Do National Numerical Fiscal Rules really shape fiscal behaviours in developing countries? A treatment effect evaluation

Tapsoba, René

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.03.003

Cited by 78 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This is consistent with Minea and Tapsoba (2014) who found a significant impact of IT on fiscal discipline. The results also confirm the direct discipline-enhancing effect of FR on fiscal policy found in the literature (Alesina and Perotti, 1995;Alesina et al, 1999;Debrun et al, 2008b;Dabla-Norris et al, 2010;Gollwitzer, 2011;Tapsoba, 2012;Guerguil et al, 2017).…”

Section: ] I N F L a T I O N T A R G E T I N G A N D F I S C A L supporting

confidence: 88%

“…On the fiscal side, governments have tried to tackle chronic excessive deficits and procyclical policies with fiscal policy rules (FR). A growing literature has suggested that welldesigned FRs are associated with greater fiscal discipline and less procyclicality (Alesina and Perotti, 1995;Alesina et al, 1999;Debrun et al, 2008b;Dabla-Norris et al, 2010;Gollwitzer, 2011;Tapsoba, 2012;or Guerguil et al, 2017). 1 To the best of our knowledge, however, empirical analyses assessing the impact of macroeconomic frameworks on policy outcomes have tended to consider monetary and fiscal policy in isolation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions

Combes

Debrun

Minea

et al. 2017

The Economic Journal

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International audienceWe examine how inflation targeting (IT) and fiscal rules (FR) affect inflation and fiscal performancein a large panel of countries during 1990–2009. In line with theory, both FR and IT appear to shapemonetary and fiscal outcomes. Significant cross-effects seem to exist as IT strengthens fiscalperformance, whereas the combination of FR and IT tends to be associated with more disciplinedmacroeconomic policies than if only one of these institutions operates. Our findings suggest that ITand FR affect the coordination of the policy mix, and point to potential benefits of reformingmacroeconomic frameworks in a holistic fashion

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Section: ] I N F L a T I O N T A R G E T I N G A N D F I S C A L supporting

confidence: 88%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions

Combes

Debrun

Minea

et al. 2017

The Economic Journal

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“…The latter are computed as the number of observations extracted from primary studies and are not equally distributed. For instance, just two studies out of 30 (Nerlich and Reuter, 2013: 215 observations;Tapsoba, 2012: 220 observations) account for almost half of the full sample (435 observations in relation to 1,033 observations). In order to avoid biased descriptives or point estimates (section 5), we apply an analytical weighting procedure and weight each observation with the inverse of the share of observations per study in relation to the full sample.…”

Section: Descriptive Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis

Heinemann

Moessinger

Yeter

2018

European Journal of Political Economy

157

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We implement a meta-regression-analysis for the budgetary impact of numerical fiscal rules based on 30 studies published in the last decade. The existing empirical evidence points to a constraining effect of rules on fiscal aggregates. However, this seemingly optimistic message is strongly weakened as our analysis points to a bias if the potential endogeneity of fiscal rules is not explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, our analysis provides evidence for the presence of a publication bias. Both sources of bias reduce the statistical precision of obtained effects below usual levels of statistical significance. In addition, we offer suggestive evidence for the effect size based on a small coherent sub-sample and provide recommendations for future research on the budgetary impact of fiscal rules.

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“…The latter are computed as the number of observations extracted from primary studies are not equally distributed. For instance, just two studies out of 30 (Nerlich and Reuter, 2013: 215 observations;Tapsoba, 2012: 220 observations) account for almost half of the full sample (435 observations in relation to 1,033 observations). In order to avoid biased descriptives or point estimates (section 5), we apply an analytical weighting procedure and weight each observation with the inverse of the share of observations per study in relation to the full sample.…”

Section: Descriptive Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy? A Meta-Regression-Analysis

2016

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Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy? A Meta-Regression-Analysis AbstractWe implement a meta-regression-analysis for the budgetary impact of numerical fiscal rules. Based on 30 studies published in the last decade, we offer a consensus estimate with respect to the level of statistical significance, provide suggestive evidence for the effect size, and identify study features of relevance for the measured impact of fiscal rules. Overall, the results document a constraining impact of rules. However, this impact is weakened if refined identification strategies are employed. Moreover, the results provide evidence for a publication bias in which journals are more likely to report constraining and statistically significant effects compared to working papers. We further provide recommendations for future research on the budgetary impact of fiscal rules.

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Do National Numerical Fiscal Rules really shape fiscal behaviours in developing countries? A treatment effect evaluation

Abstract: Avertissement :Les commentaires et analyses développés n'engagent que leurs auteurs qui restent seuls responsables des erreurs et insuffisances.

Cited by 78 publications

References 22 publications

Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions

Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions

Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis

Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy? A Meta-Regression-Analysis

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