Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity

Abstract

Abstract. Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests.

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

“…These hardwood species are currently near the northern edge of their historic ranges in the assessment area, and the latecentury increase suggests enhanced migration and establishment of these species in the assessment area or a greater competitive advantage under the projected hotter and drier conditions. These trends are similar to those projected by other simulations in northern Wisconsin and the Great Lakes (e.g., Duveneck et al 2014;Scheller and Mladenoff 2005). …”

Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

“…Extensive work on the risk and vulnerability of forests to climate change has been done for the eastern United States [56,[71][72][73][74][75]. Two models, DISTRIB and SHIFT, were combined to estimate the potential migration of five tree species in the eastern U.S. from climate change in the next 100 years [56].…”

“…Subsequent research illustrated large potential changes in suitable habitat for northeastern species, mostly gaining potential suitable areas of habitat [71], and incorporated habitat, dispersal, and disturbance [72]. The vulnerability and risk for individual species under multiple climate change scenarios has also shown potential for substantial change [74,75]. An extensive study was performed on central hardwood ecosystems [76] using three different models: Climate Change Tree Atlas, LANDIS PRO, and LINKAGES.…”

Changes in Climate, Forest Phenology, and Forest Disturbances Around Western Lake Superior

“…Changes may promote altered trajectories of forest health (e.g. due to moisture stress and other disturbance factors) and species composition, favoring more drought-resistant species in some areas and more shade-tolerant species in others [Duveneck et al, 2014]. Trophic interactions between forest vegetation, insects, and wildlife become more uncertain with altered timing of phenological events [Foster et al, 2013;Roberts et al, 2015].…”