Blue carbon is identified as a natural climate solution as it provides multiple ecosystem services, including climate mitigation, adaptation, and other co-benefits. There remain ongoing challenges for blue carbon as a natural climate solution, particularly as blue carbon ecosystems are at risk from climate change. Concepts of uniformitarianism were applied to consider how the present and past behaviour of blue carbon ecosystems can inform decision-makers of blue carbon risks. Climate change may increase the capture and storage of blue carbon in the short to medium term; this is largely due to negative feedbacks between elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature, and supplemented by natural processes of sediment supply and accumulation. Opportunities for retreat and increasing carbon storage as sea levels rise are likely to be greater where sea level has a longer history of relative stability, largely in the Southern Hemisphere. Landward retreat will be crucial where millennia of sea-level rise have limited the capacity for in situ blue carbon additionality; this may be thwarted by highly developed coastal zones and coastal squeeze effects. Negative feedbacks may fail under higher emissions, greater warming and rates of sea-level rise exceeding ~5-7 mm yr. À1 ; this tipping point may be surpassed within the next century under a high emissions scenario. Retreat of blue carbon ecosystems to higher elevations where they are afforded protection from the effects of sea-level rise will be critical for blue carbon additionality. Carbon markets are prepared to incentivise restoration of blue carbon ecosystems as they adapt to climate change; however, knowledge gaps remain, particularly regarding the behaviour of blue carbon ecosystems in the global south. Given the momentum in blue carbon research, scientists and practitioners are well placed to continue addressing blue carbon risks.
Impact statementThe role of coastal ecosystems in sequestering atmospheric carbon has been demonstrated and efforts are underway to leverage this service for climate change mitigation. Focussing largely on mangroves and saltmarshes, this paper applies concepts of uniformitarianism to consider how the present behaviour of blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), and their response to varying sea level and climate change in the past, provides knowledge of BCE futures. There is evidence BCEs are being modified by climate change, and losses are compounded by ongoing clearance and degradation. Consequently, atmospheric warming, sea-level rise and human modifications have important implications for greenhouse gas fluxes from BCEs. Observations of the response of BCEs to sea-level rise indicate some capacity to adapt by accumulating mineral and organic material and increasing substrate elevations. Contributions of organic matter to substrates as sea level rises, coupled with landward retreat of BCEs to maintain their intertidal position, bolsters capacity to sequester atmospheric carbon within substrates and biomass. However, evidence of the response...