Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect?

Abstract

Recent and future climate change in CanadaWarming trends have accelerated globally, with overall annual air temperature increases of nearly 1 °C during the period 1880-2017 (5). The years 2015 to 2017 were clearly warmer than any previous years (6), and the last three decades were warmer than any decade since 1850 (7). This trend varies geographically, with greater and faster warming over the Arctic and sub-Arctic basins, particularly in northeastern Canada, due to the rapid decrease of sea-ice and snow cover (8,9).Since 1948, the rate of warming in Canada as a whole has been more than two times that of the global mean, and the rate of warming in northern Canada (north of 60°N) has been roughly three times or more the global mean (10). Over northeastern Canada (north of 60°N and east of 110°W), the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.75-1.2 °C per decade over the last three decades compared with around 0.18 °C per decade globally (5). Mean air temperature will continue to increase as greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise due to human activities. AbstractGlobal climate change, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is being particularly felt in Canada, with warming generally greater than in the rest of the world. Continued warming will be accompanied by changes in precipitation, which will vary across the country and seasons, and by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events.

Weather-based forecasting of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Canada

“…Furthermore, there will be an increased risk that exotic MBDs, such as dengue and chikungunyaand the mosquitoes that carry them-will become established in Canada. With climate change, these exotic mosquitoes, having been introduced from abroad via increased international passenger travel and increased international shipping, may now find the environmental conditions that they need to survive (9).…”

Mapping the Vector Abundance of Endemic Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Southern Quebec

“…This type of model can also help to study the impact of climate and environmental change on the distribution of these mosquito species in time and space from a public health perspective. Indeed, temperature, precipitation and the presence of urban areas are very important variables in our models and are undergoing profound changes: we note growing urban consumption of land, in tandem with an increase in mean temperatures and a change in precipitation patterns [75]. These three major effects can, therefore, be expected to signi cantly alter the landscape of mosquito abundances in the coming years and, consequently, the risk of exposure to mosquito-borne diseases.…”

Neue intensivmedizinische Herausforderungen durch Klimawandel und globale Erderwärmung

“…In Kanada, einem Land, in dem der Klimawandel besonders deutlich zu spüren ist, wird regelmäßig über das Auftreten von Lyme-Borreliose oder West-Nil-Virus-Erkrankungen berichtet [18]. In den Jahren 2012-2016 wurde ein massiver Anstieg von Borrelia-Erkrankungen, hervorgerufen durch die Spirochäte Borrelia burgdorferi beobachtet [19]…”