Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

Abstract

This paper seeks to determine the effects that natural disasters have on per capita GDP and on the debt to GDP ratio in the Caribbean. Two types of natural disasters are studied-storms and floods-given their prevalence in the region, while considering the effects of both moderate and severe disasters. I use a vector autoregressive model with exogenous natural disasters shocks, in a panel of 12 Caribbean countries over a period of 40 years. The results show that both storms and floods have a negative effect on growth, and that debt increases with floods but not with storms. However, in a subsample I find that storms significantly increase debt in the short and long run. I also find weak evidence that debt relief contributes to ease the negative effects of storms on debt.

Hydraulic studies and their influence for regional urban planning: a pratical approach to Fynchal’s rivers

“…The research, enable to conclude that the roughness coefficient andwater volume flow in an artificial channel affect each other making the section geometry asignificant role in balancing the two (ACPA, 1997;Hossain, et al, 2009;Aupoix, 2015;Dimitriadis, et al, 2016).Thus, it is advised that close tourban agglomerations, cultivated fields or other important infrastructure, measures like: enlargement of the cross-section and/or deepening of the channel, executed based on materials that produceminor friction forces allowing the flow, focusing on flood events, to stay in the channel and process rapidly in these situations with minor turbulence, thereby ensuring the safety of inhabitants and existing infrastructures. Such measures will depend on the sensitivity of local governments to this issue, focusing mainly on a correct planning and spatial planning, an essential tool in the prevention of extreme phenomena (Baioni, 2011;Acevedo-Espinoza, 2014;Faccini, et al, 2014;Neal, et al, 2015;Castanho et al, 2016).…”

“…Despite the difficulty in determining the coefficient of roughness, several scientificdocuments such as books, articles and studies have been published over the years (Harun-ur-Rashid, 1990;ACPA, 1997;Martins, 2000;Lyra, 2003;IHB, 2005;Abayati, et al, 2006;Szydłowski & Magnuszewski, 2007;De Doncker, et al, 2009;Hossain, et al, 2009;Baioni, 2011;Acevedo-Espinoza, 2014;Aupoix, 2015;Li, et al, 2015;Neal, et al, 2015;Cienciala & Hassan, 2016;Dimitriadis, et al, 2016;Verschoren, et al, 2016;Wei, et al, 2016), contributing to a significant improvement in applied methods, methodologies and materials, focusing not only technical aspects but also their influence in urban planning processes.…”

Enhancing macroeconomic resilience to natural disasters and climate change in the small states of the Pacific

“…Raddatz () finds small countries are hurt more by windstorms, but helped by moderate floods; the latter result seems to derive from higher electricity‐generating capacity given more plentiful water supply. Acevedo () finds negative effects from both storms and floods in Caribbean countries. Loayza et al () find that although small disasters may have a positive effect in the short term (owing to reconstruction boosting growth, for example), the short‐term effect of large disasters on growth is always negative.…”

The weight of islands: Leveraging Grenada's material stocks to adapt to climate change

“…In the past 40 years, the Caribbean region alone experienced more than 250 natural disasters. Over 12 million people have been affected, with economic damages of about 1% of the Caribbean GDP every year (Acevedo Mejia, ). The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season alone is estimated to have cost over $200 billion USD in damages (NWS, ), with storms Harvey, Irma, and Maria gaining widespread news coverage as buildings and critical infrastructure stocks were rendered unusable in the United States and Caribbean.…”