Dependence of regional ocean heat uptake on anthropogenic warming scenarios

Ma, Xiaofan; Liu, Wei; Allen, Robert J.; Huang, Gang; Li, Xichen

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abc0303

Cited by 41 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…Afterward, the salinity tendency converged to zero. The negative salinity trend during the ramp-up was driven primarily by zonal salinity advection, and secondly by the increasing surface freshwater flux (i.e., mainly by the reduced evaporation; Liu et al, 2020;Ma et al, 2020) and meridional salinity advection (Figure 3c and d). During the ramp-down period, the zonal salinity advection started to increase, and thus, the phase change in the zonal salinity advection was similar to that of the total salinity tendency.…”

Section: Role Of Ocean Circulations In Cooling Hiatusmentioning

confidence: 98%

Global Cooling Hiatus Driven by an AMOC Overshoot in a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario

Shin

Yeh

et al. 2021

Earth's Future

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Section: Role Of Ocean Circulations In Cooling Hiatusmentioning

confidence: 98%

Global Cooling Hiatus Driven by an AMOC Overshoot in a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario

Shin

Yeh

et al. 2021

Earth's Future

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“…Generally, in these models, the AMOC slowdown hypothesis is consistent with a reduced deep convection in the Labrador Sea, which renders cooler surface water transported from the Labrador Sea into the interior of the subpolar gyre (SPG; Gervais et al., 2018). In addition to the AMOC slowdown mechanism, recent studies have also emphasized the contribution of SPG circulation, shortwave cloud feedback, surface wind anomalies induced by warming in the Indian Ocean, and aerosols radiative forcing (Hu & Fedorov, 2020; Keil et al., 2020; Ma et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanism of the Centennial Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Trend in the FGOALS‐g2 Historical Simulation

Fan

Lü

2021

JGR Oceans

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A cold blob, manifested as a centennial cooling trend in sea surface temperature (SST), is observed in the mid‐latitude North Atlantic. The presence of the cold blob is hypothesized as an evidence of a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), based on paleoclimate proxies and global climate models (GCMs). However, the performance of GCMs in simulating the cold blob remains unsatisfactory in terms of the SST cooling rate and the spatial extent. This study investigates the forcing mechanism of the cold blob using the Flexible Global Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Land System Model Grid‐point version 2 (FGOALS‐g2), a GCM that reasonably simulates the observed cooling trend in the subpolar North Atlantic and its spatial pattern. Surface heat budget analysis suggests that the cold blob is largely a result of the imbalance between changes in the heat storage and surface turbulent heat fluxes, exhibiting a cooling and warming effect, respectively. Investigation of ocean heat content indicates that heat advection into the cold blob region has decreased, mainly due to ocean circulation changes. However, in the FGOALS‐g2, both the AMOC slowdown and the reduced meridional heat transport explain a limited portion (less than 50%) of the cold blob sea surface temperature anomaly trend. Overall, complementing existing studies that attribute the cold blob to an AMOC slowdown, our results suggest that additional processes, including subpolar gyre circulation and a synergy between the atmosphere and the ocean, are at work in the formation of the cold blob.

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“…In the context of external forcing of the AMOC, GHG-induced AMOC weakening is consistent with reduced ocean heat loss, as well as increased freshwater input at high latitudes, both of which decrease sea surface density (SSD) in the sinking region of the subpolar North Atlantic 12,13,81,91 . AMOCrelated feedbacks are also likely important, including for example AMOC-induced changes in poleward Atlantic ocean heat transport (OHT) 12,27,81,92 . This feedback is consistent with the aforementioned AMOC-related SST fingerprints 4 , including the notion that 20th century AMOC weakening is related to cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic (i.e., the "warming" hole) due to decreases in poleward OHT (which may also involve other processes 6,7 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air quality improvements are projected to weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through radiative forcing effects

Hassan

Allen

Liu

et al. 2022

Commun Earth Environ

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Observations indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation-a fundamental component of the ocean’s global conveyor belt-is weakening. Although causes remain uncertain, such weakening is consistent with increasing greenhouse gases. Recent studies also suggest that anthropogenic emissions associated with air pollution can impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we use four state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models to quantify how efforts to improve future air quality, via near-term climate forcer mitigation, will impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Future reductions in aerosols, ozone and precursor gases alone induces end-of-century weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by up to 10%. However, when methane reductions are also included, this weakening is offset. The responses are best explained by changes in the North Atlantic radiative forcing. Thus, efforts to improve air quality must also target methane and other greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide to avoid weakening of the world’s major ocean circulation system.

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Dependence of regional ocean heat uptake on anthropogenic warming scenarios

Cited by 41 publications

References 46 publications

Global Cooling Hiatus Driven by an AMOC Overshoot in a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario

Global Cooling Hiatus Driven by an AMOC Overshoot in a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario

Mechanism of the Centennial Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Trend in the FGOALS‐g2 Historical Simulation

Air quality improvements are projected to weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through radiative forcing effects

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