Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

Bradford, John B.

doi:10.1007/s10021-011-9460-8

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…However, even with the wide range in predicted productivity, the most important spatial drivers of this variation were relatively consistent among future climate scenarios and suggest the productivity of Great Lakes forests switch from being temperatureto water-limited by the end of the century. These findings are consistent with other studies that show cold temperate and boreal forests are currently temperature-limited (Hyvonen et al 2007;Gough et al 2008;Reich and Oleksyn 2008;Bradford 2011;Dieleman et al 2012;Fisichelli et al 2012). We found, however, that predicted temperature increases under the warmest climate scenario (GFDL A1FI) exceeded forest-type-specific temperature thresholds and increased vapor pressure deficits enough to shift current Great Lakes forest systems to being water-limited by 2099.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

et al. 2013

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Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature, and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon (C), water, and nitrogen (N) cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature- to water-limited by the end of the century.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

et al. 2013

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“…In addition, observational experiments suggest forest complexity is coupled with NPP and other ecosystem functions (Stoy et al. , Bradford , Gamfeldt et al. , Gillman et al.…”

Section: Ecological Intersections Of Disturbance Succession and Nepmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several forest modeling experiments similarly suggest linkages between canopy complexity and production, with plant functional diversity positively correlated with forest growth (Falster et al 2011, Coomes et al 2014, Duveneck et al 2014, Shanin et al 2014, Pedro et al 2015. In addition, observational experiments suggest forest complexity is coupled with NPP and other ecosystem functions (Stoy et al 2008, Bradford 2011, Gamfeldt et al 2013, Gillman et al 2015.…”

Section: Innovative Viewpointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disturbance, complexity, and succession of net ecosystem production in North America's temperate deciduous forests

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Century-old forests in the U.S. upper Midwest and Northeast power much of North America's terrestrial carbon (C) sink, but these forests' production and C sequestration capacity are expected to soon decline as fast-growing early successional species die and are replaced by slower growing late successional species. But will this really happen? Here we marshal empirical data and ecological theory to argue that substantial declines in net ecosystem production (NEP) owing to reduced forest growth, or net primary production (NPP), are not imminent in regrown temperate deciduous forests over the next several decades. Forest age and production data for temperate deciduous forests, synthesized from published literature, suggest slight declines in NEP and increasing or stable NPP during middle successional stages. We revisit long-held hypotheses by EP Odum and others that suggest low-severity, high-frequency disturbances occurring in the region's aging forests will, against intuition, maintain NEP at higher-thanexpected rates by increasing ecosystem complexity, sustaining or enhancing NPP to a level that largely offsets rising C losses as heterotrophic respiration increases. This theoretical model is also supported by biological evidence and observations from the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in Michigan, USA. Ecosystems that experience high-severity disturbances that simplify ecosystem complexity can exhibit substantial declines in production during middle stages of succession. However, observations from these ecosystems have exerted a disproportionate influence on assumptions regarding the trajectory and magnitude of age-related declines in forest production. We conclude that there is a wide ecological space for forests to maintain NPP and, in doing so, lessens the declines in NEP, with significant implications for the future of the North American carbon sink. Our intellectual frameworks for understanding forest C cycle dynamics and resilience need to catch up to our more complex and nuanced understanding of ecological succession.

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“…Numerous processes have been invoked to explain the increase in species richness with net primary productivity (NPP; Bradford, 2011;Evans, Greenwood, & Gaston, 2005;Gillman et al, 2015). However, the persistence of this pattern across taxa and spatial scales remains unexplored.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Niche packing and expansion account for species richness–productivity relationships in global bird assemblages

Pellissier

Barnagaud

Kissling

et al. 2018

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aim Niche theory proposes that increases in species richness along an environmental gradient are associated with a packing of species inside the niche space or an expansion of the niche space. We test whether and under what conditions an increase in bird species richness along a gradient of resource availability is associated with an expansion or packing of the niche as measured based on traits related to resource use. Location Global. Time period Current. Major taxa studied Birds. Methods We measured birds' realized niche space as the standardized departure between observed total trait range and its null expectation (functional richness: SES.FRic) in 12,188 cells worldwide. We first correlated both species richness and this measurement along the global net primary productivity (NPP) gradient using linear regressions. Second, we investigated the non‐stationarity of the species richness–NPP relationship with Lee's bivariate correlation, a measure of the spatial association of two variables. We then assessed the number of cells exhibiting a significant positive species richness–NPP association and a significant negative or positive SES.FRic. Third, we assessed whether species of species‐rich assemblages occur within or outside the niche space of species‐poor assemblages. Results At a global scale, we found that species richness and SES.FRic increased with NPP. We also showed that cells with a significant positive association between species richness and NPP exhibited niche packing (1,699 assemblages out of 12,188) more than niche expansion (five assemblages). Niche packing was associated with complex biomes such as tropical rain forests. Finally, by showing that species in species‐rich assemblages predominantly occur within the niche space of species‐poor assemblages, we showed that the increase in SES.FRic with NPP contributed little to the increase in species richness. Main conclusion Although niche volume increases with species richness along an NPP gradient, we confirmed that niche packing is the pattern most associated with the species richness–NPP relationship at a global scale.

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Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

Cited by 12 publications

References 72 publications

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

Disturbance, complexity, and succession of net ecosystem production in North America's temperate deciduous forests

Niche packing and expansion account for species richness–productivity relationships in global bird assemblages

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