Correcting North Atlantic sea surface salinity biases in the Kiel Climate Model: influences on ocean circulation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-2982-1

Cited by 29 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…These statistical studies are consistent with the above‐mentioned AGCM/hybrid CGCM experiments (Semenov et al, ; Zhang et al, ), illustrating that the enhanced surface heat flux released from the ocean to the atmosphere during a positive AMV and AMOC phase leads to the hemispheric‐scale anomalous surface warming and vice versa. Multidecadal AMOC variability is a key player in AMV's impact on global and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CGCMs' control simulations (Barcikowska et al, ; Park et al, ; Stolpe et al, ; Wu et al, ; Yan et al, ), consistent with the simulated impact of multidecadal AMOC change or collapse on global and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CGCMs' internally perturbed or externally forced simulations (Delworth et al, ; Delworth & Zeng, ; Drijfhout, ; Stolpe et al, ). The linkage between AMV and the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperatures is stronger (weaker) in CGCMs with relatively stronger (weaker) low‐frequency AMOC variability (Yan et al, ).…”

Section: Climate Impacts Of Multidecadal Amoc Variability and Amvmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…For example, the amplitudes of internal variability in subpolar North Atlantic SST and associated winter NAO in a CGCM's historical simulation are much weaker than observed at multidecadal timescales (Figures a and b), which are linked to the underestimated low‐frequency internal AMOC variability (Kim, Yeager, Chang, & Danabasoglu, ). Correcting the mean state North Atlantic SSS and AMOC biases in CGCMs might improve the pattern and amplitude of AMV‐related SST and surface turbulent heat fluxes (Drews & Greatbatch, , ; Park et al, ). The impact of AMV on the anticorrelated multidecadal variability in winter NAO is substantially underestimated in most CGCMs (e.g., Peings et al, ; Ting et al, ), due to the underestimated internally generated AMV signal and associated surface turbulent heat flux anomalies (Peings et al, ).…”

Section: Conclusion and Challenging Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

390

362

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By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.

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Section: Climate Impacts Of Multidecadal Amoc Variability and Amvmentioning

confidence: 56%

Section: Conclusion and Challenging Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Zhang

Sutton

Danabasoglu

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

390

362

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For example, many coupled models tend to be too cold and fresh in the North Atlantic, which may impact the forcing of the AMOC by the North Atlantic Oscillation, and impact the coupling of the AMOC with the surface ocean. Reducing these biases has been found to change the character of decadal variability in coupled models (42). Also, the above biases can alter the AMOC from being thermally driven to being salinity driven, which also likely impacts predictability (43).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal predictability without ocean dynamics

Srivastava

DelSole

2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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This paper shows that the most predictable components of internal variability in coupled atmosphere-ocean models are remarkably similar to the most predictable components of climate models without interactive ocean dynamics (i.e., models whose ocean is represented by a 50-m-deep slab ocean mixed layer with no interactive currents). Furthermore, a linear regression model derived solely from dynamical model output can skillfully predict observed anomalies in these components at least a year or two in advance, indicating that these model-derived components and associated linear dynamics are realistic. These results suggest that interactive ocean circulation is not essential for the existence of multiyear predictability previously identified in coupled models and observations. decadal prediction | decadal predictability | average predictability time | CMIP I n recent years, climate prediction on decadal time scales has gained increased attention because of its growing scientific, geopolitical, and societal importance (1-5). Sources of decadal predictability often are divided into two kinds: predictability caused by external forcing, such as changes in solar insolation, volcanic aerosols, and anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and predictability due to internal variability arising naturally from the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice climate system (6). Climate models suggest that certain structures of internal variability in sea surface temperatures (SST), such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are predictable on decadal/multidecadal time scales (5, 7-9). The precise mechanisms for this decadal predictability are not clear, although the dynamics of ocean circulation are widely believed to play a major role (10-17).Recently, a few studies have challenged the notion that interactive ocean dynamics play a dominant role in decadal predictability (18,19). These studies are based on integrations of atmospheric global circulation models coupled to a slab ocean mixed layer, in which ocean circulation is a prescribed function of time and the ocean interacts with the atmosphere only thermodynamically, through radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. Despite the absence of interactive ocean dynamics, these models can produce realistic variability that is predictable on interannual and longer time scales. For example, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability can arise on interannual and decadal time scales from such models (20)(21)(22). Also, the main features of the observed AMO (e.g., spatial pattern, power spectra, and associated atmospheric circulation) have been reproduced in models without interactive ocean dynamics (23). However, not all details of these simulations are perfect: In some locations, the lag correlation between AMO and surface heat flux has the opposite sign relative to coupled models and observations (14,15). On the other hand, these heat fluxes tend to be nearly canceled by the ocean heat transport convergence on long time scales (24), raisin...

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“…This study also shows that at low frequency, the correlation and regression between

F_{Net}^{'}

and T ′ are key indicators of the relative roles of

f_{O}^{'}

versus

f_{A}^{'}

in T ′ from the simple conceptual model perspective (Appendix ). This paper is focused on the subpolar NA region, which is a crucial region for generating the AMV and having the most pronounced SST anomalies associated with the AMV [ Ruiz‐Barradas et al ., ; Zhang et al ., ; Park et al ., ; Delworth et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

Zhang

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

106

117

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This study identifies key features associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in both observations and a fully coupled climate model, e.g., decadal persistence of monthly mean subpolar North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) anomalies, and high coherence at low frequency among subpolar NA SST/SSS, upper ocean heat/salt content, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) fingerprint. These key AMV features, which can be used to distinguish the AMV mechanism, cannot be explained by the slab ocean model results or the red noise process but are consistent with the ocean dynamics mechanism. This study also shows that at low frequency, the correlation and regression between net surface heat flux and SST anomalies are key indicators of the relative roles of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing in SST anomalies. The oceanic forcing plays a dominant role in the subpolar NA SST anomalies associated with the AMV.

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Correcting North Atlantic sea surface salinity biases in the Kiel Climate Model: influences on ocean circulation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Cited by 29 publications

References 28 publications

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Decadal predictability without ocean dynamics

On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

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