Determining starting time and duration of extreme precipitation events based on intensity

Lu, Er; Zhao, Wei; Gong, Lei; Chen, H.; Wang, H.; Li, X.; Song, Jian; Tu, Jien‐Yi; Higgins, R. Wayne; Halpert,

doi:10.3354/cr01280

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…However, the precipitation intensities on the 8th and 14th of June were quite significant to cause flooding [36][37][38]. Apparently, the precipitation amounts on those dates took place approximately equal to the precipitation amount observed on 13th June and, consequently, the precipitation amount observed during these three particular days can generate intensely substantial flooding by cumulative flood water [39,40]. Thus, the complete effect of these three day-to-day precipitation occurrences could be undervalued if the 50 mm extreme precipitation amount is exclusively judged irrespective of the 40 mm and the 45 mm preceding and succeeding precipitation, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Zaman

Ahmad

Usman

et al. 2020

Water

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This study presented the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHPK). Daily precipitation observations of 30 in situ meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014 were used to estimate the 11 extreme precipitation indices. Additionally, trends in time distribution patterns (TDPs) and return periods were also investigated for event based extreme precipitations (EEP). Results found that the precipitation events with an amount of 160–320 mm and with a concentration ratio of 0.8–1.0 and a duration of 4–7 consecutive days were dominant. The frequency of heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy precipitation days decreased, whereas the frequency of wet, very wet and extremely wet days increased. Most of the indices, generally, showed an increasing trend from the northeast to middle parts. The extreme precipitation events of the 20 and 50-year return period were more common in the western and central areas of NHPK. Moreover, the 20 and 50-year return levels depicted higher values (up to 420 mm) for an event duration with all daily precipitation extremes dispersed in the first half (TDP1) in the Chitral, Panjkora and Jhelum Rivers basins, whilst the maximum values (up to 700 mm) for an event duration with all daily precipitation extremes dispersed in the second half (TDP2) were observed in the eastern part of the NHPK for 20-year and eastern and south-west for 50-year, respectively.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Zaman

Ahmad

Usman

et al. 2020

Water

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“…This approach of the definition through the fixed threshold method can be used for climate variation in a smaller area but is not suitable for the region spanning multiple climatic types. Similarly, for the identification of the extreme precipitation event, a mathematical modelling of the ‘extreme’ intensity–duration (EID) is used to determine the start date and duration of extreme precipitation (Lu et al ., , ). The R95p‐based index in this study is recommended by the ETCCDI, which can eliminate regional factors including the characteristics of weak extrema, low noise, and strong significance.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lu et al . () established mathematical modelling that extrapolated the starting time and duration within an extreme precipitation event and averaged precipitation intensity the strongest comparably (relative to duration) to best describe an extreme precipitation event with that starting time and duration. This method has been well applied in Beijing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in the start, end, and length of extreme precipitation period across China

Guo

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Using the daily precipitation records during 1961–2013 from 686 meteorological stations across China and the atmospheric circulation indexes, this study investigates the spatio‐temporal changes in the occurrence time and length of the extreme precipitation period (EPP), as well as their influencing factors. The results show the following aspects: (1) In the last 53 years, the start dates of the extreme precipitation period (EPPS) generally advanced. The end dates of the extreme precipitation period (EPPE) are delayed, which show an increasing trend. The lengths of the extreme precipitation period (EPPL) in most of the China meteorological stations increased. (2) The spatial patterns of the trends in the occurrence time and length of the extreme precipitation period are similar and show obvious clustering. The occurrence time and length of the extreme precipitation period have obvious spatial gradient differences in their average values. In southeastern China, the average EPPS is earlier, EPPE is later than those in other regions, and their EPPL is prolonged. The EPP in northeastern China begins later and ends earlier, and its EPPL is shorter than that in other regions. (3) The western Pacific subtropical high, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex, Antarctic Oscillation, and western Pacific warm pool have significant effects on the occurrence time and length of EPP over China, and different regions show different effects.

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“…The drought duration (DM) and DS are two inherent features of a drought. However, the DM and DS are not independent, because the DS may rely on DM (Lu et al, 2015b). Knowledge of the joint probability of DM versus DS, would be helpful in quantifying drought characteristics and risks.…”

Section: Coupling Characteristics Of Drought Duration and Severitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Decreasing spatial variability of drought in southwest China during 1959–2013

Liu

Sun

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Southwest (SW) China is a drought prone region. Knowledge of the risks and coupling characteristics of drought duration and severity is essential for hazards mitigation and water management. Based on probability distributions, copulas, Mann–Kendall test, overlapping moving windows approach and the self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) at 69 stations (1959–2013), this study focused on the trends and spatial variability (SV) of (joint) probability drought duration and severity in SW China, and further investigated the potential contributors by analysing the behaviours of precipitation (P), temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), atmospheric moisture flux (MF) and divergence (MFD). In particular, the SV was represented by the standard deviation, the drought duration and severity were characterized by the number of months with PDSI < −0.5 in a year [drought months (DM)] and the absolute mean PDSI in drought months (DS), respectively. Results showed that, the DM, DS, DM5, DS5 (5‐year return levels for DM and DS) increased by 0.058 month year−2, 0.012 month−1 year−1, 0.039 month year−2, and 0.009 month−1 year−1, respectively, and the joint return period T(DM > 4, DS > 2) decreased by −0.20 year year−1. Furthermore, due to the decreasing SV in P, T, RH, WS, MF, and MFD, SV of DM5, DS5 and T(DM > 4, DS > 2) significantly decreased in the past decades, by −0.003 month year−2, −0.006 month−1 year−1 and −0.03 year year−1, respectively. These results indicated that drought risks and severity increased significantly in the past decades over SW China. Most importantly, the decreasing SV implied that drought risks and severity might have become more homogeneous in this region. In other words, droughts became more widely spread throughout SW China in the past decades. Therefore, water agencies and governments should be more proactive in seeking measures to improve water resources management and drought mitigation in this region.

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Determining starting time and duration of extreme precipitation events based on intensity

Cited by 15 publications

References 21 publications

Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Variations in the start, end, and length of extreme precipitation period across China

Decreasing spatial variability of drought in southwest China during 1959–2013

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