Climatological Analysis of the Synoptic Situations Causing Torrential Precipitation Events in Bulgaria over the Period 1961–2007

Bocheva, Lilia; Gospodinov, Ilian; Simeonov, Petio; Marinova, Tania

doi:10.1007/978-90-481-8695-2_9

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Along with air temperature, precipitation provides information about the state of the climate. On the background of the general trend towards a decrease in precipitation amounts in Southern Europe, including Bulgaria (EEA, 2012;IPCC, 2021), an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation has been observed in recent years (Bocheva et al, 2010;IPCC, 2021). This could lead to a risk to the population from soil erosion, debris flows and floods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of rainfall erosivity in Southwest Bulgaria using the Fournier index

Nikolova¹,

Matev²,

Alili³

2022

Rev. Bulg. Geol. Soc.

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Soil erosion is one of the most widespread environmental problems in Bulgaria, which often occurs together with other dangerous phenomena such as landslides, soil degradation, wind erosion, etc. The main factor for erosion is rainfall. Rainfall erosivity is an indicator of the potential of rainfall to generate erosion processes and is of fundamental importance in the analysis of the climate vulnerability of a given region. The purpose of the present study is to assess rainfall erosivity in one of the most populated regions of Bulgaria – the Southwest by comparing the results of two indices - the Fournier index (FI) and the modified Fournier index (MFI). The results show that, in general, the studied stations belong to a low class of erosivity. It is found that MFI has greater sensitivity and provides more detail, showing also years with high and even very high rainfall erosivity.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of rainfall erosivity in Southwest Bulgaria using the Fournier index

Nikolova¹,

Matev²,

Alili³

2022

Rev. Bulg. Geol. Soc.

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“…Observation data from the last two decades show an increase in the frequency of dry events in Bulgaria (Koleva & Alexandrov, 2008;Popova et al, 2015;Radeva et al, 2018). On the other hand, as a consequence of climate change, there has recently been an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Bulgaria (Bocheva et al, 2010;Spiridonov & Balabanova, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological drought in southwest Bulgaria during the period 1961-2020

Stoyanova

Nikolova

2022

J GEOGR INST CVIJIC

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Although drought is a common phenomenon in Southern Europe, including Bulgaria, it can have adverse effects on human life and economic activities (water scarcity, reduced agricultural production, and economic losses to agriculture). This event occurs regionally, but it can spread over large areas. Whether it will be perceived as a hazard depends on the affected areas and the degree of impact. The article aims to provide new insight into the meteorological drought in the most densely populated NUTS 2 region of Bulgaria-the Yugozapaden (Southwestern). Based on Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI-1 and SPI-3), its occurrence during the period 1961-2020 was analysed in terms of duration, intensity, and magnitude. The maximum drought

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“…The relationship between extreme precipitation and the corresponding temperature is of great importance for predicting precipitation extremes in the future, given the rapid increase of global warming (Yang et al, 2020). The most important conclusion of the studies conducted were the increases in magnitude, frequency, and probability of the occurrence of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation events (Alexander et al, 2006;Bocheva et al, 2010;Harpa et al, 2019;Huang, Wang et al, 2018;Janković et al, 2019;Jiang et al, 2012;Kjellström and Ruosteenoja, 2007;Li et al, 2019;Tramblay and Somot, 2018;Vuković et al, 2018). Kjellström and Ruosteenoja (2007) investigated simulated changes in the precipitation over the Baltic Sea at the end of the 21st century and the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic Sea area, especially during winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, there are different studies about climate changes and their environmental impact in Serbia and in the neighboring countries. They are related to extreme temperatures, precipitation, soil temperatures, soil moisture, droughts and wet periods (Bocheva et al, 2010;Trajković, 2013, 2014;Harpa et al, 2019;Janković et al, 2019;Kržič et al, 2011;Mihailović et al, 2016;Pongracz et al, 2011;Unkašević and Tošić, 2011;Vuković et al, 2018). Kržič et al (2011) have shown an overall increase in the surface air temperature of about 2 °C and a decrease in seasonal precipitation sums of about 13 mm in Serbia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia

Erić

Kadović

Djurdjević

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation during the 21st century in Central Serbia. The changes are investigated on the basis of historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. The historical observation data were recorded at 18 synoptic weather stations in Central Serbia and modelled data were extracted from the regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) under the A1B scenario. The average number of days in a year with precipition ≥ 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (R20, R30, R40 and R50), the share of daily precipitation above the 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (P20, P30, P40, P50) in the total annual precipitation and the monthly distribution of these heavy daily precipitation are used as indices of changes in extreme precipitation. These indices, for the three periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, are determined and compared with those obtained for the historical reference period 1961–1990. The results have shown that the main changes in extreme precipitation in Central Serbia will be in their spatial distribution, and the uncertainty of the occurrence of extreme events will decrease. In the future the increase will be more pronounced than the decrease of these indices. We strongly emphasize the benefit of this paper for both the prevention of natural disasters in the study area and for the improvement of the regional climate model.

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Climatological Analysis of the Synoptic Situations Causing Torrential Precipitation Events in Bulgaria over the Period 1961–2007

Cited by 3 publications

References 6 publications

Assessment of rainfall erosivity in Southwest Bulgaria using the Fournier index

Assessment of rainfall erosivity in Southwest Bulgaria using the Fournier index

Meteorological drought in southwest Bulgaria during the period 1961-2020

Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia

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