Critical thinking skills in tactical decision making: A model and a training strategy.

Cohen, Marvin S.; Freeman, Jared; Thompson, Bryan

doi:10.1037/10278-006

Cited by 83 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…There are accounts of uncertainty in finance (Rowe, 1994), management (Priem, Love, & Shaffer, 2002), medicine (Brashers et al, 2003), negotiation (Bottom, 1998), military tactics (Cohen, Freeman, & Thompson, 1998), and engineering (Wojtkiewicz, Eldred, Field, Urbina, & Red-Horse, 2001). Problem solvers across these settings draw on an array of domain-specific tools and methods to deal with uncertainty, such as rapid prototyping in engineering and design (Skelton & Thamhain, 2003) and statistical procedures such as Monte Carlo simulations and computational modeling in the sciences.…”

Section: Reasoning Judgmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analogy as a strategy for supporting complex problem solving under uncertainty

2012

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Complex problem solving in naturalistic environments is fraught with uncertainty, which has significant impacts on problem-solving behavior. Thus, theories of human problem solving should include accounts of the cognitive strategies people bring to bear to deal with uncertainty during problem solving. In this article, we present evidence that analogy is one such strategy. Using statistical analyses of the temporal dynamics between analogy and expressed uncertainty in the naturalistic problem-solving conversations among scientists on the Mars Rover Mission, we show that spikes in expressed uncertainty reliably predict analogy use (Study 1) and that expressed uncertainty reduces to baseline levels following analogy use (Study 2). In addition, in Study 3, we show with qualitative analyses that this relationship between uncertainty and analogy is not due to miscommunication-related uncertainty but, rather, is primarily concentrated on substantive problem-solving issues. Finally, we discuss a hypothesis about how analogy might serve as an uncertainty reduction strategy in naturalistic complex problem solving.

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Section: Reasoning Judgmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analogy as a strategy for supporting complex problem solving under uncertainty

2012

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“…For example, Calderwood, Klein, & Crandall (1988) found that the first responses considered by chess masters tended to be high quality. Cohen and his colleagues (Cohen, Freeman, & Thompson, 1998;Cohen, 2002) found that after NDM-based training, decision strategies more nearly resembled the strategies used by experts and decisions more nearly resembled the decisions of experts.…”

Section: Does Empirically Based Warrant Make Sense?mentioning

confidence: 98%

“…reviewing prior experiences to derive new insights and lessons from mistakes); building mental models; and obtaining coaching." Another, related approach is to train the metacognitive skills by means of which decision makers monitor their own thinking and take corrective steps when problems are found (Cohen, Freeman, & Wolf, 1996;Cohen, Freeman & Thompson, 1998;. Such skills may be more general across different domains than the specific cues, patterns, and strategies that compose specialized expertise (Means et al, 1993;Kuhn, Amsel, & O'Loughlin, 1988).…”

Section: Empirical Warrants For Naturalistic Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The data set comprised 14 interviews with active-duty naval officers representing anti-air-warfare, executive officer, and tactical action officer positions in the Combat Information Center of AEGIS cruisers (Cohen, Freeman, & Wolf, 1996;Cohen, 26 Freeman, & Thompson., 1998;Kaempf, Klein, Thordsen, & Wolf, 1996), and 25 interviews with 23 Army command staff officers in operations, planning, and intelligence at division, brigade, and battalion levels (Cohen, 2002;Cohen, Freeman, & Thompson, 1997;Cohen et al, 2000a). All interviews employed a variant of the critical decision making method, a semi-structured interview technique which elicits rich and specific factual descriptions of episodes during which challenging decisions were made (Crandall, 1989;Hoffman, Crandall, & Shadbolt, 1998;Taynor, Crandall, & Wiggins, 1987).…”

Section: Empirically Based Prescription In Actionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Warrants for Prescription: Analytically and Empirically Based Approaches to Improving Decision Making

Lipshitz

Cohen

2005

Hum Factors

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Efforts to improve decision making must appeal to some source of warrant, i.e., specific criteria or models for guiding and evaluating decision making performance. We examine and compare the warrants for two approaches to decision aids, decision training, and consulting:analytically based prescription, which obtains warrant from formal models, and empirically based prescription, which obtains warrant from descriptive models of successful performance. We argue that empirically based warrants can provide a meaningful and valid basis for prescriptive intervention without committing the naturalistic fallacy (i.e., confusing what is with what ought to be) and without the use of formal deduction from first principles.We describe points of divergence as well as convergence in the types of warrant appealed to by naturalistic decision making and decision analysis, letting each approach shed light on the other, and explore the application of empirically-based prescription to Cognitive Engineering.

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“…This last type is also called "critical thinking training" (CTT) [Blickensderfer et al, 1998;Cohen et al, 1998;Fowlkes et al, 1998]. We can notice that the event-based approach to training (EBAT) uses naturalistic decision making [Fowlkes et al, 1998] and is thus directly in the scope of our research question.…”

Section: Training Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Training decision-makers: Existing strategies for natural and technological crisis management and specifications of an improved simulation-based tool

et al. 2017

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Serious games and environmental computer-based simulations can be useful training tools for people who have to act in emergencies. Currently, stakeholders who deal with crises have to make decisions under stress, for example in order to mitigate consequences or avoid negative impacts on high-stake elements.Many factors are critical in a training environment for ensuring that effective learning occurs, principally: experience improvement, engagement and immersion, and realism. This paper aims to identify the limits of existing learning systems for emergency stakeholders within a crisis cell and then to propose a set of recommendations in order to specify a system to improve the effectiveness of peoples' actions in case of a major crisis.The development of this approach requires the pooling of information concerning varied and multidisciplinary skills. The paper first focuses on the classical difficulties of crisis management, after which the notion of experience in decision-making is defined. The issue is studied from three points of view: the educational approach, the simulation system, and the training environment.The last section of this paper contributes to establishing a set of enhancements which can lead to the specification of simulation based learning systems for further development. More particularly, we specify the needed characteristics of our learning approach and teaching strategy. Finally, we propose a model with the main steps that have to be implemented in order to design a new learning system: a semi-virtual training environment for strategic crisis management.

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Critical thinking skills in tactical decision making: A model and a training strategy.

Abstract: In this chapter we describe a model of decision-making skills under time stress, a training strategy based on that model, and experimental tests of the training strategy. A prime example of the kind of decision making 155

Cited by 83 publications

References 15 publications

Analogy as a strategy for supporting complex problem solving under uncertainty

Analogy as a strategy for supporting complex problem solving under uncertainty

Warrants for Prescription: Analytically and Empirically Based Approaches to Improving Decision Making

Training decision-makers: Existing strategies for natural and technological crisis management and specifications of an improved simulation-based tool

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