Determinants of Private Saving Level: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

This paper attempts to ascertain the determinants of private saving level in Turkey. We implemented OLS estimations and constructed a VEC model in order to circumvent possible endogeneity bias. Dataset was acquired from the World Bank, Turkish Central Bank and Turkish Statistical Institute. The period examined is from 1988 to 2010. This research found that a) private and public saving rates are partly complementary to each other; b) higher inflation rates and lower levels of social security tend to increase private saving rate because of higher uncertainty; c) easing credit constraints tends to decrease private saving; d) favorable terms of trade promote private saving by increasing income; and e) current account balance influence private saving positively. Keywords: Private Saving, Public Saving, VECM. JEL Classification Codes : D14, D91, E21. ÖzBu çalışma Türkiye'de özel tasarruf seviyesini belirleyen unsurları ortaya çıkarmaya çalışmaktadır. Çalışmada EKK tahminleri yapılmış ve muhtemel bir içsellik hatasından kaçınabilmek için de VEC modeli oluşturulmuştur. Veri seti Dünya Bankası, TCMB ve TÜİK'ten elde edilmiştir. Çalışmanın periyodu 1988-2010'dur. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar ise şu şekildedir: a) Özel ve kamu tasarruf seviyeleri kısmen birbirini tamamlayıcıdır; b) yüksek enflasyon oranları ve düşük sosyal güvenlik seviyeleri yüksek belirsizlikten dolayı özel tasarruf seviyesini arttırma eğilimindedir; c) kredi kısıtlarının hafifletilmesi özel tasarrufu düşürme eğilimindedir; d) uygun dış ticaret hadleri gelir düzeyini arttırarak özel tasarrufu yükseltmektedir ve e) ödemeler bilançosu özel tasarrufu pozitif bir şekilde etkilemektedir.

Factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey: an empirical analysis

“…Research in the context of Turkey is scanty, therefore necessitating further studies. Besides, existing research in Turkey (Ozcan et al, 2003;Van Rijckeghem, 2010;Matur et al, 2012;Tatliyer, 2017) dwells mainly on the determinants of individuals savings behaviour with no study specifically assessing how bank-specific factors enhance deposit growth. Accordingly, this paper intends to bridge this gap in the literature by scrutinizing the short-and long-run determinants of bank deposits in Turkey.…”

Private Sector Savings

“…A positive relation between inflation and savings is explained by Wachtel (1997) through the precautionary saving motive and uncertainty effect 4 , and by Deaton (1977) through involuntary savings and mass illusion 5 . The results presented by Koskela and Virén (1982), Tatliyer (2017), Heer and Süssmuth (2009), Townend (1976), Jongwanich (2010), Ertac (2003, 2012), Bande and Riveiro (2013) confirmed a positive relation between savings and inflation. The effect of interest rates on saving relates to a substitution effect and an income effect which work in opposite directions (Elmendorf, 1996).…”

A kelet-közép-európai háztartási megtakarításokat és eladósodást meghatározó makrogazdasági tényezők = The determinants of household savings

“…Az időskori függőség negatívan befolyásolja a megtakarítási rátát. Az életciklushipotézisből következően az idősebb korosztály nem tud megtakarítani, korábbi megtakarításait éli fel [Tatliyer, 2017]. Az Európai Központi Bank 2016 januárjában megjelent tanulmányában részletesebben vizsgálta az eurózóna tagok háztartási megtakarítási és eladósodottsági helyzetét 2000 és 2013 között.…”

“…Ez kétirányú pozitív kapcsolatot jelez a két változó között, amely konzisztens a keynesi fogyasztási-megtakarítási elmélettel, miszerint a magasabb jövedelműek megtakarítási rátája magasabb. Ciklikus változóként a bizonytalanság, válságos időszak külön kiemelendő; ha a gazdasági kilátásokat tekintve az emberek pesszimisták, vagy ha válságos időszakban élnek, inkább megtakarítanak [Tatliyer, 2017].…”