CMIP6 model projections leave no room for permafrost to persist in Western Siberia under the SSP5-8.5 scenario

Alexandrov, G. A.; Ginzburg, Veronika; Insarov, Gregory; Romanovskaya, A. A.

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03292-w

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Air-ground coupling [16,29,30] Frost number from ground surface temperature FNG Frost number is defined as for FNA5/FNA6 above but using monthly soil temperatures at 20 cm depth.…”

Section: Tasmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models

Steinert,

Debolskiy,

Burke

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Global permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the calculation of permafrost area. Here, we present permafrost area calculations using 10 different definitions for detecting permafrost presence based on either ground thermodynamics, soil hydrology, or air–ground coupling from an ensemble of 32 Earth system models. We find that variations between permafrost-presence definitions result in substantial differences of up to 18 million km2, where any given model could both over- or underestimate the present-day permafrost area. Ground-thermodynamic-based definitions are, on average, comparable with observations but are subject to a large inter-model spread. The associated uncertainty of permafrost area estimates is reduced in definitions based on ground–air coupling. However, their representation of permafrost area strongly depends on how each model represents the ground–air coupling processes. The definition-based spread in permafrost area can affect estimates of permafrost-related impacts and feedbacks, such as quantifying permafrost carbon changes. For instance, the definition spread in permafrost area estimates can lead to differences in simulated permafrost-area soil carbon changes of up to 28%. We therefore emphasize the importance of consistent and well-justified permafrost-presence definitions for robust projections and accurate assessments of permafrost from climate model outputs.

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“…Air-ground coupling [16,29,30] Frost number from ground surface temperature FNG Frost number is defined as for FNA5/FNA6 above but using monthly soil temperatures at 20 cm depth.…”

Section: Tasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…tsl Air-ground coupling [16,30,31] Soil ice amount SIC There is more than 0.5 kg m −2 of frozen soil water in the soil column summed over all soil layers, averaged over the grid cell area fraction (i.e. the total mass of frozen water contained in the soil column divided by the grid cell land area).…”

Section: Tasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models

Steinert,

Debolskiy,

Burke

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Many broad-scale modeling studies have focused on potential permafrost responses to projected climate changes using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario approach. Such studies suggest an anticipated progressive increase in active layer thickness across the rapidly warming Arctic [6][7][8]. These regional to circumarctic projections have important implications for biological and hydrological processes [9][10][11], which can significantly impact the function of terrestrial ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Localized Vegetation, Soil Moisture, and Ice Content Offset Permafrost Degradation under Climate Warming

et al. 2023

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Rapid Arctic warming is expected to result in widespread permafrost degradation. However, observations show that site-specific conditions (vegetation and soils) may offset the reaction of permafrost to climate change. This paper summarizes 43 years of interannual seasonal thaw observations from tundra landscapes surrounding the Marre-Sale on the west coast of the Yamal Peninsula, northwest Siberia. This robust dataset includes landscape-specific climate, active layer thickness, soil moisture, and vegetation observations at multiple scales. Long-term trends from these hierarchically scaled observations indicate that drained landscapes exhibit the most pronounced responses to changing climatic conditions, while moist and wet tundra landscapes exhibit decreasing active layer thickness, and river floodplain landscapes do not show changes in the active layer. The slow increase in seasonal thaw depth despite significant warming observed over the last four decades on the Yamal Peninsula can be explained by thickening moss covers and ground surface subsidence as the transient layer (ice-rich upper permafrost soil horizon) thaws and compacts. The uneven proliferation of specific vegetation communities, primarily mosses, is significantly contributing to spatial variability observed in active layer dynamics. Based on these findings, we recommend that regional permafrost assessments employ a mean landscape-scale active layer thickness that weights the proportions of different landscape types.

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“…Для моделирования тепловых полей при проведении строительства различных инженерных объектов в зоне ММП следует учитывать вместе с климатическими данными и возможные источники тепла от скважин, трубопроводов, фундаментов сооружений и т. п. Для верификации численных методик используются термометрические скважины, которые позволяют проверить и повысить точность получаемого решения за счет имеющихся параметров [27,28]. В работе основное внимание уделено описанию моделей распространения нестационарных тепловых полей от эксплуатируемых северных нефтегазовых месторождений.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Some problems of heat and mass transfer during the operation of engineering systems in multiphase environments

Filimonov,

Vaganova

2023

DREAM

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Three types of problems related to problems of heat and mass transfer in the soil are considered. The first class of problems deals with the diagnostics of damage of underground pipelines by thermal fields on the soil surface. The second type studies the dynamics of changes in the temperature of a geothermal reservoir depending on the temperature of the water entering this reservoir and the pressure gap between injection and production wells. The third-type problems consider the propagation of non-stationary thermal fields in the soil from operated engineering systems in the permafrost. The main attention is paid to long-term forecasting of the propagation of non-stationary thermal fields in the frozen soil between operating production wells of northern oil and gas fields. In problems of the first two classes, which served as a basis for the development of problems of the third type, water filtration in the soil is considered, and thermal fields propagate in single-phase media. The third-class problems take into account possible phase transitions in the soil when describing non-stationary thermal fields in permafrost soils, leading to Stefan-type problems. Accounting for water migration for the specific third-type problems on the determination of the radius of frozen soil thawing from production wells in northern oil and gas fields does not significantly affect this process since lateral water migration above the groundwater level is minimal. Therefore, only the latent heat of the initial water content is taken into consideration. This paper discusses a mathematical model containing the most significant physical and climatic data affecting the distribution of thermal fields in permafrost rocks and presents the results of numerical calculations.

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CMIP6 model projections leave no room for permafrost to persist in Western Siberia under the SSP5-8.5 scenario

Cited by 15 publications

References 44 publications

Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models

Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models

Localized Vegetation, Soil Moisture, and Ice Content Offset Permafrost Degradation under Climate Warming

Some problems of heat and mass transfer during the operation of engineering systems in multiphase environments

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