Transition to a Fully Sustainable Global Energy System

Abstract

IntroductionThe last 200 years have witnessed an incredible increase in energy use worldwide. In recent decades, it has become clear that the way in which this energy is supplied is unsustainable and both short-and long-term energy security are at the top of the political and societal agenda. Scenario studies, which chart possible futures, typically show small incremental changes against a "business-as-usual" (BAU) reference. In contrast, evidence suggests that we should be able to meet our energy demand entirely from renewable sources, given their abundance: Global final energy use was ~310 EJ in 2007 (~500 EJ in primary energy terms) [1], whereas technical potentials for renewable energy sources range in the order of hundreds to thousands of exajoules per year.In an attempt to reconcile these figures, the Ecofys energy scenario provides a comprehensive analysis, examining all energy uses worldwide, all carrier forms (e.g., electricity or fuel), and all purposes (heat in buildings or heat in industry).The key question which guided our study was: "Is a fully sustainable global energy system possible by 2050?"We conclude that an (almost) fully sustainable energy supply is technically and economically feasible, given ambitious, but realistic, growth rates of sustainable energy sources. The path to achieving this system deviates significantly from BAU and sometimes difficult choices must be made on the way. The work presented in this chapter is an adapted version of a larger report published in 2011, and subsequent scientific publications [2][3][4].

The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain

“…The 2050 energy system is then projected 'backwards', reading from right to left in the figure. Following Deng, each country's demand for energy services (such as the distance people travel or the value added by industry) is projected to 2050 using macroeconomic relationships with population, income, energy prices and sectorspecific details [52]. These service demands are then allocated to final energy demands using inputs on the technology mix and efficiencies in 2050, and then translated into primary energy requirements for each fuel.…”

What could the next 40 years hold for global tourism?

“…The implications for long-haul dependent destinations are clear. Deng, Blok, and van der Leun (2012) provided an alternate energy future, one that has phased out fossil fuels and consists of entirely renewable energy sources by 2050. In this scenario, ground based transportation is extensively electrified and a massive scale-up of biofuels is used as the fossil fuel replacement where liquid fuels are required.…”

The role of biosolar technologies in future energy supply making scenarios for the Netherlands: Energy port and energy farm

“…Some of these include technologies that are contested, such as CSS and genetic modification or synthetic biology in algae (Huijts, Midden, & Meijnders, 2007;Snow & Smith, 2012). Most sustainable energy scenario studies are built on the implementation of (improved) existing technologies, such as PV solar power, wind power, geothermal electrification of transport, and building insulation (Deng, Blok, & Van der Leun, 2012;Treffers, Faaij, Spakman, & Seebregts, 2005). In both cases, it is difficult to predict the extent to which these technologies will contribute to the ultimate goal of a fully renewable energy system in 2050.…”