Development of a nomogram to predict surgical site infection after open reduction and internal fixation for closed pilon fracture: a prospective single-center study

Abstract

Background To explore the risk factors and develop a nomogram in order to predict surgical site infection (SSI) after open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) for closed pilon fractures (CPF). Methods A prospective cohort study with one-year follow-up was carried out in a provincial trauma center. From January 2019 to January 2021, 417 adult patients with CPFs receiving ORIF were enrolled. A Whitney U test or t test, Pearson chi-square test, and multiple logistic regression analyses were gradually used for screening the adjusted factors of SSI. A nomogram model was built to predict the risk of SSI, and the concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used for evaluating the prediction performance and consistency of the nomogram model. The bootstrap method was employed to test the validity of the nomogram. Results The incidence of SSI after ORIF for CPFs was 7.2% (30/417): 4.1% (17/417) of superficial SSIs and 3.1% (13/417) of deep SSIs. The most common pathogenic bacteria were Staphylococcus aureus (36.6%, 11/30). The multivariate analysis showed tourniquet use, longer preoperative stay, lower preoperative albumin (ALB), higher preoperative body mass index (BMI) and hypersensitive C-reactive protein (Hs-CRP) were independent risk factors of SSI. Additionally, the C-index and bootstrap value of the nomogram model were 0.838 and 0.820, respectively. Finally, the calibration curve indicated that the actual diagnosed SSI had good consistency with the predicted probability, and the DCA showed that the nomogram had clinical value. Conclusions Tourniquet use, longer preoperative stay, lower preoperative ALB, higher preoperative BMI and Hs-CRP were five independent risk factors of SSI after closed pilon fractures treated by ORIF. These five predictors are shown on the nomogram, with which we may be able to further prevent the CPS patients from SSI. Trial registration NO 2018-026-1, October /24/2018, prospectively registered. The study was registered in October 24, 2018. The study protocol was designed based on the Declaration of Helsinki and admitted by the Institutional Review Board. The ethics committee approved the study on factors related to fracture healing in orthopedic surgery. Data analyzed in the present study were acquired from the patients who underwent open reduction and internal fixation from January 2019 to January 2021.