Climate Variability and Change in Central America: What Does It Mean for Water Managers?

León, Hidalgo; Hugo, Graeme

doi:10.3389/frwa.2020.632739

Cited by 19 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The more frequent occurrence of multi-year meteorological droughts in Central America shown in this study, along with increased aridity due to higher temperatures and the likelihood of increased water demand due to a growing population (Hidalgo 2021), suggests that managing water resources will likely be increasingly challenging in the decades to come. Advanced planning for drought years and measures to increase water efficiency for agricultural and urban use is therefore urgently needed at the national and regional level to better adapt to the new hydroclimatic conditions.…”

Section: The Role Of the Cllj And Tropical Atlantic-tropical Pacific Temperature Sst Differencesmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Indeed, recent studies highlight the projected precipitation reduction over Central America as the key factor in the increase of drought risk in the coming decades (Giorgi 2006;Rauscher et al 2008;Fuentes-Franco et al 2015;Almazroui et al 2021;Depsky and Pons 2020). However, it is also important to mention that regional ongoing warming trends (Aguilar et al 2005;Gourdji et al 2015) play an important role in driving enhanced evapotranspiration and thus further exacerbating future droughts (Hidalgo et al 2021(Hidalgo et al , 2019Alfaro-Cordoba et al 2020). An example of that is the 2013-2016 Pan-Caribbean drought, which was not driven by a precipitation deficit but it was a direct consequence of exceptionally high evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures (Herrera et al 2018).…”

Section: The Role Of the Cllj And Tropical Atlantic-tropical Pacific Temperature Sst Differencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recent multi-year 2015–2019 drought after a multi-decadal drying trend over Central America raises the question of whether anthropogenic climate change (ACC) played a role in exacerbating these events. While the occurrence of the 2015–2019 drought in Central America has been asserted to be associated with ACC, we lack an assessment of natural vs anthropogenic contributions. Here, we use five different large ensembles—including high-resolution ensembles (i.e., 0.5∘ horizontally)—to estimate the contribution of ACC to the probability of occurrence of the 2015–2019 event and the recent multi-decadal trend. The comparison of ensembles forced with natural and natural plus anthropogenic forcing suggests that the recent 40-year trend is likely associated with internal climate variability. However, the 2015–2019 rainfall deficit has been made more likely by ACC. The synthesis of the results from model ensembles supports the notion of a significant increase, by a factor of four, over the last century for the 2015–2019 meteorological drought to occur because of ACC. All the model results further suggest that, under intermediate and high emission scenarios, the likelihood of similar drought events will continue to increase substantially over the next decades.

show abstract

Section: The Role Of the Cllj And Tropical Atlantic-tropical Pacific Temperature Sst Differencesmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: The Role Of the Cllj And Tropical Atlantic-tropical Pacific Temperature Sst Differencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The SM-YP, CA and Caribbean regions are vulnerable to extreme hydroclimatological phenomena, such as floods and droughts [3,21,34]. According to [3] they warn that the adverse effects of floods could be exacerbated in the states of Tabasco, Chiapas, and Veracruz, while the states of Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Yucatan in southern Mexico will have the potential effects of climate change.…”

Section: Local Impacts On the Population Agriculture And Aquatic Ecosystemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Climate Change in Southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study analyzes the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and precipitation trends in southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean regions. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.01, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, was the database used in this research. The trends of the four selected climate variables cover the period from 1960 to 2016. The results obtained show a clear and consistent warming trend, at a rate of about 0.01 °C/year for the entire study region. These results are consistent with some previous studies and the IPCC reports. While the trends of precipitation anomalies are slightly positive (~0.1 mm/year) for southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula and almost the entire Caribbean, for Central America (CA) the trends are negative. The study also presents the correlation between temperatures and precipitation versus El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) drivers, indicating global warming and frequency signals from the climate drivers. In terms of the near future (2015–2039), three Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC) show the same trend of temperature increase as the historical record. The RCP 6.0 has trends similar to the historical records for CA and southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, while the Caribbean corresponds to RCP 4.5. In terms of the far-future (2075–2099), RCP 6.0 is more ad-hoc for southeastern Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, and RCP 8.5 corresponds to Central America. These results could help to focus actions and measures against the impacts of climate change in the entire study region.

show abstract

“…Por un lado, se cuenta progresivamente con más información sobre la influencia de aspectos biofísicos y climáticos en la variabilidad y cambio climático y los medios de vida locales; por otro, hay una necesidad constante de adaptar políticas y opciones de adaptación a los intereses de tomadores de decisiones y población, políticas internacionales, efectos de la globalización y el imaginario del territorio (Bautista-Solís et al, datos sin publicar). Obsérvese que en toda aplicación de los modelos climáticos, así como del escenario escogido para la adaptación a escala municipal, se deben considerar los aspectos descritos por Nissan, Goddard, de Perez y Furlow (2019), y por Hidalgo (2021), para orientar la adecuada participación de los actores en el proceso de retroalimentación. Declaración de ética: los autores declaran que todos están de acuerdo con esta publicación y que han hecho aportes que justifican su autoría; que no hay conflicto de interés de ningún tipo; y que han cumplido con todos los requisitos y procedimientos éticos y legales pertinentes.…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Cambios climáticos proyectados de modelos CMIP5 en La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica

Hidalgo¹,

Alfaro²,

Pérez-Briceño³

2021

RBT

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Introducción: La Cruz está localizada en el noroeste de Costa Rica, y está caracterizada por una estación seca bien definida y un clima tropical seco. Este cantón en los últimos 45 años ha reportado impactos de eventos hidrometeorológicos, en particular los húmedos como las inundaciones que han afectado viviendas, calles y cultivos, pero también algunas sequías han perjudicado a la población y sus actividades. Objetivo: El objetivo de este artículo es proveer información acerca de posibles cambios climáticos durante el siglo XXI asociados con un escenario pesimista de emisiones en el cantón de La Cruz en Guanacaste, Costa Rica. Métodos: Se utilizó la base de datos DesInventar para identificar los impactos y agruparlos según su mes de ocurrencia para relacionarlo con el régimen de precipitación. Simulaciones cambiadas de escala del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Climáticos 5 (CMIP5) fueron estados para simular cambios pasados y futuros (1979-2099) en temperatura y precipitación. Adicionalmente, un modelo hidrológico fue usado para calcular las proyecciones de escorrentía usando los datos meteorológicos. Resultados: Los resultados mostraron que un futuro más seco y caliente será característico del clima del siglo XXI, especialmente después del 2040. La escorrentía se espera que será reducida significativamente siguiendo las tendencias meteorológicas. Conclusiones: Algunos de los impactos más recurrentes históricamente son las inundaciones, daños a viviendas, calles y cultivos, sin embargo, también se han registrado algunas muertes en la zona. Se espera que una aridez mayor estará presente en el futuro, afectando sistemas humanos y ambientales.

show abstract

Climate Variability and Change in Central America: What Does It Mean for Water Managers?

Cited by 19 publications

References 10 publications

Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought

Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought

Regional Climate Change in Southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean

Cambios climáticos proyectados de modelos CMIP5 en La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About