Distribution of rose hip (Rosa canina L.) under current and future climate conditions

Arslan, E. Seda; Akyol, Ayhan; Örücü, Ömer K.; Sarikaya, Ayse Gul

doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01695-6

Cited by 30 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Accordingly, in addition to bioclimatic factors, we selected five edaphic factors and two topographic factors in our model. Some studies ignore the redundant information introduced by highly correlated variables in the modelling process [49]. In this study, we used the Spearman correlation coefficient to examine multicollinearity and select variables with smaller VIFs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Huang

Hong-yan

et al. 2021

Forests

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Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Huang

Hong-yan

et al. 2021

Forests

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“…Back in the early 1900s, Grinnell pointed out that climate plays an important role in determining the distribution of species. Plants, which serves as an important indicator, will not only be affected by climate change, but also affect the climate through negative feedback [6,7]. A research team has already found that global warming could cause plants to migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

et al. 2022

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Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×104 km2, and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×104 km2), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii.

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“…Climate change is anticipated to cause a rise in average temperature and a rise in rainfall during the rainy seasons. [4,5], and a decrease in rainfall during the dry period. This will, in turn, cause a decrease in the amount of natural vegetation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of Three Endemic Plant Species in Pakistan

Qazi¹,

Saqib²,

Zaman-ul-Haq³

et al. 2023

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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The use of species distribution modelling under climate change to anticipate alterations in species' habitats is a concern in ecological conservation. This research aimed to simulate the present suitable habitat distribution of three species that are rare and endemic to Pakistan and to analyse the possible climate change consequences on habitat suitability in the future (2050 and 2070). We projected potentially suitable habitat distributions using two shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSPs 245 and SSPs 585). The potential distribution was modelled with MaxEnt using species presence-only data, and environmental variables. The modelling approach included seven climate-related variables in total. The model was validated using AUC, TSS, and Jackknife. For all species, the AUC score was >0.85. The present distribution of all three species has been significantly impacted by precipitationrelated factors (bio 14, bio 17, and bio 18). The temperature and topographic diversity also impacted the distribution. The potentially suitable habitat for Buxus papillosa and Rydingia limbata is projected to increase (39 % and 44 % respectively) in the 2050s under SSPs 245, and the potentially suitable habitat for Gentiana kurroo is projected to decrease (24%) in 2070s under SSPs 585. All species may expect appropriate habitats to expand or shrink, however, there will probably be a significant loss of native habitats. We recommend designating climate-change-affected places as conservation protection zones based on these results.

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Distribution of rose hip (Rosa canina L.) under current and future climate conditions

Cited by 30 publications

References 49 publications

Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of Three Endemic Plant Species in Pakistan

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