Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century

Hjort, Jan; Karjalainen, Olli; Aalto, Juha; Westermann, Sebastian; Romanovsky, V. E.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Etzelmüller, Bernd; Luoto, Miska

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4

Cited by 413 publications

(251 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(104 reference statements)

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“…In northern regions, transportation infrastructure experiences severe structural damage due to the degradation of the underlying permafrost (Hjort et al, ), leading to large increases in maintenance costs and reductions in the lifespan of road embankments (Cheng, ; Reimchen, Doré, Fortier, & Walsh, ). The temperatures within a road embankment's sub‐base (i.e., a layer of fill material) and subgrade (i.e., native material under an embankment) are a function of air temperature, atmospheric radiation, wind convection, and heat conduction through the embankment material (Dumais & Doré, ; Hall, Dehdezi, Dawson, Grenfell, & Isola, ; Zhang, Wu, Liu, & Gao, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of heat advection on the thermal regime of roads built on permafrost

Chen

Fortier

McKenzie

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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In northern regions, transportation infrastructure can experience severe structural damages due to permafrost degradation. Water infiltration and subsurface water flow under an embankment affect the energy balance of roadways and underlying permafrost. However, the quantification of the processes controlling these changes and a detailed investigation of their thermal impacts remain largely unknown due to a lack of available long‐term embankment temperature data in permafrost regions. Here, we report observations of heat advection linked to surface water infiltration and subsurface flow based on a 9‐year (from 2009 to 2017) thermal monitoring at an experimental road test site built on ice‐rich permafrost conditions in southwestern Yukon, Canada. Our results show that snowmelt water infiltration in the spring rapidly increases temperature in the upper portion of the embankment. The earlier disappearance of snow deposited at the embankment slope increases the thawing period and the temperature gradient in the embankment compared with the natural ground. Infiltrated summer rainfall water lowered the near‐surface temperatures and subsequently warmed embankment fill materials down to 3.6‐m depth. Heat advection caused by the flow of subsurface water produced warming rates at depth in the embankment subgrade up to two orders of magnitude faster than by atmospheric warming (heat conduction). Subsurface water flow promoted permafrost thawing under the road embankment and led to an increase in active layer thickness. We conclude that the thermal stability of roadways along the Alaska Highway corridor is not maintainable in situations where water is flowing under the infrastructure unless mitigation techniques are used. Severe structural damages to the highway embankment are expected to occur in the next decade.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of heat advection on the thermal regime of roads built on permafrost

Chen

Fortier

McKenzie

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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“…Regarding the second hypothesis, studies have demonstrated that human activity as settlements and gas extraction have major impact on permafrost melt and subsidence (Hjort et al, 2018;L. Liu et al, 2015;Raynolds et al, 2014).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Widespread thawing of permafrost, by present and future climate warming, has potentially huge impacts on natural environments, global climate, and human activities in the Arctic. Ice-rich permafrost thaw readily due to climate change and human activity causing soil subsidence and have a devastating effect on infrastructure (French, 2017;Hjort et al, 2018;Nauta et al, 2015). Despite three decades of intensifying research in Arctic terrestrial and marine environments, these hold still strong surprises for us, shown by the recent discoveries of CH 4 seeps in lakes, in the Arctic ocean, and CH 4 emitting craters in the permafrost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Permafrost seasonal surface changes revealed from Sentinel-1 InSAR time-series, Yamal peninsula

et al. 2020

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Widespread thawing of permafrost in the northern Eurasian continent causes severe problems for infrastructure and global climate. We test the potential of Sentinel-1 SAR imagery to enhance detection of permafrost surface changes in the Siberian lowlands of the northern Eurasian continent at the Yamal peninsula site. We used InSAR time-series technique to detect seasonal surface movements related to permafrost active layer changes. The satellite InSAR time-series analysis has detected continuous movements, subsidence in three zones, which have occurred during the time period from 2017 to 2018. Observed subsidence zones show up to 180 mm yr −1 rates of seasonal active layers changes. These seasonal ground displacement patterns align well with lithology and linked to anthropogenic impact on the permafrost surface changes in the area. The results show that Sentinel-1 mission is of great importance for the longer-term monitoring of active layer thickening in permafrost regions. The combined analyses of the obtained InSAR time series with additional field observations may support regular process monitoring as part of a global warming risk assessment.

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“…But the transition from permafrost to non-permafrost (a uncertain active layer thickness) would be hard for people because of losing sustainable infrastructure (houses, roads, etc). Presently, the infrastructure on permafrost is failing due to permafrost degraded (Hjort et al 2018, Romanovsky et al 2017. Only under an established equilibrium between a warmer climate and active layer may one consider a sustainable life-on permafrost or beyond permafrost (see more in discussion supplementary).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

Parfenova

Tchebakova

Soja

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In the past, human migrations have been associated with climate change. As our civilizations developed, humans depended less on the environment, in particular on climate, because technological and economic development in the span of human history allowed us to adapt to and overcome environmental discomfort. Asian Russia (east of the Urals to the Pacific) is known to be sparsely populated. The population is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and thriving agriculture on fertile soils. We use current and predicted climate scenarios to evaluate the climate comfort of various landscapes to determine the potential for human settlers throughout the 21st century. Climate change scenarios are taken from 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Two CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes, are applied to the large subcontinental territory of Asian Russia. The ensemble January and July temperature anomaly means and annual precipitation are calculated with respect to the baseline 1961-1990 climate. Three climate indices, which are important for human livelihood and well-being, are calculated based on January and July temperatures and annual precipitation: Ecological Landscape Potential, winter severity, and permafrost coverage. Climates predicted by the 2080s over Asian Russia would be much warmer and milder. Ensemble means do not show extreme aridity. The permafrost zone is predicted to significantly shift to the northeast. Ecological Landscape Potential would increase 1-2 categories from 'low' to 'relatively high' which would result in a higher capacity for population density across Asian Russia. Socio-economic processes and policy choices will compel the development that will lead to attracting people to migrate throughout the century. Therefore, understanding ecological landscape potential is crucial information for developing viable strategies for long-term economic and social development in preparation for climate migration and strategic adaptation planning.

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Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century

Cited by 413 publications

References 59 publications

Impact of heat advection on the thermal regime of roads built on permafrost

Impact of heat advection on the thermal regime of roads built on permafrost

Permafrost seasonal surface changes revealed from Sentinel-1 InSAR time-series, Yamal peninsula

Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

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