Climate warming decreases the survival of the little auk (Alle alle), a highArctic avian predator

Abstract

Delayed maturity, low fecundity, and high adult survival are traits typical for species with a long-life expectancy. For such species, even a small change in adult survival can strongly affect the population dynamics and viability. We examined the effects of both regional and local climatic variability on adult survival of the little auk, a long-lived and numerous Arctic seabird species. We conducted a mark-resighting study for a period of 8 years (2006-2013) simultaneously at three little auk breeding sites that are influenced by the West Spitsbergen Current, which is the main carrier of warm, Atlantic water into the Arctic. We found that the survival of adult little auks was negatively correlated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and local summer sea surface temperature (SST), with a time lag of 2 and 1 year, respectively. The effects of NAO and SST were likely mediated through a change in food quality and/or availability: (1) reproduction, growth, and development of Arctic Calanus copepods, the main prey of little auks, are negatively influenced by a reduction in sea ice, reduced ice algal production, and an earlier but shorter lasting spring bloom, all of which result from an increased NAO; (2) a high sea surface temperature shortens the reproductive period of Arctic Calanus, decreasing the number of eggs produced. A synchronous variation in survival rates at the different colonies indicates that climatic forcing was similar throughout the study area. Our findings suggest that a predicted warmer climate in the Arctic will negatively affect the population dynamics of the little auk, a high Arctic avian predator.

Correlating tropical climate with survival of an Arctic-breeding, trans-equatorial migrant seabird

“…We also wanted to avoid finding spurious results by taking an "all possible models" approach (as described by Anderson et al 2001). Nevertheless, findings from this study add to growing evidence that variability in climate influences the survival of long-lived seabirds (e.g., Grosbois and Thompson 2005;Sandvik et al 2005;Lavers et al 2008;Dorresteijn et al 2012;Sydeman et al 2012;Genovart et al 2013;Hovinen et al 2014), and it highlights the role of global climate in affecting Arcticbreeding species, notably those that are long-distance migrants (Both et al 2010).…”

“…SE, standard error. population dynamics tend to manifest indirectly via changes in food availability (Durant et al 2004;Sandvik et al 2005;Gaston 2011;Hovinen et al 2014). A reliable food source leading up to the breeding season is important for maintaining body condition, and thus it influences adult survival and reproductive effort (Monaghan et al 1989;Oro et al 2004;Davis et al 2005;Harding et al 2011).…”

Weakening of the subpolar gyre as a key driver of North Atlantic seabird demography: a case study with Brünnich’s guillemots in Svalbard

“…Even if adult survival is expected to be canalised against environmental variability in such long-lived organisms (Wagner et al 1997, Gaillard & Yoccoz 2003, it may still be affected by environmental fluctuations (see Durant et al 2003, Lavers et al 2008, Oro et al 2010, Hovinen et al 2014, for a few examples on seabirds). To assess the effects of climate variation on adult survival in long-lived organisms, it is therefore important to understand their population dynamics.…”

Apparent survival of adult Leach’s Storm-petrels (Oceanodroma leucorhoa) breeding on Bon Portage Island, Nova Scotia

“…Therefore, variability in seabird population size is often associated with reproductive output, because breeding adults are able to reallocate investment from reproductive effort to self-maintenance when conditions, e.g., weather, food supply, are poor (Erikstad et al 1998, Cubaynes et al 2011, Hovinen et al 2014. Conversely, slow reproductive rates and high breeding site fidelity of seabirds mean that their populations are sensitive to even minor changes in adult survival; consistently low or highly variable survival probabilities are signs that a population is under stress and at a greater risk of rapid decline (Weimerskirch andJouventin 1987, Wooller et al 1992).…”