Construction of an ecological model of Sambucus javanica blume in China under different climate scenarios based on maxent model

Abstract

Sambucus javanica Blume. is a Chinese native medicinal plant with high medicinal value. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to explore the relationship between the geographical distribution of S. javanica and environmental factors, and to construct the distribution pattern of S. javanica under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the environmental conditions suitable for the distribution of S. javanica were as follows: precipitation in June ranged from 156.36 mm to 383.25 mm; solar radiation in December ranged from 6750.00 kJ•m-2•day-1 to 10521.00 kJ•m-2•day-1; isothermality ranged from 24.06 to 35.50; precipitation of warmest quarter ranged from 447.92 mm to 825.00 mm. Among them, precipitation and temperature were the key environmental factors affecting the distribution patterns of S. javanica. This plant could grow well mainly in two regions in China, covering a total area of 2.73 × 106 km2. The rst region mainly consists of Guizhou, western Hubei, southeastern Chongqing, southwestern Hunan, northern Guangxi, and a small part of eastern Yunnan. The second region mainly consists of Zhejiang, southern Anhui, and northern Fujian. Under the future SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, potentially suitable habitats in the eastern part of the potential distribution of S. javanica (Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Anhui) might be at risk of habitat fragmentation.Based on the result of this study, Real-time monitoring of wild groups of S. javanica is now recommended to protect its genetic diversity. These ndings are supposed to promote the effective conservation and utilization of S. javanica in the future.

Response to Climate Change and GAP Analysis of Thuja koraiensis Nakai

“…It is necessary to identify suitable habitat conditions in higher elevation areas to alleviate the adverse effects of extreme weather events. This finding is similar to the results reported for T. koraiensis [52], Sambucus javanica [57], Agastache rugosa [58] and Sapindus mukorossi [59].…”

Prediction of Potential Distribution Patterns of Three Larix Species on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Future Climate Scenarios

“…It is one of the key areas for the global climate and water cycle and is known as the Asian water tower; climate change on the QTP makes significant impacts on the surrounding areas and even the global climate system [1,2]. Moreover, climate change on the QTP not only induces soil changes and renders the degeneration of forest vegetation [3], but also enhances the drought vulnerability of the QTP ecological system and influences pattern changes in plant species distribution [4,5]. Although the temperature increment induced by climate change may increase the suitable habitat area of some species [6], for some plant species in special habits it will also reduce the suitable distribution area and may even push the species to the verge of extinction [7,8].…”

“…As one of the species distribution models (SDMs), the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model has been widely applied in the simulation and prediction of potentially suitable distribution areas, distribution patterns, and responses to climate change for various species owing to its advantages including short run time, low sample size requirement, high simulation precision, and good prediction performance [21][22][23]. The MaxEnt model often applies bioclimate variables that represent the characteristics of regional temperature and precipitation to predict potential distribution patterns [5]. As found, bioclimate changes including the interannual and seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation can exhibit a large influence on the plant species distribution patterns on the QTP, due to the great susceptibility of vegetation in this area to climate change [1,16].…”

Climate Change Will Lead to a Significant Reduction in the Global Cultivation of Panicum milliaceum

“…Several studies have used ecological modeling to predict the distribution of Panicum milliaceum's suitable habitat area and clarify its ecological requirements [3,4,[22][23][24]; however, no predictions have been made regarding its suitable habitat area on a global scale. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to explore the effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, and these models also play an important role in inferring the potential geographic distribution of species using Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to explore the effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, and these models also play an important role in inferring the potential geographic distribution of species using environmental factors [24][25][26][27]. There are more than ten popular species distribution models, including Bioclim, Domain, GARP, and MaxEnt, which have been widely used in the fields of plant conservation and utilization and pest invasion [28][29][30].…”