Variations in the start, end, and length of extreme precipitation period across China

Guo, Xiangyu; Wu, Zhengfang; He, Hongshi; Du, Haibo; Wang, Lei; Yang, Yonghui; Zhao, Wei

doi:10.1002/joc.5345

Cited by 20 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The first phase in categorizing precipitation time series in accordance with the EEPs (Event-based Extreme Precipitation) is to set a threshold value that defines a precipitation event. Typically, 1 mm is the value considered as a threshold, used to categorize dry and wet days as very light precipitation amount (e.g., below 1 mm), which perhaps would have been ignored and noted as dry days in many cases [42,79,80]. Hence, an event containing more than 1 mm daily precipitation amount during consecutive days is well-defined as a precipitation event.…”

Section: Definition Of Eepmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Zaman

Ahmad

Usman

et al. 2020

Water

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This study presented the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHPK). Daily precipitation observations of 30 in situ meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014 were used to estimate the 11 extreme precipitation indices. Additionally, trends in time distribution patterns (TDPs) and return periods were also investigated for event based extreme precipitations (EEP). Results found that the precipitation events with an amount of 160–320 mm and with a concentration ratio of 0.8–1.0 and a duration of 4–7 consecutive days were dominant. The frequency of heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy precipitation days decreased, whereas the frequency of wet, very wet and extremely wet days increased. Most of the indices, generally, showed an increasing trend from the northeast to middle parts. The extreme precipitation events of the 20 and 50-year return period were more common in the western and central areas of NHPK. Moreover, the 20 and 50-year return levels depicted higher values (up to 420 mm) for an event duration with all daily precipitation extremes dispersed in the first half (TDP1) in the Chitral, Panjkora and Jhelum Rivers basins, whilst the maximum values (up to 700 mm) for an event duration with all daily precipitation extremes dispersed in the second half (TDP2) were observed in the eastern part of the NHPK for 20-year and eastern and south-west for 50-year, respectively.

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Section: Definition Of Eepmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Zaman

Ahmad

Usman

et al. 2020

Water

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“…The CMIP5 model is driven by climate, so it is very important to establish climatic zones in the research area. Numerous studies on precipitation in China have been performed based on geographical location or watershed zoning [22,42,43]. Therefore, according to the precipitation characteristics in China, four climatic zones were established for the comparison and projection of extreme precipitation.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections

Zhang

Yang

Ren

et al. 2021

Water

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In the context of global climate change, it is important to monitor abnormal changes in extreme precipitation events that lead to frequent floods. This research used precipitation indices to describe variations in extreme precipitation and analyzed the characteristics of extreme precipitation in four climatic (arid, semi-arid, semi-humid and humid) regions across China. The equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method was used to downscale and bias-correct daily precipitation in eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs). From 1961 to 2005, the humid region had stronger and longer extreme precipitation compared with the other regions. In the future, the projected extreme precipitation is mainly concentrated in summer, and there will be large areas with substantial changes in maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5) and precipitation intensity (SDII). The greatest differences between two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are in semi-arid and semi-humid areas for summer precipitation anomalies. However, the area of the four regions with an increasing trend of extreme precipitation is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario than that under the RCP4.5 scenario. The increasing trend of extreme precipitation in the future is relatively pronounced, especially in humid areas, implying a potential heightened flood risk in these areas.

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“…To reflect the extreme temperature and precipitation in multiple aspects, 14 extreme climate indices recommended by the ETCCDI were employed in this study ( Table 3 ), including seven extreme temperature indices (the diurnal temperature range (DTR), the numbers of summer days (SU), the number of ice days (ID), the highest daily maximum temperature (TXx), the lowest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the warm spell duration index (WSDI), and the cold spell duration index (CSDI)) and seven extreme precipitation indices (the highest 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), the extremely wet-day precipitation (R99pTOT), the heavy precipitation days (R20mm), the total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), the precipitation intensity (SDII), the consecutive dry days (CDD), and the consecutive wet days (CWD)) [ 20 , 21 , 40 , 66 , 67 , 68 , 69 , 70 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Rx5day and CDD indices can also be applied to evaluate potential floods because persistent heavy rainfall promotes the occurrence of floods and subsequent landslides [ 71 ]. These indices can also be classified into four categories: absolute indices, threshold indices, percentile indices, and duration indices [ 69 , 72 ]. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test is applied to establish whether the trends of these indices are significant [ 73 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data

Niu

Feng

Chen

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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The Yellow River Basin (YLRB) and Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) are heavily populated, important grain-producing areas in China, and they are sensitive to climate change. In order to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme climate events in the two river basins, seven extreme temperature indices and seven extreme precipitation indices were projected for the periods of 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 using data from 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and the delta change and reliability ensemble averaging (REA) methods were applied to obtain more robust ensemble values. First, the present evaluation indicated that the simulations satisfactorily reproduced the spatial distribution of temperature extremes, and the spatial distribution of precipitation extremes was generally suitably captured. Next, the REA values were adopted to conduct projections under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in the 21st century. Warming extremes were projected to increase while cold events were projected to decrease, particularly on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, the Loess Plateau, and the lower reaches of the YZRB. In addition, the number of wet days (CWD) was projected to decrease in most regions of the two basins, but the highest five-day precipitation (Rx5day) and precipitation intensity (SDII) index values were projected to increase in the YZRB. The number of consecutive dry days (CDD) was projected to decrease in the northern and western regions of the two basins. Specifically, the warming trends in the two basins were correlated with altitude and atmospheric circulation patterns, and the wetting trends were related to the atmospheric water vapor content increases in summer and the strength of external radiative forcing. Notably, the magnitude of the changes in the extreme climate events was projected to increase with increasing warming targets, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario.

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Variations in the start, end, and length of extreme precipitation period across China

Cited by 20 publications

References 59 publications

Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin

Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections

Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data

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