Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds

Oppel, Steffen; Meirinho, Ana; Ramírez, Iván; Gardner, Beth; O’Connell, Allan F.; Miller, Peter I.; Louzao, Maité

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.11.013

Cited by 254 publications

(210 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Hence, for incorporation into decision-making tools for spatial management planning (e.g., Zonation, Moilanen, 2007) an ensemble model is a practical way to avoid dependence on a single model type and better describe in general the predicted spatial variation and uncertainties (Robert et al, 2016). To incorporate the predictions and underlying assumptions of each model into a single output grid we produced ensemble models of presence-absence and abundance, by calculating weighted averages of the relevant BRT, GAM, and RF models (after Oppel et al, 2012 andAnderson et al, 2016b).…”

Section: Ensemble Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-Resolution Habitat Suitability Models for the Conservation and Management of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems on the Louisville Seamount Chain, South Pacific Ocean

et al. 2017

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Vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) are ecosystems at risk from the effects of fishing or other kinds of disturbance, as determined by the vulnerability of their components (e.g., habitats, communities, or species). Habitat suitability modeling is being used increasingly to predict distribution patterns of VME indicator taxa in the deep sea, where data are particularly sparse, and the models are considered useful for marine ecosystem management. The Louisville Seamount Chain is located within the South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization (SPRFMO) Convention Area, and some seamounts are the subject of bottom trawling for orange roughy by the New Zealand fishery. The aim of the present study was to produce high-resolution habitat suitability maps for VME indicator taxa and VME habitat on these seamounts, in order to evaluate the feasibility of designing within-seamount spatial closures to protect VMEs. We used a multi-model habitat suitability mapping approach, based on bathymetric and backscatter data collected by multibeam echo sounder survey, and data collected by towed underwater camera for the stony coral and habitatforming VME indicator species Solenosmilia variabilis, as well as two taxa indicative of stony coral habitat (Brisingida, Crinoidea). Model performance varied among the different model types used (Boosted Regression Tree, Random Forest, Generalized Additive Models), but abundance-based models consistently out-performed models based on presence-absence data. Uncertainty for ensemble models (combination of all models) was lower overall compared to the other models. Maps resulting from our models showed that suitable habitat for S. variabilis is distributed around the summitslope break of seamounts, and along ridges that extend down the seamount flanks. Only the flat, soft sediment summits are predicted to be unsuitable habitat for this stony coral species. We translated a definition for stony coral-reef habitat into a S. variabilis abundance-based threshold in order to use our models to map this VME habitat. These maps showed that coral-reef occurred in small and isolated patches, and that most of the seabed on these seamounts is predicted to be unsuitable Rowden et al.High-Resolution VME Habitat Suitability Maps habitat for this VME. We discuss the implications of these results for spatial management closures on the Louisville Seamount Chain seamounts and the wider SPRFMO area, and future modeling improvements that could aid efforts to use habitat suitability maps for managing the impact of fishing on VMEs.

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Section: Ensemble Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-Resolution Habitat Suitability Models for the Conservation and Management of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems on the Louisville Seamount Chain, South Pacific Ocean

et al. 2017

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“…We used GLMs to predict and map abundances-an approach widely used and tested in ecological studies (Segurado and Araújo 2004;Elith and Graham 2009;Oppel et al 2012). Predictors within the 'GLOBCOVER' model set failed to explain abundance of male houbara, probably owing to coarse resolution (approx.…”

Section: Analytical Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of habitat and land use on breeding season density of male Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii

et al. 2016

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Landscape-scale habitat and land use influences on Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii (IUCN Vulnerable) remain unstudied, while estimating numbers of this cryptic, low-density, over-hunted species is challenging. In spring 2013, male houbara were recorded at 231 point counts, conducted twice, across a gradient of sheep density and shrub assemblages within 14,300 km 2 of the Kyzylkum Desert, Uzbekistan. Four sets of models related male abundance to: (1) vegetation structure (shrub height and substrate); (2) shrub assemblage; (3) shrub species composition (multidimensional scaling); (4) remote-sensed derived land cover (GLOBCOVER, 4 variables). Each set also incorporated measures of landscape rugosity and sheep density. For each set, multi-model inference was applied to generalised linear mixed models of visit-specific counts that included important detectability covariates and point ID as random effects. Vegetation structure received strongest support, followed by shrub species composition and shrub assemblage, with weakest support for the GLOBCOVER model set. Male houbara numbers were greater with lower mean shrub height, more gravel and flatter surfaces, but were unaffected by sheep density. Male density (mean 0.14 km -2 ) estimated by distance analysis differed substantially among shrub assemblages, being highest in vegetation dominated by Salsola rigida, high in areas of S. arbuscula and Astragalus, respectively, lower in Artemisia and lowest in Calligonum. The study area was estimated to hold 1824 males (CI 1645(CI -2030. The spatial distribution of relative male houbara abundance, predicted from vegetation structure models, had the strongest correspondence with observed numbers in both model calibration and the subsequent year's data. We found no effect of pastoralism on male distribution, but potential effects on nesting females are unknown. Density differences among shrub communities suggest extrapolation to estimate country-or range-wide population size must take into account vegetation composition.

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“…These fine-scale processes cannot be detected using contemporary remote sensing techniques. However, remote sensing can provide oceanographic context for the movements of known individuals over broader spatial and temporal scales, generating insights of direct relevance to predictive habitat modelling [71] and marine spatial planning [51].…”

Section: Composite Front Mapping and Marine Predator Foraging Habitatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mesoscale fronts as foraging habitats: composite front mapping reveals oceanographic drivers of habitat use for a pelagic seabird

Scales

Miller

Embling

et al. 2014

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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The oceanographic drivers of marine vertebrate habitat use are poorly understood yet fundamental to our knowledge of marine ecosystem functioning. Here, we use composite front mapping and high-resolution GPS tracking to determine the significance of mesoscale oceanographic fronts as physical drivers of foraging habitat selection in northern gannets Morus bassanus. We tracked 66 breeding gannets from a Celtic Sea colony over 2 years and used residence time to identify area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. Composite front maps identified thermal and chlorophyll-a mesoscale fronts at two different temporal scales-(i) contemporaneous fronts and (ii) seasonally persistent frontal zones. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), with generalized estimating equations (GEE-GAMs) to account for serial autocorrelation in tracking data, we found that gannets do not adjust their behaviour in response to contemporaneous fronts. However, ARS was more likely to occur within spatially predictable, seasonally persistent frontal zones (GAMs). Our results provide proof of concept that composite front mapping is a useful tool for studying the influence of oceanographic features on animal movements. Moreover, we highlight that frontal persistence is a crucial element of the formation of pelagic foraging hotspots for mobile marine vertebrates.

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Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds

Cited by 254 publications

References 89 publications

High-Resolution Habitat Suitability Models for the Conservation and Management of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems on the Louisville Seamount Chain, South Pacific Ocean

High-Resolution Habitat Suitability Models for the Conservation and Management of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems on the Louisville Seamount Chain, South Pacific Ocean

Effects of habitat and land use on breeding season density of male Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii

Mesoscale fronts as foraging habitats: composite front mapping reveals oceanographic drivers of habitat use for a pelagic seabird

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