Gazdasági kitettség és válságállóság exogén sokk esetén A Covid-19-járvány rövid távú gazdasági hatása az EU-ban Összefoglaló: 2020 tavaszán érkezett meg Európába a koronavírus-járvány, ami a gazdasági aktivitás jelentős visszaesését okozta. Jelen tanulmány 25 európai ország esetében vizsgálja, hogy milyen összefüggések láthatók egyes országok makrogazdasági, sebezhetőségi, kitettségi karakterisztikája és a Covid-19-járvány okozta gazdasági válság alatti teljesítménye, az elszenvedett gazdasági sokk mértéke között. A kutatás során klaszterelemzéssel hét csoportra bontottuk az országokat a fiskális és szociális helyzetük, illetve külső sebezhetőségük alapján. Ezt követően az országcsoportok sajátos mintái kerülnek feltárásra a válság alatti termelési, munkaerőpiaci, mobilitási és kockázati felármutatók értékében és alakulásában. Az elemzés arra a következtetésre jut, hogy mindössze az államháztartási állapot és a pénzügyi kockázat indikátora között lehet egyértelműen kapcsolatot igazolni a klaszterek viselkedését vizsgálva. Minden klaszterre igazolást nyert, hogy a mobilitás visszaesése leginkább az ipari termelés lassulásával mutatott együttmozgást, a munkanélküliséggel ugyanakkor nem, ami a munkahelyek megtartását célzó gazdaságpolitikai intézkedések hatását mutathatja. Az eredmények igazolják azt a kezdeti elvi feltevést, hogy egy nem gazdasági jellegű, exogén sokk által okozott gazdasági válságban a rövid távú hatások tekintetében a gazdasági sérülékenység és a kiinduló makrogazdasági-társadalmi állapot magyarázó ereje jóval kisebb, mint a gazdasági okokra visszavezethető krízisek esetében.

Are governments able to continuously boost economic growth by spending for decades? Can the state be a more efficient user of income by improving the structure of public spending? The paper analyses the correlation between various types of public expenditures and GDP growth in different countries of the EU. The database was composed from the Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG) classification of public spending, which contains data of 25 EU economies in the period 1996–2017. Three econometric models were applied in accordance with the empirical practice found in the literature: first-differences general method of moment (GMM), fixed effects panel and ordinary least squares (OLS) models. The expenditures on social protection proved to have a negative, statistically significant and robust impact on GDP growth. The results are similar for general public spending, and while spending on public order also has a significant and robust coefficient, its sign is ambiguous. The novelty of the article relate to the findings on lagged education and health spending, which have a positive impact on GDP growth.

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The coronavirus epidemic arrived in Europe in the spring of 2020, causing a significant slowdown in economic activity. The study examines the preparedness, vulnerability, exposure and performance of 25 European countries during the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 epidemic. Countries can be divided into seven groups with the cluster analysis executed during the research, based on fiscal, social, and external vulnerability indicators. Specific patterns of country groups are explored in the value and evolution of crisis period indicators of production, labor market, mobility and risk premium. The aim of the analysis is to find a correlation between pre-crisis preparedness and the extent of the economic shock caused by the crisis. The research divided the countries into seven groups based on their fiscal and social stance and external vulnerability. Then, specific patterns of country groups are explored in the value and evolution of production, labour market, mobility and risk premium indicators during the crisis. The analysis concludes that a clear link can be established merely between the state of public finances and the indicator of financial risk in the examination of the behaviour of clusters. For all clusters, it was confirmed that the decline in mobility was mostly accompanied by a slowdown in industrial production, but not by unemployment, which may indicate the impact of economic policy measures aimed at maintaining jobs. The results support the initial theoretical assumption that in an economic crisis caused by a exogenous shock originated in non-economic factor, the explanatory power in terms of short-term effects is much lower than in crises caused by economic risks.

The participation of national V4 electronic industry in global value chains is a source of additional output, in addition to, a driver of technological development and employment. The aim of the study is to analyse whether the V4 region has the expertise capacity to upgrade its position in the electronics GVC integrated into the Samsung company. The analysis is built on the theory of GVC and the methodology of surveying the V4 labour market and education related to engineering. The quantitative results are supplemented with research interviews with Samsung managers and related municipal leaders. The analysis concludes on V4 upgrading opportunities in electronics GVCs determined by expertise.