Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?

Wright, George; Bradfield, Ronald; Cairns, George

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.003

Cited by 162 publications

(164 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The information and ideas generated from initial context investigations then inform the students generation of scenarios using the intuitive logics (IL) approach (8,9). The specific scenario method employed in the course (8) provides a framework for exploring complexity and ambiguity in an inclusive and semi-structured way.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy

Bradfield¹,

Cairns

Wright

2015

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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In this paper we provide an introduction to our teaching of scenario analysis. Scenario analysis offers an excellent instructional vehicle for investigating 'wicked problems'; issues that are complex and ambiguous and require trans-disciplinary inquiry. We outline the pedagogical underpinning based on action learning and provide a critical approach from the intuitive logics school of scenario analysis. We use this in our programme in which student groups engage in semi-structured, but divergent and inclusive analysis of a selected focal issue. They then develop a set of scenario storylines that outline the limits of possibility and plausibility for a selected timehorizon year. The scenarios are portrayed not as narratives, but as vehicles for exploration of the causes and outcomes of the interplay between forces in the contextual environment that drive the unfolding future in the context of the focal issue. In this way, we provide internally-generated challenges to both individual preconceptions and group-level thinking.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy

Bradfield¹,

Cairns

Wright

2015

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Self Cite

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“…Essa abordagem integra um conjunto de fatores políticos, econômicos, sociais, tecnológicos, ecológicos e legais que vão moldar o futuro (WRIGHT et al, 2013). A maior parte desses fatores é externa à companhia.…”

Section: A Abordagem Empregada Na Pesquisaunclassified

“…Podem ser, por exemplo, decisões de construção de uma nova fábrica, alocação de recursos, desenvolvimento de novos produtos ou mudança de área profissional (HUSS e HONTON, 1987;SCHWARTZ, 2004). Nessa fase, é definido o escopo do projeto, como o horizonte temporal, área geográfica, mercado consumidor, produtos e tecnologia (RINGLAND, 2006;SCHOEMAKER, 1995;WALSH, 2005;WRIGHT et al, 2013). É preciso haver foco para que o trabalho seja útil (PETERSON et al, 2003).…”

Section: A Abordagem Lógico-intuitiva Na Literaturaunclassified

“…São analisadas questões de mercado, política, economia, tecnologia, meio ambiente, entre outras (HUSS e HONTON, 1987, SCHOEMAKER, 1995SCHWARTZ, 2004). Isso pode ser feito de várias formas, como por meio de revisão da literatura, brainstorming com a equipe de projeto, entrevistas com especialistas e consultoria externa (HUSS e HONTON, 1987;SCHWARTZ, 2004;SHELL, 2008, WRIGHT et al, 2013 As principais incertezas identificadas são a base para construção dos cenários. Inicialmente, pode-se agrupar todos os elementos positivos -em relação à estratégia atual -em um cenário e todos os negativos no outro, a fim de obter combinações extremas (SCHOEMAKER, 1995).…”

Section: A Abordagem Lógico-intuitiva Na Literaturaunclassified

“…Outra forma de delinear os cenários iniciais é selecionando duas ou três principais incertezasem termos de previsibilidade e impacto no ambiente -e combinando seus outcomes extremos de forma imaginativa mas plausível (PETERSON et al, 2003;POSTMA e LIEBL, 2005;SCHOEMAKER, 1995;SCHWARTZ, 2004;WRIGHT et al, 2013). O uso de apenas duas ou três incertezas pode parecer uma simplificação grosseira da realidade, mas a experiência ao longo dos anos mostra que a inclusão de muitos fatores consome muitos recursos e não oferece mais descobertas do que uma lógica desenvolvida cuidadosamente com poucas variáveis (RINGLAND, 2006 (RINGLAND, 2006;SCHOEMAKER, 1995).…”

Section: A Abordagem Lógico-intuitiva Na Literaturaunclassified

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Prospecção e bases de formação da demanda e oferta de etanol combustível nos Estados Unidos

Ishikawa¹

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Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Goodwin

Gönül

Önkal

et al. 2019

Behavioral Decision Making

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Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.

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Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?

Cited by 162 publications

References 36 publications

Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy

Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy

Prospecção e bases de formação da demanda e oferta de etanol combustível nos Estados Unidos

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

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