Comparing peasants' perceptions of precipitation change with precipitation records in the tropical Callejón de Huaylas, Peru

Abstract

Abstract. Pronounced hygric seasonality determines the regional climate and, thus, the characteristics of rainfed agriculture in the Peruvian Callejón de Huaylas (Cordillera Blanca). Peasants in the Cuenca Auqui on the eastern slopes above the city of Huaraz attribute recently experienced challenges in agricultural production mainly to perceived changes in precipitation patterns. Statistical analyses of daily precipitation records at nearby Recuay (1964Recuay ( to 2013 and Huaraz (1996 to 2013) stations do not corroborate the perceived changes. Either insufficient temporal resolution of available precipitation records or other environmental and sociopolitical factors impacting traditional farming methods may be the reason for the lack of concordance between the two information sources investigated in this study.

The freezing level in the tropical Andes, Peru: An indicator for present and future glacier extents

“…Observations show that the retreat of glaciers in the 21st century is unprecedented on a global scale for the time period observed and probably also for the recorded history [ Zemp et al , ]. Glaciers play an important role in many regions in Peru, particularly because (1) there is a strong seasonality in precipitation with a considerable contribution of glacier melt to total river discharge during the dry season [e.g., Kaser et al , ; Mark et al , ; Kaser et al , ]; (2) people use river water for irrigation, hydropower, tourism, or domestic consumption [e.g., Drenkhan et al , ; Gurgiser et al , ]; and (3) discharge from glaciers is expected to change in the future due to glacier shrinkage [ Ames and Hastenrath , ; Kaser and Georges , ; Mark and Seltzer , ; Juen et al , ; Vuille et al , ; Baraer et al , ; Rabatel et al , ]. The consequences of vanishing glaciers are especially severe where people have only limited capacity to adapt to changes in the water availability due to, for instance, lack of financial resources and knowledge or/and where competition for water is intensifying [ Lynch , ].…”

Towards integrated assessments of water risks in deglaciating mountain areas: water scarcity and GLOF risk in the Peruvian Andes

“…drying of springs). Gurgiser et al (2016) noticed in their study that locals perceive shifts in precipitation patterns that are not obvious in their precipitation analysis but shows for example a shift in onset dates of the wet season. Interviewees often referred to a "water problem" in disasters (Flores Moreno 2016).…”

“…Vanishing glaciers, natural hazards (like inundations, mudflows, and landslides), decreasing river discharge, drying springs, next to shifts in precipitation patterns are apparent climate change impacts noticed by the local population in one way or another (Jurt 2009 ; Gurgiser et al 2016 ; Carey et al 2017 ; Heikkinen 2017 ; Mark et al 2017 ). Nevertheless, the perceptions of people living in endangered areas differ where the risk of sudden-onset events such as GLOFs is often being underestimated due to inaccurate predictions, mitigation projects, little interaction with the hazard or believe in higher power (Dahal and Hagelman 2011 ; Sherry et al 2018 ; Walker-Crawford et al 2018 ).…”

“…In Quillcay traditional small-scale agriculture, spread over elevations between 3000 and 4000 m asl. dominates, and traditional crops like potatoes, corn and grains are produced for self-subsistence and the local markets (Gurgiser et al 2016 ). The money earned is used to buy food products that cannot be cultivated in this environment such as rice, sugar and different types of vegetables and other consumer items.…”

Bridging the divide between human and physical geography: Potential avenues for collaborative research on climate modeling

“…They argue that “modelling the societal implications of climate change requires new integrative approaches that bridge highly different methodologies between disciplines” (p. 4). Several interdisciplinary research teams have also contributed studies of climate change impacts and adaptation in mountainous regions, integrating biophysical and social factors in their analyses of hydrological changes (Carey et al, ; Mark et al, ) and incorporating western scientific and experiential or local ecological knowledge (Gurgiser et al, ).…”