Comparing probabilistic predictive models applied to football

Diniz, Márcio Alves; Izbicki, Rafael; Lopes, Danilo Lourenço; Salasar, Luis Ernesto Bueno

doi:10.1080/01605682.2018.1457485

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The statistical model adopted by http://www.chancedegol. com.br/ assumes a bivariate Poisson regression model for the final score of matches considering offensive and defensive factors of each team; see [Diniz et al, 2019] for details; and…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup

Inácio¹,

Izbicki²,

Lopes³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The FIFA Men's World Cup Tournament (WCT) is the most important football (soccer) competition, attracting worldwide attention. A popular practice among football fans in Brazil is to organize contests in which each participant informs guesses on the final score of each match. The participants are then ranked according to some scoring rule. Inspired by these contests, we created a website to hold an online contest, in which participants were asked for their probabilities on the outcomes of upcoming matches of the WCT. After each round of the tournament, the ranking of all users based on a proper scoring rule were published. This paper studies the performance of some methods intended to extract the wisdom of the crowds, which are aggregated forecasts that uses some or all of the forecasts available. The later methods are compared to simpler forecasting strategies as well as to statistical prediction models. Our findings corroborate the hypothesis that, at least for sporting events, the wisdom of the crowds offers a competitive forecasting strategy. Specifically, some of these strategies were able to achieve high scores in our contest. 1 [Rhode and Strumpf, 2013] describes the history of political betting markets.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The statistical model adopted by www.previsaoesportiva. com.br is similar to that of "Chance de Gol", but includes expert information in the analysis; see [Lee, 1997, Diniz et al, 2019 for details.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup

Inácio¹,

Izbicki²,

Lopes³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Adhikari et al 2020;Galariotis et al 2018;Yang et al 2014) or match results (e.g. Diniz et al 2019;Friesl et al 2020;Koopman and Lit 2015;Nikolaidis 2015) has recently attracted the interest of many researchers in the field of statistics and econometrics. Since betting on sport events is based on a guess about the future match outcome, the development of statistical models able to improve decision making is of interest to both bettors and odd setters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer

Mattera

2021

Ann Oper Res

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Several studies deal with the development of advanced statistical methods for predicting football match results. These predictions are then used to construct profitable betting strategies. Even if the most popular bets are based on whether one expects that a team will win, lose, or draw in the next game, nowadays a variety of other outcomes are available for betting purposes. While some of these events are binary in nature (e.g. the red cards occurrence), others can be seen as binary outcomes. In this paper we propose a simple framework, based on score-driven models, able to obtain accurate forecasts for binary outcomes in soccer matches. To show the usefulness of the proposed statistical approach, two experiments to the English Premier League and to the Italian Serie A are provided for predicting red cards occurrence, Under/Over and Goal/No Goal events.

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“…We draw on previous analyses of rugby (Scarf et al, 2019) and netball , and of course soccer, for which there are many contributions (e.g. Karlis and Ntzoufras, 2009;Stefani, 2009;Baker and McHale, 2018;Diniz et al, 2019). We also develop a new model for footy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On skill and chance in sport

Scarf

Khare

Alotaibi

2021

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics

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This work studies outcome uncertainty and competitive balance from a broad perspective. It considers four sports with varying scoring rates, from soccer with typically three goals per match to netball with one hundred goals per match. Within a general modelling framework for a two-competitor contest, we argue that outcome uncertainty, the extent to which the outcome of a contest is unpredictable, depends on scoring rate, on strength variation and on score dependence. Score dependence is essentially the tendency for scores to alternate because possession alternates and possession is advantageous. We regard competitive balance as lack of variation in strength or skill, so that when strength variation is large competitive balance is low and vice versa. Thus, we argue that the outcome of a contest depends on skill, scoring rate, score dependence and chance. This description of outcome is useful because it informs policy-making in sport about the design of scoring systems and the control of competitive imbalance. Broadly, we find that: soccer is relatively competitively unbalanced but outcomes are uncertain because the scoring rate is low; the Australian football league is competitively balanced and so outcomes are uncertain in spite of the high scoring rate in this sport; international rugby matches are relatively neither competitive nor uncertain so that little is left to chance; and netball matches have uncertain outcomes because scores are positively dependent.

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Comparing probabilistic predictive models applied to football

Cited by 9 publications

References 35 publications

Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup

Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup

Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer

On skill and chance in sport

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