Collaborative scenario modeling reveals potential advantages of blending strategies to achieve conservation goals in a working forest landscape

Price, Jessica; Silbernagel, Janet; Nixon, Kristina; Swearingen, Amanda; Swaty, Randy; Miller, Nicholas

doi:10.1007/s10980-015-0321-2

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…This study defined future management intensity of forestry and pasture considering assumptions of population distribution and capital preference provided by the PANCES scenarios, while previous studies visualized the consequences of each scenario by setting plausible management case by expert judge (Swearingen et al 2015;Price et al 2016;Thompson et al 2016a;Lucash et al 2017). This approach successfully demonstrated the effect of those assumptions on future state of natural capital and ESs and will make an important contribution to the development of an integrated model of socio-ecological systems.…”

Section: Limitation and Challengementioning

confidence: 98%

“…FLMs are widely used for scenario analysis of forest management at a local scale, while the tighter coupling of socioeconomic drivers is still challenging (Shifley et al 2017). Forest succession under each narrative scenario simulated using the FLMs, and outputs were evaluated in terms of biodiversity and ecosystem services, such as the resilience of biomass and species composition and multiple ESs (Swearingen et al 2015;Price et al 2016; Thompson et al 2016a;Lucash et al 2017), whereas management rules under scenarios was determined by expert judgment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

et al. 2018

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A quantitative scenario approach to compare the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services (ESs) plays a key role in facilitating decision making for the sustainable management of landscapes. In Japan, the shrinking and aging population will likely lead to a situation of underuse of natural resources, resulting in rewilding of terrestrial ecosystems. This study conducted a quantitative scenario analysis of natural capital and ESs by linking model and social scenarios on a local scale. The case study area was the Bekanbeushi River Watershed in northern Japan. LANDIS-II model (a forest landscape model) was used to simulate the vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass considering impacts of forest and pasture land management. Four "population distribution" and "capital preference" scenarios were translated into forest and pasture land management. The population distribution and capital preference assumptions resulted in different consequences for natural capital and ESs. The population distribution affected the spatial allocation of abandoned pasture land and level of isolation of managed pasture land. The capital preference assumptions largely affected the consequences for ESs. Finally, these simulation results demonstrated the capacity to feed quantitative information to the narrative scenarios. Our process-based approach provides insight into the relationships among social drivers, ecological processes and the consequences that will affect natural capital and ESs, which can contribute to decision making and sustainability design of regions, which may face issues associated with underuse in the future.

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Section: Limitation and Challengementioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

et al. 2018

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“…Our mapping and spatial analysis results and census statistics unequivocally revealed spatially close relationships in terms of landholdings and management between Ume, coppice forest, and other land uses in parcel groups within watersheds. This has led to the creation of a parcel-based landscape with different forest growing stages and dynamic agricultural fields of Ume and other plant products ( Figure 5), displaying parcel dynamics entirely distinct from the large-scale patch dynamics utilized for natural forest resource management in the United States and other countries [27,28]. This parcel dynamics shows that the typical phase of a man-made GIAHS landscape requires parcel-based dynamic conservation measures.…”

Section: Landscape Patterns Landforms and Watershedsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Minabe-Tanabe Ume System: Linkage of Landscape Units by Locals

Hara

Sampei

2018

Sustainability

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This paper focuses on the Minabe-Tanabe Ume system, which was designated as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) in December of 2015. Because landholdings reflect historical social connections among various landscape units, we quantitatively examined the landscape characteristics of the system by preparing digitized spatial data and performing geographic information system analysis. We also examined the consensus building process among different stakeholders toward GIAHS recognition, as well as the emergent local spatial structure of the stakeholder network through interviews with key stakeholders and participatory monitoring. Our spatial analysis of the landscape generally supported the traditional knowledge of the area as a watershed-based mosaic of coppice forests on ridges, Ume orchards on sloped areas, and villages with rice paddies and dry fields in the plains. Our stakeholder network visualization identified several key persons as important nodes that could connect different types of land use now and may have done so in the past. Moreover, because our GIAHS site has compact agglomerations of watersheds with ranges within a~30-min drive, most stakeholders, who turned out to have graduated from the same local school, are able to maximize their social capital to reorganize the remaining nodes among different land uses, thereby contributing to the formation of the land-use system and its further promotion through dynamic conservation measures.

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“…Schröter and Remme (2016) found that hotspot methods used for identifying ES priority sites can lead to spatial scattering, implying that some hotspot methods may not be suitable for identifying priority sites for ES conservation. Furthermore, there is the consideration that not all ES may be able to coexist: in particular provisioning services (such as timber harvesting or hunting) may be at odds with services such as recreation or biodiversity conservation as a cultural service (Price et al 2016). Overall, it seems that treatment of ES in SCP could be more even complicated than treatment of multiple species distributions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem services and connectivity in spatial conservation prioritization

Kukkala

Moilanen

2016

Landscape Ecol

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Context Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) concerns, for example, identification of spatial priorities for biodiversity conservation or for impact avoidance in economic development. Software useable for SCP include Marxan, C-Plan and Zonation. SCP is often based on data about the distributions of biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitats), costs, threats, and/or ecosystem services (ES). Objectives and methods At simplest ES can be entered into a SCP analysis as independent supply maps, but this is not very satisfactory because connectivity requirements and consequent ideal spatial priority patterns may vary between ES. Therefore, we examine different ES and their connectivity requirements at the conceptual level. Results We find that the ideal spatial priority pattern for ES may differ in terms of: local supply area size and regional network requirements for the maintenance of ES provision, for flow between provision and demand, and with respect to the degree of dispersion that is needed for ES provision and access across different administrative regions. We then identify existing technical options in the Zonation software for dealing with such connectivity requirements of ES in SCP. Conclusions This work helps users of SCP to improve how ES are accounted for in analysis together with biodiversity and other considerations.

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Collaborative scenario modeling reveals potential advantages of blending strategies to achieve conservation goals in a working forest landscape

Cited by 11 publications

References 65 publications

Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

The Minabe-Tanabe Ume System: Linkage of Landscape Units by Locals

Ecosystem services and connectivity in spatial conservation prioritization

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