Diminishing potential for tropical reefs to function as coral diversity strongholds under climate change conditions

Adam, Arne A. S.; Garcia, Rodrigo; Galaiduk, Ronen; Tomlinson, Sean; Radford, Ben; Thomas, Lynda; Richards, Zoe T.

doi:10.1111/ddi.13400

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 126 publications

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“…In contrast, GEA mismatches were predicted to be highest in Ningaloo Coast World Heritage Area, indicating mismatches in local adaptive potential of these populations to increasing temperatures, especially under RCP 8.5 conditions in 2090–2100. Ningaloo has been predicted to serve as future stronghold of coral biodiversity under RCP 8.5 climate conditions in 2090–2100 (Adam et al, 2021). However, coral reefs within the Ningaloo Coast World Heritage Area have been impacted over the last decade (Gilmour et al, 2019) with parts of the reef system been damaged in recent years by mass bleaching and cyclones (Depczynski et al, 2013; Gilmour et al, 2019; Moore et al, 2012; Speed et al, 2013), with some reefs showing limited recovery (Babcock et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

et al. 2022

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Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs.Predicting the future vulnerability of reef-building corals, the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems, is crucial for cost-effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we combine regional population genetic connectivity and seascape analyses to explore patterns of genetic offset (the mismatch of geneenvironmental associations under future climate conditions) in Acropora digitifera across 12 degrees of latitude in Western Australia. Our data revealed a pattern of restricted gene flow and limited genetic connectivity among geographically distant reef systems. Environmental association analyses identified a suite of loci strongly associated with the regional temperature variation. These loci helped forecast future genetic offset in gradient forest and generalized dissimilarity models. These analyses predicted pronounced differences in the response of different reef systems in Western Australia to rising temperatures. Under the most optimistic future warming scenario (RCP 2.6), we predicted a general pattern of increasing genetic offset with latitude. Under the extreme climate scenario (RCP 8.5 in 2090-2100), coral populations at the Ningaloo World Heritage Area were predicted to experience a higher mismatch between current allele frequencies and those required to cope with local environmental change, compared to populations in the inshore Kimberley region. The study suggests complex and spatially heterogeneous patterns of climate-change vulnerability in coral populations across Western Australia, reinforcing the notion that regionally tailored conservation efforts will be most effective at managing coral reef resilience into the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

et al. 2022

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“…To produce the species diversity map for macrofungi, we transformed the model output into binary (presence/absence) predictions using the maximum of the sum of specificity (quantifying commission errors) and sensitivity (quantifying omission errors; Max SSS) as a threshold for each species. The Max SSS threshold minimizes the error rate of both commission and omission errors and has been widely used in species distribution models (Adam et al, 2021; Fourcade et al, 2018; Liu et al, 2013; Vincent et al, 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How future climate and tree distribution changes shape the biodiversity of macrofungi across Europe

Wang

Skidmore

et al. 2023

Diversity and Distributions

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“…The seasonal temperature regimes at RIMR and JBMP are, therefore, suitable for the more extensive development of coral communities, which may explain the high coral cover at these locations. At the same time, this likely also places these locations at higher risk of tropicalization with coral species predicted to expand their range to mid-and high-latitude regions in response to future climate change [81].…”

Section: Total Coral Covermentioning

confidence: 99%

Coral Communities on Marginal High-Latitude Reefs in West Australian Marine Parks

Ross¹,

French²,

Lester³

et al. 2021

Diversity

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Many temperate reefs are experiencing a shift towards a greater abundance of tropical species in response to marine heatwaves and long-term ocean warming worldwide. Baseline data for coral communities growing in high-latitude reefs is required to better understand ecosystem changes over time. In this study, we explore spatial and temporal trends in the distribution of coral communities from 1999 to 2019 at 118 reef sites within the five marine parks located in the south-west of Western Australia (WA) between 30° to 35° S. Our estimates of coral cover were generally low (<5%), except for a few sites in Jurien Bay Marine Park and Rottnest Island Marine Reserve where coral cover was 10% to 30%. Interannual changes in genera assemblages were detected but were not consistent over time, whereas significant temporal increases in coral cover estimates were found at the lowest latitude site in Jurien Bay. Coral assemblages were primarily distinguished by Turbinaria spp. at Marmion Marine Park and Ngari Capes Marine Park, and Pocillopora spp. and Dipsastraea spp. at Rottnest Island and Jurien Bay. Our findings suggest that conditions in south-west WA are favorable to the ongoing survival of existing genera and there were minimal signs of expansion in coral cover at most study sites. Coral cover and composition on these reefs may, however, change with ongoing ocean warming and increased occurrence of marine heatwaves. This study provides a valuable benchmark for assessing future changes in coral assemblages and highlights the need for targeted hard-coral surveys to quantify subtle changes in high-latitude coral community assemblages.

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Diminishing potential for tropical reefs to function as coral diversity strongholds under climate change conditions

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 20 publications

References 126 publications

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

How future climate and tree distribution changes shape the biodiversity of macrofungi across Europe

Coral Communities on Marginal High-Latitude Reefs in West Australian Marine Parks

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