Credit Where it’s Due? Valence Politics, Attributions of Responsibility, and Multi-Level Elections

Abstract

When considering elections in multi-level contexts, scholars have typically assumed-in line with second-order election theory-that the way voters approach an election depends on their attributions of responsibility, that is, on what they see as being at stake in that election. This assumption is questionable. The formal position is not always clear, and is further blurred by parties and the media. Moreover, many voters pay little attention to politics and have little incentive to trace constitutional responsibilities. In this paper I use data from election studies in two multi-level contexts, Ontario and Scotland, to explore the nature and impact of voters' attributions of responsibility. The evidence suggests that, when called upon in surveys to do so, many voters can confidently and fairly accurately assign issues to different levels of government. Yet they do not seem to consider these attributions much at elections. There is very little indication that issues weighed heavier in the decision-making of those who regarded them as the responsibility of that electoral arena. A plausible explanation is that most voters sidestep the cognitive demands imposed by multi-level elections.

Blame and Punishment? The Electoral Politics of Extreme Austerity in Greece

“…In 2010, much of the campaigning was indeed directed at local issues (Gemenis, ). In some instances, however, voters may not automatically perceive regional and local elections as ‘second order’ (Ervik, ; Johns, ). This may be particularly true in the Greek case, since two weeks before Election Day, Papandreou announced that he would call a snap general election if voters were not expressing sufficient support for PASOK candidates.…”

Asymmetric federalism and economic voting

“…See, e.g., Cutler () for Canada; Rudolph () for the United States; Johns () for Ontario and Scotland; or Hobolt and Tilley () for the European Union.…”

‘Less at Stake’ or a Different Game? Regional Elections in Catalonia and Scotland

“…Thus, some scholars point to a continuum rather than a dichotomy, with elections ranging from purely first-order (with decisions driven entirely by factors pertaining to that arena) to purely second-order (van der Eijk et al, 1996). Such patterns may vary in three important respects: across countries (many countries have more than one level of government, and the amount 'at stake' may vary substantially between levels), across time (the salience of the issues, a particular heated campaign or an economic crisis may increase the perceived amount at stake), and across voters (some individuals may prioritize one level of government over another, depending on their particular concerns or focus) (Johns, 2008). Thus, dependency would be also a question of degree and not just of quality.…”