Cycles of Malaria Associated With El Niño in Venezuela

Bouma, Menno J.

doi:10.1001/jama.1997.03550210070041

Cited by 130 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Both Colombia and neighbouring VenezuelJ share the Niiio" year as highest-risk year (+g5. I "/ v and + 37%, respectively), for which we have proposed an ecological explanation (Bouma & Dye 1997). In Venezuela, the Nifio" is a low-risk year in contrast to Colombia, where the Nifio" year is associated with increased risk.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Predicting high‐risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation

Bouma

Poveda

Rojas

et al. 1997

Tropical Med Int Health

126

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SummaryT h e interannual variation in malaria cases in Colombia between ~9 6 0 and 1992 shows a close association with a periodic climatic phenomenon known as El Niiio Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Compared with other years, malaria cases increased by ~7 . 3 % ) during a Nirio year and by 35.1% in the post-Niiio year. T h e annual total number of malaria cases is also strongly correlated ( Y = 0.62, P < 0.001) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a principal parameter of ENSO. T h e strong relation between malaria and ENSO in Colombia can be used to predict high and low-risk years for malaria with sufficient time to mobilize resources to reduce the impact of epidemics. In view of the current El Nino conditions, we anticipate an increase in malaria cases in Colombia in 1998. Further studies to elucidate the mechanisms which underlie the association are required. As Colombia has a wide range of climatic conditions, regional studies relating climate and vector ecology to malaria incidence may further improve an ENSO-based early warning system. Predicting malaria risk associated with ENSO and related climate variables may also serve as a short-term analogue for predicting longer-term effects posed by global climate change.keywords Malaria, Colombia, El Niiio, ENSO, early warning system. correspondence M. J. Bouma,

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Predicting high‐risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation

Bouma

Poveda

Rojas

et al. 1997

Tropical Med Int Health

126

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“…El Niño has been linked to outbreaks of malaria (11,12), cholera (13), dengue fever (14,15), and other emerging infectious diseases (16).…”

Section: El Niño and Communicable Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Climate Variation and Change on Diarrheal Disease in the Pacific Islands

Singh¹,

Hales²,

Wet³

et al. 2001

Environmental Health Perspectives

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“…It extends across the entire tropical Pacific Ocean, encompassing (1) the trade winds blowing from east to west, (2) air forced to rise over the western Pacific, south-east Asia and northern Australia through enhanced convection, (3) winds blowing counter to the trades aloft, and (4) air descending over the eastern Pacific Ocean [see e.g., Gill, 1982]. Changes in the Walker Circulation are linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which drives major changes in rainfall [Ropelewski and Halpert, 1989;Allan et al, 1996;Power et al, 1999], river flow [Kahya and Dracup, 1993;Merendo, 1995;Power et al, 1999], agricultural production [Phillips et al, 1998;Hammer et al, 2000;Power et al, 1999], ecosystems [Holmgren et al, 2001] and disease [Nicholls, 1993;Bouma and Dye, 1997] in many parts of the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Niño both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed?

Power

Smith

2007

Geophysical Research Letters

153

149

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Changes in El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Walker Circulation can be routinely monitored using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Here we show that the lowest 30‐year average value of the June–December SOI just occurred (i.e. in 1977–2006), and that this coincided with the highest recorded value in mean sea‐level pressure at Darwin, the weakest equatorial surface wind‐stresses and the highest tropical sea‐surface temperatures on record. We also document what appears to be a concurrent period of unprecedented El Niño dominance. However, our results, together with results from climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas levels, suggest that the recent apparent dominance might instead reflect a shift to a lower mean SOI value. It seems that global warming now needs to be taken into account in both the formulation of ENSO indices and in the evaluation and exploitation of statistical links between ENSO and climate variability over the globe. This could very well lead to the development of more accurate seasonal‐to‐interannual climate forecasts.

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Cycles of Malaria Associated With El Niño in Venezuela

Cited by 130 publications

References 11 publications

Predicting high‐risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation

Predicting high‐risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation

The Influence of Climate Variation and Change on Diarrheal Disease in the Pacific Islands

Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Niño both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed?

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