Abstract. Coastal ecosystems are biologically productive, and their diversity
underlies various ecosystem services to humans. However, large-scale species
richness (SR) and its regulating factors remain uncertain for many organism
groups, owing not least to the fact that observed SR (SRobs) depends on
sample size and inventory completeness (IC). We estimated changes in SR
across a natural geographical gradient using statistical rarefaction and
extrapolation methods, based on a large fish species incidence dataset
compiled for shallow coastal areas (<30 m depth) from Swedish fish
survey databases. The data covered a ca. 1300 km north–south distance and a
12-fold salinity gradient along sub-basins of the Baltic Sea plus the Skagerrak
and, depending on the sub-basin, 4 to 47 years of samplings during 1975–2021.
Total fish SRobs was 144, and the observed fish species were of 74 %
marine and 26 % freshwater origin. In the 10 sub-basins with sufficient
data for further analysis, IC ranged from 77 % to 98 %, implying that ca.
2 %–23 % of likely existing fish species had remained undetected. Sample
coverage exceeded 98.5 %, suggesting that undetected species represented
<1.5 % of incidences across the sub-basins, i.e. highly rare
species. To compare sub-basins, we calculated standardized SR (SRstd)
and estimated SR (SRest). Sub-basin-specific SRest varied between
35 ± 7 (SE) and 109 ± 6 fish species, being ca. 3 times
higher in the most saline (salinity 29–32) compared to the least saline
sub-basins (salinity < 3). Analysis of functional attributes showed
that differences with decreasing salinity particularly reflected a
decreasing SR of benthic and demersal fish, of piscivores and invertivores,
and of marine migratory species. We conclude that, if climate change
continues causing an upper-layer freshening of the Baltic Sea, this may
influence the SR, community composition and functional characteristics of
fish, which in turn may affect ecosystem processes such as benthic–pelagic
coupling and connectivity between coastal and open-sea areas.