Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Flage, Roger; Aven, Terje; Zio, Enrico; Baraldi, Piero

doi:10.1111/risa.12247

Cited by 149 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…For this reason many researchers and risk analysts prefer to use other approaches for representing the epistemic uncertainties, including those based on interval probability, possibility theory and evidence theory, as well as qualitative methods reflecting the strength of the background knowledge K [10]. For the sake of simplicity these alternative approaches are referred to as non-probabilistic methods.…”

Section: The Concepts Of Probability and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the allegations that small risks are treated out of proportion to their importance

Aven¹

2015

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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a b s t r a c tMany authors argue that we suffer from a lack of ability to treat small risks; we either ignore them completely or give them too much emphasis. An example often referred to is terrorism risk, the reference being the number of fatalities observed due to terror compared to for example deaths in traffic accidents. The thesis is that the risk is over-estimated. However, these assertions, that the risks are over-estimated and we give them too much emphasis -they are treated out of proportion to their importance -cannot be justified in any scientifically meaningful way when there are large uncertainties about the consequences of the activity considered. Over-estimation is a value judgment, as is the phrase "far too much emphasis". In the paper the author argues that the statements represent some serious misconceptions about risk. The purpose of the present paper is to point to these misconceptions and provide some guidance on how they can be rectified.

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Section: The Concepts Of Probability and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the allegations that small risks are treated out of proportion to their importance

Aven¹

2015

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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“…An important aspect of modeling uncertainties lies in the appropriate selection of the time window, which is used for the inclusion of data [33]. The traditional empirical approach can lead to either a too conservative or non-conservative estimates of the magnitude of uncertainties based on the arbitrary choice of the length of time window [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment

Sun¹,

Zheng²,

Liu³

2018

Sustainability

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An uncertainty analysis is required to be carried out in formal safety assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization. The purpose of this article is to introduce the uncertainty analysis technique into the FSA process. Based on the uncertainty identification of input parameters, probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. An approach which combines the Monte Carlo random sampling of probability distribution functions with the a-cuts for fuzzy calculus is proposed to propagate the uncertainties. One output of the FSA process is societal risk (SR), which can be evaluated in the two-dimensional frequency-fatality (FN) diagram. Thus, the confidence-level-based SR is presented to represent the uncertainty of SR in two dimensions. In addition, a method for time window selection is proposed to estimate the magnitude of uncertainties, which is an important aspect of modeling uncertainties. Finally, a case study is carried out on an FSA study on cruise ships. The results show that the uncertainty analysis of SR generates a two-dimensional area for a certain degree of confidence in the FN diagram rather than a single FN curve, which provides more information to authorities to produce effective risk control measures.

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“…While sensitivity evaluation experiments on the measurement of subjective probability seem to suggest that numeric measures outperform other scales (Haase et al 2013), in some situations single-valued probability is not considered adequate to represent uncertainty, and non-probabilistic measures interpreted as lower and upper probabilities are seen as more appropriate (Flage et al 2014). It has also been observed that certain uncertainties in scientific advice to policy-makers are not caused by probabilistic predictions, but could originate from a fundamental lack of understanding of new phenomena at or beyond the frontiers of present knowledge (May 2001).…”

Section: Managing Uncertainties In Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors of an international perspective paper (Flage et al 2014) report that measurement of uncertainty within risk assessment can be varied: subjective probability, non-probabilistic representations with interpretations as lower and upper probabilities, non-probabilistic representations with other representations such as degree of belief, degree of possibility, hybrid combinations of probabilistic and non-probabilistic representations and semi-quantitative approaches. They also suggest that where risk analysis of large uncertainties is conducted, probabilities may not reflect the knowledge or information available and recommend the need for an extended framework for risk assessment which reflects the separation that exists between the analyst and decision-maker.…”

Section: Managing Uncertainties In Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and Introduction of the Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) as an Enabler to the ISO 31000 and ISO 31010 for High-Risk Environments

Selvaseelan¹

2018

Administrative Sciences

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Abstract:The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.

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Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Cited by 149 publications

References 74 publications

On the allegations that small risks are treated out of proportion to their importance

On the allegations that small risks are treated out of proportion to their importance

Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment

Development and Introduction of the Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) as an Enabler to the ISO 31000 and ISO 31010 for High-Risk Environments

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