Comparing the day temperature and holiday effects on retail sales of alcoholic beverages – a time-series analysis

Hirche, Martin; Haensch, Juliane; Lockshin, Larry

doi:10.1108/ijwbr-07-2020-0035

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Covariates. Given that daily temperature, day of the week, season, and holidays can influence alcohol sales [33,34], the following covariates were considered: i. Maximum daily local temperature ii.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact on wine sales of removing the largest serving size by the glass: An A-B-A reversal trial in 21 pubs, bars, and restaurants in England

Mantzari,

Ventsel,

Pechey

et al. 2024

PLoS Med

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Background Interventions that alter aspects of the physical environments in which unhealthy behaviours occur have the potential to change behaviour at scale, i.e., across populations, and thereby decrease the risk of several diseases. One set of such interventions involves reducing serving sizes, which could reduce alcohol consumption. The effect of modifying the available range of serving sizes of wine in a real-world setting is unknown. We aimed to assess the impact on the volume of wine sold of removing the largest serving size by the glass from the options available in licensed premises. Methods and findings The study was conducted between September 2021 and May 2022 in 21 licensed premises in England that sold wine by the glass in serving sizes greater than 125 ml (i.e., 175 ml or 250 ml) and used an electronic point of sale till system. It used an A-B-A reversal design, set over 3 four-weekly periods. “A” represented the nonintervention periods during which standard serving sizes were served and “B” the intervention period when the largest serving size for a glass of wine was removed from the existing range in each establishment: 250 ml (18 premises) or 175 ml (3 premises). The primary outcome was the daily volume of wine sold, extracted from sales data. Twenty-one premises completed the study, 20 of which did so per protocol and were included in the primary analysis. After adjusting for prespecified covariates, the intervention resulted in −420·8 millilitres (ml) (95% confidence intervals (CIs) −681·4 to −160·2 p = 0·002) or −7·6% (95% CI −12·3%, −2·9%) less wine being sold per day. There was no evidence that sales of beer and cider or total daily revenues changed but the study was not powered to detect differences in these outcomes. The main study limitation is that we were unable to assess the sales of other alcoholic drinks apart from wine, beer, and cider, estimated to comprise approximately 30% of alcoholic drinks sold in participating premises. Conclusions Removing the largest serving size of wine by the glass from those available reduced the volume of wine sold. This promising intervention for decreasing alcohol consumption across populations merits consideration as part of alcohol licensing regulations. Trial registration ISRCTN https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN33169631; OSF https://osf.io/xkgdb.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact on wine sales of removing the largest serving size by the glass: An A-B-A reversal trial in 21 pubs, bars, and restaurants in England

Mantzari,

Ventsel,

Pechey

et al. 2024

PLoS Med

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“…In the first place it is possible to recognize the seasonal dependence of selected types of beverages, especially beer and other carbonated beverages. This is claimed by the authors Hirche et al [14]. Furthermore, there are various types of legislative restrictions on sales for consumption, but as Lichtman-Sadot points out, restriction on one hand triggers dominance on the other [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Creation of Annual Order Forecast for the Production of Beverage Cans—The Case Study

et al. 2021

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This article is focused on the creation of a system for forecasting of future orders for a specific beverage cans manufacturer. The problem comes from the irregular ordering of cans from different customers; not only national companies, but also from companies abroad. This causes fluctuations in production and consequently an irregular transport regime. That is why the beverage can producer demanded a forecasting system that would help to create an annual production plan. The aim is to analyze the ordering process for the last two years and on that basis to create a forecast system of the possible ordering process for the following year. This is necessary for the introduction of regularity of production, because the frequent transitions of the line to another assortment range or other surface printing requires long downtimes due to the technological setting, thus creating large losses due to inactivity of the production line. As drinking habits of final customers reflect the sale of cans, it was expected that sale data would have a seasonable character; this was proved after a brief analysis of the former data. After that, the appropriate forecasting methods were chosen. The methodology was created to combine multiple forecast results into one to increase the forecast objectivity. Forecasting is performed at three different levels: forecasting of assortment, forecasting of region sale and total forecasting of all orders. In spite of the change in market behavior in 2020, due to the pandemic situation in the first wave of the COVID-19 crisis, the sale of beverage cans is expected to stabilize and return to pre-crisis level as early as 2021. Then the forecasting system will fully meet the company’s requirements.

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“…It should be assessed whether such positive (negative) deviations in market share might be predictive for future growth (decline). In addition, seasonality effects may be tested in the context of distribution velocity of wine [32].…”

Section: Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution velocity in wine retailing

Hirche,

Loose,

Lockshin

et al. 2023

WEP

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Little is known about the relationship between distribution and market share in the wine category. Understanding the influences of product and distribution characteristics at the SKU-level and incorporating them into marketing strategy and planning has important managerial and academic implications. Sales of 3,524 wine SKUs across 4,218 stores in 4 states in the US over one year of observation are analyzed. We use an established distribution velocity model (Reibstein & Farris 1995) to estimate the relationship between distribution and market share. We then use the market share deviations from the expected values and apply a secondary robust regression to investigate possible relationships between various product- and distribution characteristics and those market share deviations. The results show that the distribution velocity in wine retailing is convex and increasing, in line with previous findings for other consumer-packaged goods in the marketing literature. Beyond distribution breadth, we find that overall parent brand performance (above), unit price (above), packaging type (above), country-of-origin, grape variety, sales consistency (above) and store specialization (below) are associated with above or below expected market share of wine SKUs.

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Comparing the day temperature and holiday effects on retail sales of alcoholic beverages – a time-series analysis

Cited by 14 publications

References 46 publications

Impact on wine sales of removing the largest serving size by the glass: An A-B-A reversal trial in 21 pubs, bars, and restaurants in England

Impact on wine sales of removing the largest serving size by the glass: An A-B-A reversal trial in 21 pubs, bars, and restaurants in England

Creation of Annual Order Forecast for the Production of Beverage Cans—The Case Study

Distribution velocity in wine retailing

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