Creation of Annual Order Forecast for the Production of Beverage Cans—The Case Study

Abstract

This article is focused on the creation of a system for forecasting of future orders for a specific beverage cans manufacturer. The problem comes from the irregular ordering of cans from different customers; not only national companies, but also from companies abroad. This causes fluctuations in production and consequently an irregular transport regime. That is why the beverage can producer demanded a forecasting system that would help to create an annual production plan. The aim is to analyze the ordering process for the last two years and on that basis to create a forecast system of the possible ordering process for the following year. This is necessary for the introduction of regularity of production, because the frequent transitions of the line to another assortment range or other surface printing requires long downtimes due to the technological setting, thus creating large losses due to inactivity of the production line. As drinking habits of final customers reflect the sale of cans, it was expected that sale data would have a seasonable character; this was proved after a brief analysis of the former data. After that, the appropriate forecasting methods were chosen. The methodology was created to combine multiple forecast results into one to increase the forecast objectivity. Forecasting is performed at three different levels: forecasting of assortment, forecasting of region sale and total forecasting of all orders. In spite of the change in market behavior in 2020, due to the pandemic situation in the first wave of the COVID-19 crisis, the sale of beverage cans is expected to stabilize and return to pre-crisis level as early as 2021. Then the forecasting system will fully meet the company’s requirements.

Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on Disrupted Supply Chain:

“…Research Purchasing sustainable supplier selection [86], order forecast for production [89] Production energy consumption-based maintenance in production [8], manufacturing resilience in automotive and airline industry [10], 3D printing [17-21, 26, 32, 37, 47, 49, 104, 113, 119], collaborative intelligent manufacturing [24], intelligent manufacturing systems [38], local industrial strategies in manufacturing [41], barriers and enablers in manufacturing [43], early implications in manufacturing [51], rapid retooling in hybrid manufacturing [68], MPPE manufacturing [76], annual order forecast for production [89], peer-to-peer production [91], manufacturing of reusable half-face respirator [100], lean production [101], green manufacturing [108], sustainability in manufacturing [112], leveraging flexible manufacturing [117], resilient manufacturing [118] Distribution food supply chain disruptions [4], impact of additive manufacturing on distribution and global supply chain [17], alternative supply chains [22], shortcomings of current supply chain operations [23], countermeasures [29], early implications [51], fragility of a multilayer network [55], ultra-cold supply chain [63], performance apparel [79], last-mile services [83], supply chain disruption [99] Recovery circular economy strategies [5], recovery plan [7], supply chain recovery [52] Global aspects critical shortage in supply chains [3], delivery strategies [6], supply chain decisions…”

Corrosion Behavior of Aluminium-Coated Cans

“…Although aluminium is a relatively corrosion-impervious metal, drinks with a low pH can dissolve the aluminium oxide layer, which serves as a natural passivation layer. Since the invention of the metal can more than two centuries ago, the globe produces more than 250 billion of them annually [ 2 ]. Leaking metal from cans into drinks can cause Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and multiple sclerosis.…”

A New Feature Based Deep Attention Sales Forecasting Model for Enterprise Sustainable Development

“…In the process of economic construction and informatization, the retail market has entered a period of high innovation and technical application [7]. The purpose of sales prediction is to survive in the market competition by the improvement of productivity, quantity, and service capacity [8,9]. Due to the complex and changeable sales situation of e-commerce platforms, which are restricted by many factors, e-commerce products must provide timely feedback and constantly adapt to changing market demands, and gain a leading competitive advantage for more market share [10].…”