Dampak Perubahan Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak Terhadap Kinerja Sektor Pertanian (Pendekatan Analisis Input-Ouput)

Abstract

<strong>English</strong><br />This study aims to estimate quantitative impacts of fuel price adjustment on prices of agribusiness inputs and outputs, inflation and household expenditures, farm profitability and farmers’ welfare as well as Gross Domestic Products form agriculture sector as the key parameters in designing policies related with fuel price adjustment to be conducted by the Government in the future. This study applies an Input-Output analysis (National Input-Output Table 2005). Micro agribusiness survey was also conducted to check validity of the macro secondary data. The Input-Output analysis shows if fuel price is raised by 100% then the agribusiness profitability will decrease by around 0.095–0.142% for food and horticulture farms, 0.052–0.141% for estate crops farms, 0.537-0.756% for livestock farms and 0.058–0.223% for post-harvest and processing business. Inflation elasticity is 0.044%. If the fuel price is raised by 1% then inflation will increase by 0.044%. Inflation rate can be seen as the increase in the household cost of living if there is no change in quantity of the consumption. Accordingly, if the fuel price is indeed must be increased to reduce the budget expense of the fuel subsidy and to improve energy use efficiency then it should be conducted gradually, say 10% per occasion, such that it would not have significant impacts on agricultural performance as well as farmers’ and rural people’s welfare. It is regrettable to see the historical experience that the government tends to postpone adjusting the fuel price, perhaps for political reason, but in the end has to rise fuel price sharply causing significant negative impacts on agricultural performances as well as farmers’ welfare.<br /><br /><strong>Indonesia</strong><br />Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk memperoleh dugaan dampak perubahan harga BBM terhadap harga sarana, prasarana, dan hasil usaha pertanian, serta kinerja sektor pertanian yang merupakan parameter kunci dalam perumusan kebijakan terkait dengan penyesuaian harga BBM yang kemungkinan besar masih akan harus dilakukan pemerintah. Metode yang digunakan untuk menjawab tujuan tersebut adalah analisis input-output (Tabel IO Nasional tahun 2005). Survei mikro usaha pertanian juga dilakukan sebagai validasi kelogisan hasil analisis IO. Analisis input-output menunjukkan bahwa apabila harga BBM ditingkatkan 100% maka profitabilitas usaha akan menurun sekitar 0,095–0,142% untuk usaha tanaman pangan dan hortikultura, sekitar 0,052–0,141% untuk usaha perkebunan, sekitar 0,537–0,756% untuk usaha peternakan, dan sekitar 0,058–0,223% untuk usaha pascapanen dan pengolahan hasil pertanian. Elastisitas inflasi terhadap harga BBM adalah 0,044%. Apabila harga BBM ditingkatkan 1%, inflasi akan meningkat 0,044%. Inflasi dapat pula dipandang sebagai peningkatan biaya hidup atau pengeluaran konsumsi penduduk bila tidak ada perubahan kuantitas konsumsi. Oleh karena itu, kalau memang harus dilakukan guna mengurangi beban anggaran subsidi dan mendorong efisiensi penggunaan energi, kebijakan penyesuaian harga BBM sebaiknya dilakukan secara bertahap, misalnya 10% tiap kali peningkatan, sehingga dampaknya tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian maupun terhadap kesejahteraan petani dan penduduk perdesaan secara umum. Namun, pengalaman dari masa lalu menunjukkan bahwa pemerintah cenderung menunda-nunda kenaikan harga BBM, barangkali karena alasan politik, sehingga terpaksa melakukan kenaikan harga BBM secara tajam dan dampaknya terhadap kinerja usaha pertanian dan kesejahteraan petani pun akan besar.

Factors affecting the policy for determining the retail selling price of gas oil in Indonesia

“…Besides, Simatupang and Friyatno in their research suggest that the inflation elasticity of fuel prices is 0.044%. This means that if the fuel price is increased by 1%, inflation will increase by 0.044% (Simatupang & Friyatno, 2016).…”

“…Furthermore, in the research entitled "The Impact of Changes in Oil Fuel Prices on Agricultural Sector Performance" stated that the inflation elasticity of fuel prices was 0.044%. This means that if the fuel price is increased by 1%, inflation will increase by 0.044% (Simatupang & Friyatno, 2016). Meanwhile, Hasan in his research entitled "The Impact of Revocation of Fuel Subsidies for Indonesian State Finances in Good Governance Perspective", said that the increase in fuel prices led to an increase in the number of unemployed which led to an increase in poverty rates in Indonesia (Hasan, 2018).…”

The Impact of the Increase of Oil Fuel Price and Government Subsidy on Indonesia’s Economic Performance

“…An increase in fuel prices will cause production costs and transportation costs to rise, which will ultimately increase the price of goods and services in general. This can trigger inflation and reduce people's purchasing power, (Simatupang and Friyatno, 2016;Suryadi, 2015).…”

Rancang Bangun Water Pump Solar Energy Portable Perairan Sawah Untuk Membantu Petani Kabupaten Probolinggo

“…Untuk usaha tanaman pangan dan hortikultura, profitabilitas usaha akan turun sekitar 0,95-1,42 persen; untuk usaha perkebunan turun sekitar 0,52-1,41 persen; untuk usaha peternakan turun sekitar 5,37-7,56 persen; dan untuk usaha pasca panen dan pengolahan hasil pertanian turun sekitar 0,58-2,23 persen. Oleh karena itu, dicari solusi agar ketergantungan petani terhadap bahan bakar untuk pengolahan hasil pertanian dapat dikurangi [2].…”