Country-level assessment of long-term global bioenergy potential

Abstract

Available online Keywords:Bioenergy Potential Global Residues Crops a b s t r a c t Most long-term global energy scenarios rely on biomass for a variety of possible uses, but there is unlikely to be enough to replace the majority of fossil fuel use in all sectors.Improving the understanding of the sustainable and realistic potential for biomass is crucial.We present a comprehensive, country-based, bottom-up assessment of the land-based global biofuel (bioethanol and biodiesel) potential, taking into account a range of scenarios with varying yield gradients, land-use change and technology development, covering energy from both lignocellulosic and food crops as well as residues from agriculture and forestry. We have also gone beyond many other studies by analysing the potential for food crop based biofuels as well as lignocellulosic-sourced biofuels.We find a global biofuel supply potential increasing from 15e70 EJ final transport fuel energy (30e140 EJ primary energy) currently to 40e190 EJ (130e400 EJ) in 2070, depending on the development of land-use, productivity and technology mix. Over 3/4 of this potential comes from energy crops: up to 70% could come from food crops and at least 10% from lignocellulosic crops. The remaining quarter would be from agricultural and forestry residues. For comparison, current (2010) total global energy use (fuel, heat and electricity) stands at 365 EJ final energy (530 EJ primary energy). Depending on demand developments, countries such as Brazil or Russia could become net bioenergy exporters in the second half of the century, while others, such as India or Nigeria, may become net importers.

Spatial distribution of usable biomass feedstock and technical bioenergy potential in China

“…Figure 1 illustrates the statistical and RS-GIS methodologies adopted in these studies to assess bioenergy potential. Many studies have utilized the statistical method to assess the potential at the administrative division level, including the global level (Yamamoto, Fujino, & Yamaji, 2001;Yamamoto, Yamaji, & Fujino, 2000), the country level (De Wit & Faaij, 2010;Deng, Koper, Haigh, & Dornburg, 2015;Hoefnagels, Resch, Junginger, & Faaij, 2014), the provincial level (Chang, Wu, Zhou, Shi, & Yang, 2014;Chen, Xing, & Han, 2009;Ji, 2015;Jiang et al, 2017;Shane et al, 2016), and the county level (Brosowski et al, 2016;Muth, Bryden, & Nelson, 2013). This approach has been used frequently in the assessment of bioenergy potential because the calculation is simple, easy to implement and reproduce, and data are easily acquired from the National Bureau of Statistics.…”

Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America

“…For comparability, we rely on global studies for national biomass potential which include both countries. While [112] conservatively calculate biomass residue potentials of at least 7200 PJ/a for Brazil and 400 PJ/a for Mexico, [113] calculate 11,690 PJ of biofuel potential for Brazil and 1100 PJ for Mexico in a medium case. Additional assessments for Brazil accounted for 600 Mio t of dry matter of biomass [114] (equal to 9600 PJ primary energy), or calculate potentials for power from bioenergy between 13-27 GW [53,115].…”

Geographical perspectives on sociotechnical transitions and emerging bio-economies: introduction to a special issue

“…Even if these economic barriers are lifted, however, the logical extension of these efforts meets a biophysical limit. The maximum quantity of energy that could be provided by biomass grown on land at a global scale is estimated at 450 exajoules (EJ), assuming increased efficiencies in existing food systems and new harvesting systems adopted by farmers and foresters all over the world are able to open up vast tracts of arable land for dedicated biomass production (Berndes, Hoogwijk, and van den Broek 2003; see also Deng et al 2015). Global energy consumption, on the other hand, is already at 500 EJ.…”