Coherence of Warm-Season Continental Rainfall in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Davis, Christopher A.; Manning, Kevin W.; Carbone, Richard E.; Trier, Stanley B.; Tuttle, John D.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2667:cowcri>2.0.co;2

Cited by 129 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

133

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In ensemble systems, using different CPs is an effective way to generate spread in rainfall forecasts (e.g., Jankov et al 2005), but using CPs introduces systematic errors in rainfall forecasts (e.g., Davis et al 2003;Liu et al 2006;Clark et al 2007), and models using CPs cannot resolve fine scale features in rainfall systems. Because of these limitations, significant improvements in rainfall forecasts may be realized by running an ensemble using explicit representation of convection (i.e., no CP).…”

Section: Prediction (Ncep) Global Forecast System (Gfs; Toth and Kalnmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, partly because of shortcomings associated with CPs (e.g., Molinari and Dudek 1992;Kain and Fritsch 1998;Davis et al 2003;Bukovsky et al 2006), it is believed that numerical models will not be able to take advantage of this inherent predictability until CAR is utilized. Evidence from some preliminary studies comparing data from CAR and PCR simulations (e.g., Liu et al 2006;Clark et al 2007;Weisman et al 2008) supports this idea.…”

Section: A Analysis Of Diurnally-averaged Hovmöller Diagramsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles

Clark

Gallus

Xue

et al. 2009

Weather and Forecasting

215

144

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

2An experiment is designed to evaluate and compare precipitation forecasts from a 5-member, 4-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model ensemble, which cover a similar domain over the central United States.The ensemble forecasts are initialized at 2100 UTC on 23 different dates and cover forecast lead times up to 33 hours. Previous work has demonstrated that simulations using convection-allowing resolution (CAR; dx ~ 4-km) have a better representation of the spatial and temporal statistical properties of convective precipitation than coarser models using convective parameterizations. In addition, higher resolution should lead to greater ensemble spread as smaller scales of motion are resolved. Thus, CAR ensembles should provide more accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts than parameterized-convection resolution (PCR) ensembles.Computation of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 generally provides more accurate precipitation forecasts than ENS20, with the differences tending to be statistically significant for precipitation thresholds above 0.25 inches at forecast lead times of 9 to 21 hours (0600 -1800 UTC) for all accumulation intervals analyzed (1-, 3-, and 6-hr). In addition, an analysis of rank histograms and statistical consistency reveals that faster error growth in ENS4 eventually leads to more reliable precipitation forecasts in ENS4 than in ENS20. For the cases examined, these results imply that the skill gained by increasing to CAR outweighs the skill lost by decreasing the ensemble size. Thus, when computational capabilities become available, it will be highly desirable to increase the ensemble resolution from PCR to CAR, even if the size of the ensemble has to be reduced.

show abstract

Section: Prediction (Ncep) Global Forecast System (Gfs; Toth and Kalnmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Analysis Of Diurnally-averaged Hovmöller Diagramsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles

Clark

Gallus

Xue

et al. 2009

Weather and Forecasting

215

144

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This premature initiation of convection often results in timing and location errors as well as difficulty to simulate the diurnal cycle of rainfall (Clark et al, 2007). Detailed discussion on the convection initiation in a convection-parameterizing model can be found in Davis et al (2003) and Bukovsky et al (2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Schellander-Gorgas¹,

Wang²,

Meier³

et al. 2017

Geosci. Model Dev.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The 2.5 km convection-permitting (CP) ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale -Ensemble Prediction System) is evaluated by comparison with the regional 11 km ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement InterNational -Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) to show whether a benefit is provided by a CP EPS. The evaluation focuses on the abilities of the ensembles to quantitatively predict precipitation during a 3-month convective summer period over areas consisting of mountains and lowlands. The statistical verification uses surface observations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analyses, and the verification scores involve state-of-the-art statistical measures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts as well as novel spatial verification methods. The results show that the convectionpermitting ensemble with higher-resolution AROME-EPS outperforms its mesoscale counterpart ALADIN-LAEF for precipitation forecasts. The positive impact is larger for the mountainous areas than for the lowlands. In particular, the diurnal precipitation cycle is improved in AROME-EPS, which leads to a significant improvement of scores at the concerned times of day (up to approximately one-third of the scored verification measure). Moreover, there are advantages for higher precipitation thresholds at small spatial scales, which are due to the improved simulation of the spatial structure of precipitation.

show abstract

“…Weather satellites made more studies over larger area, even in ocean area, with a coarse spatial resolution (Sorooshian et al, 2002;Yang and Smith, 2006;Liu and Zipser, 2008;Zhou et al, 2008). These data were also used to validate the diurnal variation of the model forecasts (Davis et al, 2003;Bechtold et al, 2004;Janowiak et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diurnal variation of simulated 2007 summertime precipitation over South Korea in a real-time forecast model system

Kim

Eom

Lee

et al. 2010

Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A real-time forecast (RTF) system using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model version 2.2 is used to evaluate the diurnal variation of precipitation over South Korea in the summer (June to August) of 2007. The characteristics of the observed precipitation are also analyzed. The analysis and simulation period is divided into two sub-periods following the end of the changma, or East Asian monsoon, in 2007: Period_1 is from 1 June to 21 July, and Period_2 is from 22 July to 31 August. A 24-h precipitation cycle is observed over the entire period. The diurnal variation of precipitation over the South Korea shows that the nighttime maximum precipitation in Period_1 is affected by a largescale system; in contrast, the daytime maximum precipitation in Period_2 resulted from mesoscale convections is induced by thermal instability and moisture advection. The phases of the diurnal variation of simulated precipitation are consistent with those of the observed precipitation. The daytime rainfall amount of simulated precipitation in Period_2 is overestimated, and the convective rain process significantly affects the simulated total precipitation. The daytime overestimated precipitation is associated with overestimations of low-level temperature and moisture during the daytime in the model simulations as compared with the observations.

show abstract

Coherence of Warm-Season Continental Rainfall in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Cited by 129 publications

References 12 publications

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Diurnal variation of simulated 2007 summertime precipitation over South Korea in a real-time forecast model system

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About