This article identifies and quantifies the 10 most important benchmarks for climate action to be taken by 2020-2025 to keep the window open for a 1.5°C-consistent GHG emission pathway. We conducted a comprehensive review of existing emissions scenarios, scanned all sectors and the respective necessary transitions, and distilled the most important short-term benchmarks for action in line with the long-term perspective of the required global low-carbon transition. Owing to the limited carbon budget, combined with the inertia of existing systems, global energy economic models find only limited pathways to stay on track for a 1.5°C world consistent with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.The identified benchmarks include:. Sustain the current growth rate of renewables and other zero and low-carbon power generation until 2025 to reach 100% share by 2050; . No new coal power plants, reduce emissions from existing coal fleet by 30% by 2025;. Last fossil fuel passenger car sold by 2035-2050;. Develop and agree on a 1.5°C-consistent vision for aviation and shipping;. All new buildings fossil-free and near-zero energy by 2020;. Increase building renovation rates from less than 1% in 2015 to 5% by 2020;. All new installations in emissions-intensive sectors low-carbon after 2020, maximize material efficiency; . Reduce emissions from forestry and other land use to 95% below 2010 levels by 2030, stop net deforestation by 2025; . Keep agriculture emissions at or below current levels, establish and disseminate regional best practice, ramp up research; . Accelerate research and planning for negative emission technology deployment. Key policy insights. These benchmarks can be used when designing policy options that are 1.5°C, Paris Agreement consistent. . They require technology diffusion and sector transformations at a large scale and high speed, in many cases immediate introduction of zero-carbon technologies, not marginal efficiency improvements. . For most benchmarks we show that there are signs that the identified needed transitions are possible: in some specific cases it is already happening.
Available online Keywords:Bioenergy Potential Global Residues Crops a b s t r a c t Most long-term global energy scenarios rely on biomass for a variety of possible uses, but there is unlikely to be enough to replace the majority of fossil fuel use in all sectors.Improving the understanding of the sustainable and realistic potential for biomass is crucial.We present a comprehensive, country-based, bottom-up assessment of the land-based global biofuel (bioethanol and biodiesel) potential, taking into account a range of scenarios with varying yield gradients, land-use change and technology development, covering energy from both lignocellulosic and food crops as well as residues from agriculture and forestry. We have also gone beyond many other studies by analysing the potential for food crop based biofuels as well as lignocellulosic-sourced biofuels.We find a global biofuel supply potential increasing from 15e70 EJ final transport fuel energy (30e140 EJ primary energy) currently to 40e190 EJ (130e400 EJ) in 2070, depending on the development of land-use, productivity and technology mix. Over 3/4 of this potential comes from energy crops: up to 70% could come from food crops and at least 10% from lignocellulosic crops. The remaining quarter would be from agricultural and forestry residues. For comparison, current (2010) total global energy use (fuel, heat and electricity) stands at 365 EJ final energy (530 EJ primary energy). Depending on demand developments, countries such as Brazil or Russia could become net bioenergy exporters in the second half of the century, while others, such as India or Nigeria, may become net importers.
IntroductionThe last 200 years have witnessed an incredible increase in energy use worldwide. In recent decades, it has become clear that the way in which this energy is supplied is unsustainable and both short-and long-term energy security are at the top of the political and societal agenda. Scenario studies, which chart possible futures, typically show small incremental changes against a "business-as-usual" (BAU) reference. In contrast, evidence suggests that we should be able to meet our energy demand entirely from renewable sources, given their abundance: Global final energy use was ~310 EJ in 2007 (~500 EJ in primary energy terms) [1], whereas technical potentials for renewable energy sources range in the order of hundreds to thousands of exajoules per year.In an attempt to reconcile these figures, the Ecofys energy scenario provides a comprehensive analysis, examining all energy uses worldwide, all carrier forms (e.g., electricity or fuel), and all purposes (heat in buildings or heat in industry).The key question which guided our study was: "Is a fully sustainable global energy system possible by 2050?"We conclude that an (almost) fully sustainable energy supply is technically and economically feasible, given ambitious, but realistic, growth rates of sustainable energy sources. The path to achieving this system deviates significantly from BAU and sometimes difficult choices must be made on the way. The work presented in this chapter is an adapted version of a larger report published in 2011, and subsequent scientific publications [2][3][4].
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