Demography of a man-made human catastrophe: The case of massive famine in Ukraine 1932-1933

Abstract

Estimates of 1932-34 famine direct losses (excess deaths) by age and sex and indirect losses (lost births) are calculated, for the first time, for rural and urban areas of Ukraine. Total losses are estimated at 4.5 million, with 3.9 million excess deaths and 0.6 million lost births. Rural and urban excess deaths are equivalent to 16.5 and 4.0 per cent of respective 1933 populations. We show that urban and rural losses are the result of very different dynamics, as reflected in the respective urban and rural age structures of relative excess deaths.

Regional variations of 1932–34 famine losses in Ukraine

“…These corrections were applied to the official urban and rural population figures of the eight regions by sex and age, as published by the CSA USSR. The general methodology we used to make these adjustments is the same as the one we used in our previous work on Ukraine (Rudnytskyi et al 2015); here we describe only the additional steps needed for adjustments at the regional level.…”

“…Data on the civilian NKVD staff contingent, also available only for Soviet Ukraine overall, was distributed by oblast and rural-urban areas proportionately to the oblast distributions of the special contingents. Comparing our resulting adjusted figures with the official census figures, we arrived at an overall inflation factor for Ukraine of 2.6 per cent; at the oblast level, the inflation factors vary between 0.8 per cent for Moldavia to 3.3 per cent for Chernihiv oblast (see Rudnytskyi et al 2015 for more details).…”

“…A sophisticated falsification plan had been implemented to hide large population losses that were already documented in the 1937 census (Zhiromskaia 1990). Our adjustments to the census data at the regional level were made using the same methodology as the overall adjustments for Ukraine (Rudnytskyi et al 2015). They included the elimination of two types of falsification: (1) inflated undercount and inflated adjustment factors for control forms; and (2) reassignment-to place of residence at time of census-of the census forms of persons in forced labour camps, "special groups," and military personnel, which had been arbitrarily assigned to different parts of Ukraine.…”

“…The general adjustment approach used for urban and rural areas of Soviet Ukraine is described in Rudnytskyi et al (2015), and the same approach was used for each of the eight regions. Only a brief conceptual description of the adjustment methodology is presented here.…”

“…2 As a result of our research, Holodomor losses have been estimated at 4.5 million, with 3.9 million excess deaths and 0.6 million lost births (Rudnytskyi et al 2015). Direct losses or excess deaths (these terms will be used interchangeably) are additional deaths caused by the famine; indirect births, deaths, and migration data.…”