has been anticipated more than once, the literature on nuclear consequences has shown a remarkable ability to generate novel and often unexpected research questions.

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“…Fuhrmann also includes a number of cases in which NCAs were offered to a state that was known to be exploring a nuclear weapons option in an attempt to provide economic carrots to keep the state from pursuing nuclear weapons to completion. And Fuhrmann includes NCAs that were negotiated and signed but then canceled before coming into fruition (Kroenig in Bluth et al 2010).…”

Section: New Supply-side Research: Bringing Back the Fuelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation

Sagan

2011

Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.

112

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This critical review of the new political science literature on the causes of nuclear weapons proliferation consists of four parts. The first section briefly presents what we know about which states developed nuclear weapons and which states started but abandoned weapons development programs. I highlight the problems that result from uncertainty about the accuracy and completeness of the data. The second and third sections review the literature on the spread of the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons. We still lack robust knowledge about the relationship between the development of civilian nuclear power programs and nuclear weapons acquisition. The next two sections review the literature on the demand for nuclear weapons. Comparative case studies and statistical studies have improved our understanding of the diversity of motives for weapons development and restraints, but serious gaps in our knowledge remain. The sixth section outlines alternative theories about the potential impact of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on nuclear weapons programs decisions. Finally, I lay out a future research agenda to address the weaknesses in our current understanding of the causes of nuclear proliferation. 225 Review in Advance first posted online on March 21, 2011. (Changes may still occur before final publication online and in print.) Changes may still occur before final publication online and in print

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Civilian Nuclear Cooperation and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Cited by 16 publications

References 9 publications

The Irrelevance of ‘Trusting Relationships’ in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Reconsidering the Dynamics of Proliferation

The Irrelevance of ‘Trusting Relationships’ in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Reconsidering the Dynamics of Proliferation

Nukes with Numbers: Empirical Research on the Consequences of Nuclear Weapons for International Conflict

The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation

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