Does housing create votes? Explaining the electoral success of the AKP in Turkey

Marschall, Melissa J.; Aydogan, Abdullah; Bulut, Alper

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2016.02.010

Cited by 73 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Focusing more closely on the data reveals that this is due to the above-average household size in the provinces in Southeast Turkey, which tend to vote for pro-Kurdish parties. 7 As some previous scholars have demonstrated (Erdogan, 2013;Marschall, Aydogan & Bulut, 2016), we find weak support for economic voting in Turkish elections. Voters tend to reward economic growth, but unemployment is not a significant determinant of voting for the JDP.…”

Section: Empirical Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 59%

Refugees and Elections: The Effects of Syrians on Voting Behavior in Turkey

Fisunoğlu

Sert

2018

International Migration

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In the wake of the Syrian civil war, more than three million people have fled to Turkey, which now hosts the largest refugee population on earth. Making up 4.42 per cent of the total population in Turkey as of February 2018, Syrian refugees are nevertheless spread unevenly within its borders. The ratio of refugees to the local population ranges from as high as 99per cent in the city of Kilis to as low as 0.05per cent in Sinop. This article presents findings from the empirical study of the effect of this geographical variation on election outcomes in Turkey, after the arrival of major refugee populations in 2012. Drawing on a unique subnational dataset and ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS), and difference‐in‐differences (DiD) regressions, the study compares cities hosting few refugees (control group) with cities with large refugee populations (treatment group) to determine whether significant differences in voting patterns emerged. Our findings show a negative, but insignificant, impact on the incumbent party. The findings have policy implications for Turkey as well as any country that experiences a considerable flow of refugees.

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Section: Empirical Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 59%

Refugees and Elections: The Effects of Syrians on Voting Behavior in Turkey

Fisunoğlu

Sert

2018

International Migration

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“…TOKI plays a key role in providing jobs, contracts and subsidized housing at the local level. By using time series data across 900 municipalities, Marschall, Aydogan and Bulut (2016) shows the linkage between TOKI housing 30 The intergovernmental transfers are channeled to municipalities and SPAs through the Provinces Bank, except metropolitan municipality transfers which are directly deposited to the metropolitan municipalities' account by the Ministry of Finance. In case of debt delinquency on part of municipalities, the Provinces Bank is used for deductions up to 40 percent from their transfer revenues.…”

Section: Making Local Finances Publicly Accountablementioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Recent Changes on Local Government Discretion and Accountability in Turkey

Güner¹,

Yılmaz²

2017

mjecon

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The first generation local government reforms in Turkey partially granted discretion to local governments. However, they have largely failed to improve downward accountability towards citizens. In 2012, the government has embarked on the second generation reforms which aimed to achieve economies of scale in municipal service provision through municipal amalgamation. The government redesigned the configuration of municipalities, abolished special provincial administrations in metropolitan municipal jurisdictions and converted villages to neighborhoods of municipalities. This paper extends the earlier analysis on local government discretion and accountability to these recent changes. The main focus of the paper is on fiscal discretion and accountability since these changes have mostly affected the fiscal structure of local governments. Analyzing the data issued by the Ministry of Finance, the preliminary results show that local governments have become more dependent on intergovernmental transfers.

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“…The phenomenal success and the very long tenure of the AK Parti, despite the traditionally slippery nature of the Turkish electorate landscape, has fascinated and puzzled political scientists (see e.g., Carkoglu, 2012;Marschall, Aydogan, and Bulut, 2016). Since the introduction of free elections in 1950, only the AK Parti has managed to maintain its majority status for more than a decade.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2 Classical mechanisms such as economic voting and voters' evaluation of the economic performance of the party as well as clientalistic party-voter networks seem to provide only partial explanations (Marschall et al, 2016). AK Parti's clientalistic distributive politics through the Mass Housing Administration (TOKI) projects (Marschall et al, 2016) and the strategic deployment of social assistance (Aytac, 2014) are other factors that have contributed to the AK Parti's success.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regression Discontinuity diagnostics reveal statistical anomalies in Turkish elections

Aksoy

2016

Electoral Studies

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Using Regression Discontinuity diagnostics we document a number of statistical anomalies in the 2004 Turkish mayoral elections. The governing party that controls the parliament is much more likely to win close races than lose. Moreover, compared to close governing party losses, there is a sharp drop in turnout and contending party votes in close governing party wins. Finally, the parties that disproportionately lose very close races are exclusively ideological competitors of the governing party.Among the potential mechanisms that may create those anomalies, electoral manipulation seems to a plausible explanation. Those anomalies show that the outcomes of very close popular elections can be non-random and that the assumption of the continuity of the expected potential outcomes at the threshold could be violated. We discuss implications of our findings for Regression Discontinuity Designs and for understanding the consolidation of the right-wing electorate in Turkey during the last decade.

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Does housing create votes? Explaining the electoral success of the AKP in Turkey

Cited by 73 publications

References 18 publications

Refugees and Elections: The Effects of Syrians on Voting Behavior in Turkey

Refugees and Elections: The Effects of Syrians on Voting Behavior in Turkey

Impact of Recent Changes on Local Government Discretion and Accountability in Turkey

Regression Discontinuity diagnostics reveal statistical anomalies in Turkish elections

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